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dewilson58 12-11-2024 08:51 AM

Inflation Up
 
Up tick.

:oops:

tophcfa 12-11-2024 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 2392666)
Up tick.

:oops:

Don’t need a government statistic to confirm that. A trip to the grocery store or the renewal notice for homeowners or health insurance makes it abundantly clear.

CoachKandSportsguy 12-11-2024 10:12 AM

Rich People's inflation
 
1 Attachment(s)
per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

Decadeofdave 12-11-2024 10:47 AM

People under 40 have never seen inflation like this. We have lived it a couple of times, always planned for it. This time is different because we are locked into the high level. Typically demand destruction reduces it. ...layoffs, recession etc.

dano121 12-11-2024 11:02 AM

I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.

Bill14564 12-11-2024 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Decadeofdave (Post 2392720)
People under 40 have never seen inflation like this. We have lived it a couple of times, always planned for it. This time is different because we are locked into the high level. Typically demand destruction reduces it. ...layoffs, recession etc.

Historical inflation rates show otherwise. (2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2011...)

CarlR33 12-11-2024 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dano121 (Post 2392726)
I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.

Interesting you say your son says that given the UHC discussion….he was 26 had it all and gave it all away.

New Englander 12-11-2024 11:15 AM

Going to the Supermarket is painful. So what's causing this painful inflation? I just have to feed myself. I can only imagine how tough it is on families.

CoachKandSportsguy 12-11-2024 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Decadeofdave (Post 2392720)
People under 40 have never seen inflation like this. We have lived it a couple of times, always planned for it. This time is different because we are locked into the high level. Typically demand destruction reduces it. ...layoffs, recession etc.

this 2020's inflation period was transitory, though a bit longer than the federal reserve had hoped, the inflation of the 70s was not transitory like this, but was more relentless because the cost of crude and derivatives usage was very, very inefficient as compared to today, and there was a much higher mfg demand for energy than today. .

So the 70's inflation is still the boogie man in many boomers memory and are still haunted to this day. . see the decade of dave's post above for confirmation

Bill14564 12-11-2024 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dano121 (Post 2392726)
I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.

Housing costs do seem to have increased disproportionately. At the same time, both my nieces (30 and 28) recently purchased homes.

kkingston57 12-11-2024 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2392700)
per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

Guess the new Gulfstream or sport fishing boat is now off my bucket list

kkingston57 12-11-2024 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dano121 (Post 2392726)
I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.

Not a true housing market when most of the sales are made by long term investors who buy with cash.

manaboutown 12-11-2024 12:16 PM

Inflation report reveals not so egg-cellent news as egg prices jump 8.2% in one month

jimhoward 12-11-2024 12:21 PM

Its 2.7% year-over-year if I read the reports correctly. I can live with that. We definitely don't want deflation, and we don't want runaway inflation. 2.7% seems comfortable.

gorillarick 12-11-2024 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimhoward (Post 2392753)
Its 2.7% year-over-year if I read the reports correctly. I can live with that. We definitely don't want deflation, and we don't want runaway inflation. 2.7% seems comfortable.

the books are being cooked

tophcfa 12-11-2024 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2392733)
this 2020's inflation period was transitory, though a bit longer than the federal reserve had hoped, the inflation of the 70s was not transitory like this, but was more relentless because the cost of crude and derivatives usage was very, very inefficient as compared to today, and there was a much higher mfg demand for energy than today. .

So the 70's inflation is still the boogie man in many boomers memory and are still haunted to this day. . see the decade of dave's post above for confirmation

Big difference between then and now for savers is that back in the day you could buy a 10 year treasury bond yielding 15.75 percent to help offset the pain of inflation. When our country, and it’s general population, weren’t strapped with unsustainable debt, the federal reserve was actually able to take adequate measures to effectively combat inflation.

KAM+6 12-11-2024 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by manaboutown (Post 2392752)

Egg prices are due mostly because laws were pasted that hens must be cage free. And bird flu that wiped out millions of hens. On top of that, feed prices went up. AMA for years, was promoting eggs as the enemy and not to eat them. All BS as eggs are high protein and no calories. So demand outweighs supply.

Road-Runner 12-11-2024 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by manaboutown (Post 2392752)

Haven't you heard, "this 2020's inflation period was transitory, though a bit longer than the federal reserve had hoped". So there is no inflation now, it was just transitory...

Stu from NYC 12-11-2024 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2392700)
per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

Gas is still fluctuating up and down week to week.

Food both groceries and restaurants still going up. Very understated

CoachKandSportsguy 12-11-2024 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2392772)
Gas is still fluctuating up and down week to week.

Food both groceries and restaurants still going up. Very understated

food can be very regionally affected. The CPI is for all USA, alaska, hawaii, and continental US. . . So it's a number which includes a very huge area with lots of variations through out the sampling.

hard products like this, the CPI is pretty good estimate. Within services, it's a dumpster fire of a sampling process. Owner's equivalent rent is the worst dumpster fire with health insurance next.

so what's your egg spending as a percentage of total spend??
versus insurance and taxes??

I know people have individual pain points and cherry pick examples to suit their own biases, but eggs? one carton lasts two weeks for us, = 24 max cartons per year, which = $100 +/- not significant. . breakfast or lunch at any non fast food joint is easily $20 per person, $25-30 if hungry with tip. . .

That's all labor inflation from increasing minimum wage to compete for labor and mandatory labor rates. .

not to be argumentative, and its not that these numbers are perfect, its that they are what the government and lots of decisions are made on. . government and private decisions using the best information possible. .

Gas buddy analyst, gas prices are the lowest in several years across the country. . .
yeah, stations play games with customers, inventory, expected increases, etc. but gas prices on an inflation adjusted basis, very, very , very cheap.

Topspinmo 12-11-2024 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2392700)
per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

Most very poor don’t own vehicles so no need for gasoline.

Topspinmo 12-11-2024 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2392817)
food can be very regionally affected. The CPI is for all USA, alaska, hawaii, and continental US. . . So it's a number which includes a very huge area with lots of variations through out the sampling.

hard products like this, the CPI is pretty good estimate. Within services, it's a dumpster fire of a sampling process. Owner's equivalent rent is the worst dumpster fire with health insurance next.

so what's your egg spending as a percentage of total spend??
versus insurance and taxes??

I know people have individual pain points and cherry pick examples to suit their own biases, but eggs? one carton lasts two weeks for us, = 24 max cartons per year, which = $100 +/- not significant. . breakfast or lunch at any non fast food joint is easily $20 per person, $25-30 if hungry with tip. . .

That's all labor inflation from increasing minimum wage to compete for labor and mandatory labor rates. .

not to be argumentative, and its not that these numbers are perfect, its that they are what the government and lots of decisions are made on. . government and private decisions using the best information possible. .

Gas buddy analyst, gas prices are the lowest in several years across the country. . .
yeah, stations play games with customers, inventory, expected increases, etc. but gas prices on an inflation adjusted basis, very, very , very cheap.


Just cause crud oil goes up down like rollercoaster (do to futures stock trades) don’t mean other commodities will go down ever IMO, sure might drop few cents but NEVER drop enough to make differences.

JMintzer 12-11-2024 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2392817)
food can be very regionally affected. The CPI is for all USA, alaska, hawaii, and continental US. . . So it's a number which includes a very huge area with lots of variations through out the sampling.

hard products like this, the CPI is pretty good estimate. Within services, it's a dumpster fire of a sampling process. Owner's equivalent rent is the worst dumpster fire with health insurance next.

so what's your egg spending as a percentage of total spend??
versus insurance and taxes??

I know people have individual pain points and cherry pick examples to suit their own biases, but eggs? one carton lasts two weeks for us, = 24 max cartons per year, which = $100 +/- not significant. . breakfast or lunch at any non fast food joint is easily $20 per person, $25-30 if hungry with tip. . .

That's all labor inflation from increasing minimum wage to compete for labor and mandatory labor rates. .

not to be argumentative, and its not that these numbers are perfect, its that they are what the government and lots of decisions are made on. . government and private decisions using the best information possible. .

Gas buddy analyst, gas prices are the lowest in several years across the country. . .
yeah, stations play games with customers, inventory, expected increases, etc. but gas prices on an inflation adjusted basis, very, very , very cheap.

For most people in TV, eggs are minor expense, since we're not the "typical family of 5"...

For those people, it's a significant cost...

dewilson58 12-11-2024 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMintzer (Post 2392896)
For most people in TV, eggs are minor expense, since we're not the "typical family of 5"...

For those people, it's a significant cost...

Us...............maybe a dozen per month.
:shocked:

tophcfa 12-11-2024 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Road-Runner (Post 2392770)
Haven't you heard, "this 2020's inflation period was transitory, though a bit longer than the federal reserve had hoped". So there is no inflation now, it was just transitory...

Transitory, what a load of BS. I hate terms that attempt to deceive people into believing a fictitious agenda. The inflation we are experiencing is permanent and significant. Real meaning, prices make a transitory shift from much lower to very expensive and permanent.

Bill14564 12-11-2024 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tophcfa (Post 2392912)
Transitory, what a load of BS. I hate terms that attempt to deceive people into believing a fictitious agenda. The inflation we are experiencing is permanent and significant. Real meaning, prices make a transitory shift from much lower to very expensive and permanent.

Is inflation still at the 5%/6%/7% level or has it come back down?

At what time in the past 40 years have overall prices decreased?

Cuervo 12-12-2024 05:47 AM

Inflation is going to continue, it might level off every now and then but before you know it, it creeps in again. Compare the income in the fifties when an employee was making a $100 a week and was making ends meet, today that person would be homeless. There are a number of factors that control inflation. Supply and demand, companies that become cooperations which have to satisfy their management and their investors which today is usually us, employee shortages. It's a balancing act, the population grows to fast it causes inflation, the population grow to slow it cause inflation. Though most of us want to pin this on one fall guy, it's truly a combination of factors.

Sparky99 12-12-2024 06:11 AM

For now, he will come back as his situation improves.

ithos 12-12-2024 06:15 AM

Looks like Congress needs to pass a sequel to the Inflation Reduction Act.

Inflation Reduction Act | U.S. Department of the Treasury

Caymus 12-12-2024 06:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ithos (Post 2392942)
Looks like Congress needs to pass a sequel to the Inflation Reduction Act.

Inflation Reduction Act | U.S. Department of the Treasury

Not a sequel but an antidote.:smiley:

Berwin 12-12-2024 06:36 AM

News items: Black Friday sales and Thanksgiving holiday travel set new record highs.

BobGraves 12-12-2024 07:26 AM

The 2020's inflation is NOT transitory. It's just that the rate of increase has lowered. Prices are still high and there has not been a reduction in prices just a reduction in the rate of increase.

BobGraves 12-12-2024 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cuervo (Post 2392933)
Inflation is going to continue, it might level off every now and then but before you know it, it creeps in again. Compare the income in the fifties when an employee was making a $100 a week and was making ends meet, today that person would be homeless. There are a number of factors that control inflation. Supply and demand, companies that become cooperations which have to satisfy their management and their investors which today is usually us, employee shortages. It's a balancing act, the population grows to fast it causes inflation, the population grow to slow it cause inflation. Though most of us want to pin this on one fall guy, it's truly a combination of factors.

They keep inflation going because it's a hidden tax and beneficial big banks. Inflation: The Hidden Tax

Rickanvic 12-12-2024 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dano121 (Post 2392726)
I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.

Oh, what I would have given for today's interest rates when we started out. We were under Reaganomics. My husband was a vet so we were able to get a VA loan. 1983. Interest rates were 16.5% and 6 points!

Bill14564 12-12-2024 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobGraves (Post 2392959)
The 2020's inflation is NOT transitory. It's just that the rate of increase has lowered. Prices are still high and there has not been a reduction in prices just a reduction in the rate of increase.

In which of the last 40 years was there a reduction of prices?

In a healthy, growing economy prices will increase. Economists may argue over how large that increase should be but Americans have been comfortable with something in the 1.5% - 2.5% range. The current 2.7% is slightly higher than that range but is nothing like the 5% we have seen at other times in the past.

It was the high inflation rates that were expected to be transitory not any inflation at all.

opinionist 12-12-2024 08:11 AM

Honest numbers on inflation

Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page

john352 12-12-2024 08:23 AM

Please justify "shelter costs coming down."
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2392700)
per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

In your chart the only "shelter cost" that I saw was "Rent of primary residence." and it was up 4.4%. In addition "Electricity" was up 3.1%.

CoachKandSportsguy 12-12-2024 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobGraves (Post 2392959)
The 2020's inflation is NOT transitory. It's just that the rate of increase has lowered. Prices are still high and there has not been a reduction in prices just a reduction in the rate of increase.

Price levels have nothing to do with inflation.
Inflation is all about the rate of change of price levels.

The rate of change of price change is nearly back to where it was, which is the definition of transitory. . the arguments around transitory center around how long did it take. . there is a bit of a bull whip effect by the pandemic which is smoothing out as we get farther away from the pandemic and closer back to "normal"

Inflation - Wikipedia

The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index.[9] As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.

however, you really do not want total economy price deflation, that is very bad for the economy.
the goal is disinflation from a high rate to a stable growth rate.

The target rate of 2% by the federal reserve is a bit low in my opinion, due to the employee behavioral bias of acceptable merit increases. The optimal point is where labor rate inflation is higher than the product inflation rate, and the net addition of the two is around 3%. . Then the economy has positive GDP momentum.

apologies if you still disagree. . .

CoachKandSportsguy 12-12-2024 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by john352 (Post 2393003)
In your chart the only "shelter cost" that I saw was "Rent of primary residence." and it was up 4.4%. In addition "Electricity" was up 3.1%.

and the trend of past months has been higher.
electricity around the US is a regulated industry, I used to work in the industry. Regulatory demands have pushed up the infrastructure cost of local customer delivery. Be careful what you wish for. . all those fancy graphs and personalized electrical usage all come with an added cost, which never goes away

I loved BrianL's example of the owner of a custom home build who asked for all the change orders, and was shocked that it cost extra money. . . same effect with medical records and custom graphs, historical data trends, etc. . which never goes away

Sjshanl 12-12-2024 08:55 AM

TV golf is doing their part to support inflation. If you play every championship course once next year it will cost you 5.28% more than this year based on winter rates.


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