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-   -   Global mfg will never relocate (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/global-mfg-will-never-relocate-357885/)

CoachKandSportsguy 04-08-2025 07:20 AM

Global mfg will never relocate
 
Lets get this straight:

The grand plan trying to reverse 40 years of product trade optimization is very, very risky, and most likely not going to happen. First reason is that the cost is very high and the time frame is very long. To effectively move $3 per hour (est foreign labor rate) human labor to a $15 per hour (living wage cost of living domestic labor rate) requires either the US domestic economy to be put into a depression, or the US consumer will need huge wages increases to buy the domestic products without huge government UBI.

Examples, Tariffing a country like Vietnam, whose labor rate is $3 per hour and whose US tariff rate is 2%, with a 30% tariff, and then have them remove their tariff, reduces their product sales to the US, and still doesn't allow Vietnam the increased cost of living to afford US exports, as no one is increasing their labor rates. If the US tariff is removed, that still doesn't change the current status enough to increase the Vietnam std of living enough to afford US products.

The US's current wealth lost by labor manufacturing, has been replaced by high tech creation, innovation and products, primarily software. The real problem with software is that it can replace human labor, and that problem has a different solution than mfg relocation.

A bakery and a flour-sugar distributor will always run a trade imbalance. The distributor will never buy an equal amount of bakery goods. Same concept applies to Vietnam. . . or any other low wage mfg trading partner.

Second: US mfg is now 10-15% of the US labor. . . to build new capacity will take several years, and Nutlick believes that AI/robots can perform the labor in these new factories. So if this happens, the US consumer wins, but there are no jobs being brought back to the domestic shores. Therefore, where are the labor gains? And if this path is chosen, and the president isn't reelected, or doesn't corrupt the Congress and Judiciary branch to give him unlimited time in office, all this investment can be for not with a new president

Therefore, corporations will just sit and wait it out, and will start cutting labor to survive. It didn't work in the 1930s, and it still won't work in the 2020's.

good luck

Stu from NYC 04-08-2025 07:36 AM

Time will tell if you are right but there are parts that can be made here that were outsourced to China.

Not going to be what it was but can see some additional factories here.

MrFlorida 04-08-2025 08:23 AM

They will start to come back, but it will take time.

Whatnext 04-08-2025 08:31 AM

Better buy your new iPhone now before the possiblef 104% tariff materializes.
As they say, "its not over until the fat lady sings!"

CoachKandSportsguy 04-08-2025 08:51 AM

In the mean time, here is how the business imports currently works:

A small business orders $100,000 of widgets from China.
The tariffs are 50%, easy math, the company owes $100,000 to the supplier, and 50,000 to US customs.
The business has to pay prior to getting the widgets released, or pay by owed date.
If they don't pay, most likely end of business, bankrupt.

Does the business all of a sudden have enough working capital to pay the US tariff?
The predominant answer is no, so needs an additional line of credit to pay the tariff.
OK, so the business gets one. . pays the tariff, and gets the widgets.

The next question is if the small business has enough product pricing power to pass that 50% increase on to customers?
Lets say gross margin is 20%, so prior to the tariff:

Pre Tariff Math = $125,000 Sales - S100,00 Cost of Goods Sold = $20,000 Gross margin to pay fixed overhead costs
Post Tariff Math = $175,000 Sales - $150,000 Cost of Goods Sold = $20,000 Gross Margin to pay fixed overhead costs.

175,000 / 120,000 - 1 = 40%

Now the cost of product is 50% higher, so in order to get the same margin dollars to pay for US overhead expenses,
the sales price must rise 40%. .

The only way for sales to remain at 40% higher, is for all competitors to raise prices 40%,
and for the demand being inelastic, meaning that people will buy the widget regardless of price.

However, demand being inelastic is highly improbable, so
1) the consumer will continue to buy with 40% product inflation?
2) reconsider the purchase and delay / not buy any more?

That is how the Great Depression happened.

Good Luck to us!

fdpaq0580 04-08-2025 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whatnext (Post 2422153)
Better buy your new iPhone now before the possiblef 104% tariff materializes.
As they say, "its not over until the fat lady sings!"

HEY! Who you callin' a lady? 🤨😡

Topspinmo 04-08-2025 10:20 AM

Well any jobs coming back IMO NOT bad thing. Better than none or loosing more. According to some AI will replace humans anyway. I just hope AI don’t get smart enough to eliminate humans beings, AI may not have conscious? O wait….

thelegges 04-08-2025 10:43 AM

Apple is already on their continent plan, so no worries. Then again diehard 🍎 will survive.
Our plan gives us a new iPhone every other year. So no worries on whatever up charge can be

Pugchief 04-08-2025 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2422111)
Time will tell if you are right but there are parts that can be made here that were outsourced to China.

Not going to be what it was but can see some additional factories here.

There are also things that MUST be made here. Pharmaceuticals are the most pressing, but there are others.

Aces4 04-08-2025 11:01 AM

I am old enough to remember how nice American products were.. clothing, shoes, Harley's, glass, cotton products, appliances, (so relieved Speed Queen is still in America), and so forth. Most stuff now is dime store cheap and crappy.

I think we need to bear in mind that employment in the USA is critical and I'll never be convinced this country is far better off with China holding our tab and taking our employment. Never.

bopat 04-08-2025 11:06 AM

China doesn't innovate, they copy

Robots work 24x7x365, China can't compete with that

The old globalism is gone. The new automation, AI and robotics is here and growing.

It will be fueled by high quality USA made products just like before.

Arctic Fox 04-08-2025 11:16 AM

Tariffs are simply a tax on the US public.

Most of the stuff imported from China can never be made here as cheaply, even with a 100% tariff. Even items that can will be manufactured in factories that are full of robots, not workers, so any benefits to employment numbers will be minimal.

Globalization is far from perfect, but it is preferable to isolationism.

Aces4 04-08-2025 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arctic Fox (Post 2422214)
Tariffs are simply a tax on the US public.

Most of the stuff imported from China can never be made here as cheaply, even with a 100% tariff. Even items that can will be manufactured in factories that are full of robots, not workers, so any benefits to employment numbers will be minimal.

Globalization is far from perfect, but it is preferable to isolationism.


Isolationism you mean like China?

How cheap would we need things to be here if ALL people had jobs and were paid a decent wage and benefits? How about ditching the stock market and companies remain private, how much could be passed on in lower pricing since you don't have to feed those who have contributed nothing? How much less would be siphoned off taxpayers if there were fewer people on welfare and Medicaid?

Working citizens make for a much healthier society and would help squelch the hopeless in inner cities. Idleness is the devils workshop.

EastCoastDawg 04-08-2025 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422216)
Working citizens make for a much healthier society and would help squelch the hopeless in inner cities. Idleness is the devils workshop.

True, but tariffs do NOT bring jobs back; they just make things more expensive for you and me.

All of the money raised from tariffs goes straight into the Government coffers.

CoachKandSportsguy 04-08-2025 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bopat (Post 2422209)
China doesn't innovate, they copy

Robots work 24x7x365, China can't compete with that

The old globalism is gone. The new automation, AI and robotics is here and growing.

It will be fueled by high quality USA made products just like before.

robots don't increase human employment, they cannabalize human work, so who is going to fund your Social Security then?

The only answer for robotic automation is to tax capital as high as salaries were in the depression, and then provide back universal basic income, (UBI) . . otherwise, agricultural and industrial tax and spend policies won't have a chance.

Aces4 04-08-2025 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422256)
robots don't increase human employment, they cannabalize human work, so who is going to fund your Social Security then?

The only answer for robotic automation is to tax capital as high as salaries were in the depression, and then provide back universal basic income, (UBI) . . otherwise, agricultural and industrial tax and spend policies won't have a chance.

Interesting, so you think robots will garner and manage their own engineering designs, materials, operation, manufacturing, delivery, maintenance, redesign, obsolescence replacements, electricity, housing, insurance and so forth?

Aces4 04-08-2025 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EastCoastDawg (Post 2422247)
True, but tariffs do NOT bring jobs back; they just make things more expensive for you and me.

All of the money raised from tariffs goes straight into the Government coffers.

And that is why there is such a push at this moment to eliminate almost all import, VAT and tariffs from the trade system.

Money in the government coffers? Now there is an interesting premise.

Papa_lecki 04-08-2025 02:04 PM

Oh good, all the agronomy experts are now global economics experts.

FloridaGuy66 04-08-2025 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFlorida (Post 2422146)
They will start to come back, but it will take time.

Most of those jobs are not the type of jobs that anyone here should want. Bringing in jobs where people are getting paid minimum wage to be on their feet for 9 hours a day for just above minimum wage isn't going to improve this country one bit.

If anything, they will move some manufacturing here, but it will be automated (robots) and use 10% of the labor force. So in the end, there will be almost no American jobs created.

CoachKandSportsguy 04-08-2025 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422259)
Interesting, so you think robots will garner and manage their own engineering designs, materials, operation, manufacturing, delivery, maintenance, redesign, obsolescence replacements, electricity, housing, insurance and so forth?

my dad was a mechanical design engineer, college after WW2. He started with mathematics log tables and a slide rule. He graduated to a mechanical calculator, of which I got my hand stuck in when I was 7-8 years old. Then when the TRS 80 came out, i programmed the involute curve calculation to speed his long calculations. He loved that. . but CAD/CAM software, reduced his whole department to 1 and him.

And that was in the 2000s

So yeah, there is huge progress continuing with technology to eat as many jobs as possible. You gave a list, great, and those jobs might never go away, but there may be 2 instead of 5 people employed at those jobs.

I have taken a single person's 4 hour daily job and reduced it to 5 minutes for me, and then automated overnight. Human cannabalization continues

FloridaGuy66 04-08-2025 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422259)
Interesting, so you think robots will garner and manage their own engineering designs, materials, operation, manufacturing, delivery, maintenance, redesign, obsolescence replacements, electricity, housing, insurance and so forth?

I worked for a number of years in an automotive plant that had all of those roles on site. Those skilled roles made up around 20% of the jobs. The other 80% were people getting paid poorly to do the same 2-3 tasks for 8-10 hours per day like a living robot.

I felt sorry for those people spending 20-30 years of their lives 5-6 days a week doing boring, repetitive tasks that permanently damage their bodies to the point where their retirement isn't going to involve any physical activity like golf or pickleball.

It's a shame people are somehow being fooled into thinking that factory jobs are the ones we should want more of. We need more jobs that utilize modern technologies, biotechnology is something that we're falling very far behind on is one example.

Stu from NYC 04-08-2025 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bopat (Post 2422209)
China doesn't innovate, they copy

Robots work 24x7x365, China can't compete with that

The old globalism is gone. The new automation, AI and robotics is here and growing.

It will be fueled by high quality USA made products just like before.

Actually China is a copier but they do some innovation and that is growing. Do not think they will catch up with us but they are very good at stealing our technology.

Stu from NYC 04-08-2025 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422280)
my dad was a mechanical design engineer, college after WW2. He started with mathematics log tables and a slide rule. He graduated to a mechanical calculator, of which I got my hand stuck in when I was 7-8 years old. Then when the TRS 80 came out, i programmed the involute curve calculation to speed his long calculations. He loved that. . but CAD/CAM software, reduced his whole department to 1 and him.

And that was in the 2000s

So yeah, there is huge progress continuing with technology to eat as many jobs as possible. You gave a list, great, and those jobs might never go away, but there may be 2 instead of 5 people employed at those jobs.

I have taken a single person's 4 hour daily job and reduced it to 5 minutes for me, and then automated overnight. Human cannabalization continues

I do believe that AI will create jobs that are well paying and doing functions that we can never imagine. Till will tell.

CoachKandSportsguy 04-08-2025 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2422288)
Actually China is a copier but they do some innovation and that is growing. Do not think they will catch up with us but they are very good at stealing our technology.

We educated many of them, they will catch up and overtake us on the current path. China wants to overtake us in technology, and we want to over take them in manufacturing. .

Not thinking this is a fair fight, since mfg is capital intensive, and software in human intensive. . as the US is running out of debt capacity

EastCoastDawg 04-08-2025 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422260)
And that is why there is such a push at this moment to eliminate almost all import, VAT and tariffs from the trade system.

?

Have you actually been following the news for the past week?

Aces4 04-08-2025 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422280)
my dad was a mechanical design engineer, college after WW2. He started with mathematics log tables and a slide rule. He graduated to a mechanical calculator, of which I got my hand stuck in when I was 7-8 years old. Then when the TRS 80 came out, i programmed the involute curve calculation to speed his long calculations. He loved that. . but CAD/CAM software, reduced his whole department to 1 and him.

And that was in the 2000s

So yeah, there is huge progress continuing with technology to eat as many jobs as possible. You gave a list, great, and those jobs might never go away, but there may be 2 instead of 5 people employed at those jobs.

I have taken a single person's 4 hour daily job and reduced it to 5 minutes for me, and then automated overnight. Human cannabalization continues

Why hasn't this cannabalization hit China? The more jobs in America, the more jobs that are needed. I think it's a little early for UBI and the death of the USA but then I believe in us.

jimhoward 04-08-2025 03:45 PM

I don’t think too many people will build factories in the US depending on tariffs that could be repealed to be competitive. The people that will built factories in the US will be those, like Hyundai, that were going to do it anyway.

Aces4 04-08-2025 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimhoward (Post 2422314)
I don’t think too many people will build factories in the US depending on tariffs that could be repealed to be competitive. The people that will built factories in the US will be those, like Hyundai, that were going to do it anyway.

If that's the case, we will continue to pay much more for anything we purchase in that we will be shelling it out for unemployed benefits, Medicaid, housing/rental assistance, heat/electricity assistance, food stamps and more. People who aren't involved in their existence lose their identity and pride.

We will be paying the nickels one way or another, there are no free rides.

Aces4 04-08-2025 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EastCoastDawg (Post 2422301)
?

Have you actually been following the news for the past week?

I've had a good peek at it and have to say it is encouraging. Many things the wrongs created will not be corrected without some sacrifice, that won't happen.

If I was a stock market person, I would be investing now. That not is not advice for others, it is just my perspective of things to come.

jbartle1 04-08-2025 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422340)
I've had a good peek at it and have to say it is encouraging. Many things the wrongs created will not be corrected without some sacrifice, that won't happen.

If I was a stock market person, I would be investing now. That not is not advice for others, it is just my perspective of things to come.

Funny how the correction and sacrifice doesn’t affect billionares, hmmmm!!!!????

manaboutown 04-08-2025 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2422288)
Actually China is a copier but they do some innovation and that is growing. Do not think they will catch up with us but they are very good at stealing our technology.

Historically the Chinese have ignored and even stolen our intellectual property with impunity. I remember when back in the mid 1960s I started a job as a Patent Examiner at the USPTO the staff used the term "Chinese Copy" when a patent application essentially disclosed and claimed what was shown in a reference. lol.

Stu from NYC 04-08-2025 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbartle1 (Post 2422344)
Funny how the correction and sacrifice doesn’t affect billionares, hmmmm!!!!????

You think the value of their portfolios does not go down when the market goes down?

Topspinmo 04-08-2025 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbartle1 (Post 2422344)
Funny how the correction and sacrifice doesn’t affect billionares, hmmmm!!!!????

IMO They create the sell off selling millions of stock at high price, that drops market value then the wait like thief in night buy back at way lower value rate which causes market to go up. Then cycle starts all over again.

MorTech 04-09-2025 12:05 AM

Call the tariff a 10% sales tax...Minimum.
China understands...They are dumping treasuries to keep the 10 year yield high.
The tariffs will benefit Mexico. Still.

USD being the global currency means our economy gets offshored/depressed over time. They will probably create a USA only dollar and an outside USA dollar that will be priced differently. The "Eurodollar" needs to be drained to take back control of monetary policy and SOFR replacing LIBOR is a good first step...The tariffs will help even more.

MeThinks the tariffs will bankrupt the European Union and UK...I think that's the plan. The City of London (the autonomous city within London) is a plain 300 year evil. Time to dust off the Monroe Doctrine and take Canada and Greenland away from our European colonizers :) Trump/Powell/Dimon/Nutlick knows who are real enemies are and it ain't Russia or China.

MorTech 04-09-2025 12:09 AM

There are 300M people in China with an IQ north of 140. They will be just fine after their debt depression and they are the world innovators and producers now.

Arctic Fox 04-09-2025 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MorTech (Post 2422401)
There are 300M people in China with an IQ north of 140. They will be just fine after their debt depression and they are the world innovators and producers now.

An IQ above 140 is in the 99.6th percentile - one in 250 people. With 1.4 billion people, China will have around 6 million above 140. Still plenty to innovate, though.

MorTech 04-09-2025 02:18 AM

300M people with an IQ north of 140 combined with a Confucius/Tso mindset...The human values produced there will be mind blowing.

RoadToad 04-09-2025 04:27 AM

Exactly
 
Money in the coffers is the REAL motivation.
Only then can it be pilfered for tax breaks for the (needy??)
0% Tariffs (trade free) only helps the majority of us; and fails to achieve objective.



Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422260)
And that is why there is such a push at this moment to eliminate almost all import, VAT and tariffs from the trade system.

Money in the government coffers? Now there is an interesting premise.


RoadToad 04-09-2025 04:32 AM

Bless You.
 
Good on you!
Edifying the masses is however an uphill battle.
Stay strong...

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422093)
Lets get this straight:

The grand plan trying to reverse 40 years of product trade optimization is very, very risky, and most likely not going to happen. First reason is that the cost is very high and the time frame is very long. To effectively move $3 per hour (est foreign labor rate) human labor to a $15 per hour (living wage cost of living domestic labor rate) requires either the US domestic economy to be put into a depression, or the US consumer will need huge wages increases to buy the domestic products without huge government UBI.

Examples, Tariffing a country like Vietnam, whose labor rate is $3 per hour and whose US tariff rate is 2%, with a 30% tariff, and then have them remove their tariff, reduces their product sales to the US, and still doesn't allow Vietnam the increased cost of living to afford US exports, as no one is increasing their labor rates. If the US tariff is removed, that still doesn't change the current status enough to increase the Vietnam std of living enough to afford US products.

The US's current wealth lost by labor manufacturing, has been replaced by high tech creation, innovation and products, primarily software. The real problem with software is that it can replace human labor, and that problem has a different solution than mfg relocation.

A bakery and a flour-sugar distributor will always run a trade imbalance. The distributor will never buy an equal amount of bakery goods. Same concept applies to Vietnam. . . or any other low wage mfg trading partner.

Second: US mfg is now 10-15% of the US labor. . . to build new capacity will take several years, and Nutlick believes that AI/robots can perform the labor in these new factories. So if this happens, the US consumer wins, but there are no jobs being brought back to the domestic shores. Therefore, where are the labor gains? And if this path is chosen, and the president isn't reelected, or doesn't corrupt the Congress and Judiciary branch to give him unlimited time in office, all this investment can be for not with a new president

Therefore, corporations will just sit and wait it out, and will start cutting labor to survive. It didn't work in the 1930s, and it still won't work in the 2020's.

good luck


Dahabs 04-09-2025 04:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422093)
Lets get this straight:

The grand plan trying to reverse 40 years of product trade optimization is very, very risky, and most likely not going to happen. First reason is that the cost is very high and the time frame is very long. To effectively move $3 per hour (est foreign labor rate) human labor to a $15 per hour (living wage cost of living domestic labor rate) requires either the US domestic economy to be put into a depression, or the US consumer will need huge wages increases to buy the domestic products without huge government UBI.

Examples, Tariffing a country like Vietnam, whose labor rate is $3 per hour and whose US tariff rate is 2%, with a 30% tariff, and then have them remove their tariff, reduces their product sales to the US, and still doesn't allow Vietnam the increased cost of living to afford US exports, as no one is increasing their labor rates. If the US tariff is removed, that still doesn't change the current status enough to increase the Vietnam std of living enough to afford US products.

The US's current wealth lost by labor manufacturing, has been replaced by high tech creation, innovation and products, primarily software. The real problem with software is that it can replace human labor, and that problem has a different solution than mfg relocation.

A bakery and a flour-sugar distributor will always run a trade imbalance. The distributor will never buy an equal amount of bakery goods. Same concept applies to Vietnam. . . or any other low wage mfg trading partner.

Second: US mfg is now 10-15% of the US labor. . . to build new capacity will take several years, and Nutlick believes that AI/robots can perform the labor in these new factories. So if this happens, the US consumer wins, but there are no jobs being brought back to the domestic shores. Therefore, where are the labor gains? And if this path is chosen, and the president isn't reelected, or doesn't corrupt the Congress and Judiciary branch to give him unlimited time in office, all this investment can be for not with a new president

Therefore, corporations will just sit and wait it out, and will start cutting labor to survive. It didn't work in the 1930s, and it still won't work in the 2020's.

good luck

Very well said!


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