Villages Home Inventory has Exploded
 

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

I totally agree
 

Exactly. We are approaching good times.

Supply and demand. Too much supply and not enough demand is a buyers market. As mentioned in a major Florida newspaper, corporate real estate investors have already purchased several thousand Florida properties. How this will play out remains to be seen.

I think it's perfectly clear how it will play out, it's the same basic premises that has defined Economics for centuries, Supply & Demand.

The real estate folks are great at quoting and posting all this noise about how pricing has not changed much over the last year, but where their reasoning falls apart, is they're not looking at "Days Supply", which is really the number that matters. When I bought in TV 4 years ago, I think the Days Supply was in the 30 day range ... now it's probably in the 90 day range.

Homes don't go on the market for "fun" ... they go on the market because people need to sell for one reason or another. The vast majority of homes on the market will eventually sell, for that very reason ... and prices will drop until they do.

Lots of interior homes sitting as in the past. Those with views and larger homes don’t sit long. Those who bought and built view/4/3 homes, are still selling.

You hit the nail on the head, there are lot more pre-owned Chevy's for sale than Bentley's. 4/3's on view lots are few and far between.

You correctly defined a "healthy real estate market".

"The key local indicator is housing inventory, which is a measure of supply and demand. For a market to be considered healthy, the inventory should stand at 4-6 months. That means it would take between 4 and 6 months to sell every house on the market. "

4 Tips to Help You Read the Real Estate Market Like a Pro • Articles and Tips • Househappy(R)

Good, moving down there spring of 2026, We are going to rent the first year just to make sure TV is for us.

It’s certainly a buyers market right now. But that is real estate. Some years buyer -some years seller market.

Houses that have sq ft and “updated” and priced appropriately are selling right now within 30-60 days.

People feel an updated house is still worth a higher price based on their lot view but those are sitting.

No one’s making a killing. Some houses are selling below what the current owner paid for the house a few years ago.

MLS will provide that info. But TV realty will not. TV realty tries to keep prices steady from year to year.

I disagree, specifically as it pertains to The Villages pre-owned home market.

As people are fond of proclaiming, "The Village market is different than a traditional market". It is, in some ways.

While "Days of Inventory" is one of the most critical considerations when characterizing most any sort of market, consideration has to be given to the historical average vs current conditions. Not an absolute statement that a 4-6 months supply equals a healthy market.

The days of when 4-6 months supply equal a healthy market in a desirable area, are long gone. That might work in Peoria, but it doesn't in Metro Boston, NY, LA, or any other large metro market, that's seen huge appreciation in the post-Covid world. IMO, The Villages falls into that category. 4-6 months supply of inventory in TV, is a harbinger of rapidly declining prices.

Not sure of "homes will be more affordable" We had several (four) up for sale recently in our village of 54 homes. They all went quickly. One was taken off the market.(?) They all doubled or more their original value and our Village is either 12 or 13 years old. One sold for more than double at two million dollars.

The Villages is a Chevy neighborhood, with perhaps a Pontiac or Buick thrown in.

You need to go a long way from The Villages, to find a "Bentley neighborhood" ... perhaps Naples?

Sold and when, all public record available on county web site.

Exactly what would be expected after 12-13 years, based on the last 60 years of real estate.

Real estate has appreciated approximately 4.5% per year since the 60's. Compounded, that would mean a home would sell for about 1.8 times it's selling price of 12-13 years ago.

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

Less than 1% of homes are generally on the market at any given time. 3% for sale, would mean there is a 3 year supply of homes for sale. The sky would fall.

So you're saying 1,500 homes (3%) is a 3-year supply? In what world are there only 500 re-sales per year (42 per month) in The Villages?

No Demand For Price Point
 

No, it means the prices are falling, and THEY ARE INDEED FALLING!

Average days on market is almost 70 days. Prices are being cut by sellers which in part has caused the revaluation of the market. Every month for the last eight months there have been more homes entering the MLS than those that have been sold. So yes, the market is saturated and yes, prices are being cut by about 6% from OAP. The sky isn’t falling unless you have to sell and you bought your house in 2022 or later and are selling. This crash was forecast way back in the fall of 23!

Square foot averages have dropped from last year by quite a bit.

The number of homes is probably closer to 60,000 rather than 50,000. I read that it is not unusual in a retirement community to have 3% of occupied homes for sale.

Right ! Could (possibly ?) even slow down the rate of quick turn over investors and air B&B owners interest in the community too !

There's also that old saying in the real estate business: it doesn't matter what the owner thinks his/her property is "worth", or what the agent thinks he/her can "get". They all sell eventually regardless of the market, when they are priced at an amount someone will pay ! The amount someone is willing to pay is the only genuine "valuation" of most anything, land, home, auto, or household item !

Part of the Calculus
 

And part of the calculus of a home buyer is the lending rate which will stubbornly stick around for a while. Inflation stats for January show a rate of 2.9 percent and more than 50% of the homes purchased here are financed through a mortgage. Dr. Horton has managed to skirt this a little by offering tiered rates for their new construction sales.

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.

You can go to almost any city and see same thing lots for sale at over inflated prices. The villages has always been over inflated and will continue. There will always be large amount for sale? Why ever month people move in or out, and die. Only matter of time. The problem this time inflation and slim job opportunity’s make it buyers market if they got funds and means to buy?

Not surprised, some think they can make more money with money not invested in home.

If you want actual solid MLS (NOT VLS) information, delivered every Tuesday, that is data driven, factual, updated weekly, and tracked annually, see David's videos. Here's a link to the most current one. I suggest you FF two minutes to get past the intro if you're already familiar with him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stuSD_-vynw

He will show you EXACTLY what mortgage rate are doing, EXACTLY how many homes are on the market in which areas, and EXACTLY how much price reductions are by how many and how long houses have been on the market and where all these variables are trending.

Actually, based upon the budgets for each of the CDD's and the Lady Lake/Lake County district, the number is just over 80,000.

I was surprised by that number to but most likely it’s because the snow birds don’t want to give up the northern home with the equity tied up so they have to mortgage the one here until the day they become full time.

No one can accurately predict what the housing market will do tomorrow.
You can only assume because of past history, but there are too many factors that can turn that on its head.
Let us not forget the housing crash in the 2008, all the experts did not believe that would ever happen.
If you want to get an insight and a laugh watch a movie titled the "Big Short".

I think most of us would be very happy if corporate investors stayed out of the housing market. I’m hoping the new peeps in office do something about that.

Location! Location! Location! 1 mile south of Lake Sumter Landing

I feel very Fortunate. I sold mine for sale by owner and sold within two weeks after the third person looked at it.

Just my opinion, BUT if you are serious about moving down to the Villages, now is the time to purchase. I doubt if the market will be as great for buyers a year from now as it is now. I may be wrong, but the economy is pretty fluid and it can change fast. This is a buyer's market like the Villages has probably never seen before. I have no basis for my opinion, but I have lived here for over 12 years and have never seen so many homes for sale before. Keep in mind, when shopping for a home here, the difference between a home WITH a bond and the price of a home without a bond. You now have hundreds of homes to choose from and now is a great time to find a home in a neighborhood that YOU can choose and not one that you might normally have to settle for. It's like a child in a candy shop, with everything at a sale price. Some homes are priced up to $50K less than they might have sold for about 8 months ago.

OH NO, the inventory tumbled all the way down to 665 Zillow listings.

The market is crashing, the sky is falling, the world is ending.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

:faint::faint:

Zillow IS the MLS- it sweeps MLS data and town/county records to maintain data regarding selling price, reductions in price and sold price. You are correct VLS is not MLS and not represented on Zillow until after closing and recording the data in town/county records. Then you’d see sold price.

We bought designer model 4yrs ago using a 2.9% mtg. Money Markets were paying over 5%.

The prevailing opinion (& admittedly it's only opinion/guesswork) is that MLS & VLS each have about 50% of the pre-owned home business.

A reasonable guess, would be that there are 1400-1500 homes in TV, on the market. That represents almost 2%, which is about double what would generally be expected. 2% is definitely a Buyer's Market. 3% would be the bottom falling out.

It’s actually not a buyers market now. Not according to anything I’ve seen or read. It’a a sellers market leaning toward neutral. Things are different in TV though. Also, there are lots of pending homes and very few new homes available.

I remember a year or so ago, someone on here kept saying the new homes in south weren’t going to sell that there were so many left that nobody would ever want to live that far south. Well, they sold…I’m guessing lots of people bought as rentals and that ship has sailed. The rentals aren’t what they used to be. Lots of available places all year round.

We are Frogs here in TV. New Designer home, built 10 years ago. It's great for us and we have zero desire to move to a smaller/larger home. So the local real estate market is not of great concern to US.

But, when we CROAK, hopefully the resale market will be up then.

So True and for More Money
 

Location Baby! 4/3 with pool on golf course selling for very high. Watched a couple sell for 1.4 and 1.6 within 1 month. Almost a double! Amazing how the high end goes up when the low end goes down. While the supply of low ends are increasing, the supply of high ends is low. Low supply price up, high supply price down. It ain't complicated.......Bottom line is location as usual. Low end with good location will get price jump over others. But, it's nice to see more Villa's dropping to the 200-220 range, their location not as important as affordability for many.


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