How much do houses increase in value?
 

It seems that a lot of pre-owned houses are for sale - and the asking prices are significantly higher than the purchase price even for houses built in the last five years.

Assume a home with a view (golf course, water, preserve) and a home without a view (wall or kissing lanai) and that there have been modest improvements in all homes (no pools) but some upgrades and landscaping totaling no more than $25,000.

Ballpark, how much should a new home (veranda, designer and courtyard villa) increase in value after 1,2,3,4, and 5 years?

Has there been a significant change now as compared to houses built in 2015?

My house was built in 2015, and it has increased in value by an average of 6 percent per year. I have done almost no upgrades. Most people would ask more than it is worth, primarily because people tend to overvalue the upgrades they have paid for. You should only expect to get about 50 to 60 percent of what you paid for upgrades, and definitely not 100 percent like some people think. And, you should get nothing for the real estate commission, which is totally the seller's expense.

I live in a courtyard villa from 2021 near sawgrass. The entire neighborhood are courtyard villas with siding. I had one neighbor who paid 325K for her pond view, built a pool and sold it for 600k. 2 others with no view and a house directly behind the fence, originally sold for 245K both sold for 400k last year. They basically price their homes according to how many rooftops you can see from your back yard. So i was told…..

Almost impossible to estimate, since "past performance is no guarantee of future returns". But a designer on golf course built 2014 may be up about 150% based on sales in nearby neighborhoods.

My 11 year old designer on a retention pond has doubled.

According to Redfin, the median sales price in the Villages in May 2020 was $274K and the median sales price in May 2025 was $354K. So that is a 29% increase in five years.

There must be a lot of Patio Villas in that data given the low prices, but that is what the data say when I googled it.

Our first house in 4 years was 45% increase (zero upgrades) 2014
Second 9years 76% increase (zero upgrade) 2020
Third house 9 years 59% increase at the cusp of too many houses for sale (zero upgrade) 2022
There is a definite difference in thinking was your % will be if you sell compared to actually selling and knowing the %

We are here 5 years in designer homes.

First 3-4 years price went up about 50%. In past year down abut 10%.

Excuse me while I warm up my crystal ball to decide on future.

As most have said you will never recover from any upgrades. If you want to get the most from your investiment get the basic house, live in it and do no upgrades. Always put in the cheapest washer/dryer, fridge, dishwasher, etc.. and you will always get a better return on investment.

Also unlikely to to recover a bond payoff.

I don’t think those who are multi buy/sell ever would pay off bond. We didn’t on any of our houses, just passed it to the next owner. Those preowned we looked at with paid bond usually had a increase in $$$ sale price trying to recoup paid bond.

Don’t mean you’re going to get that?

Housing market overall down and IMO going go down more based on flooded market everywhere.

The house next door sold 2 years ago for more than 2x the original price (after 9 years). A house down the street is listed for more than 2x its original price 11 years ago. I probably would get 2x but I am not looking to sell it.

You need to keep in mind the value of the bond being paid off or partially paid off on a pre-owned home.

Some people claim that whether the bond had been paid or not been does not impact the sales price.

That doesn’t make any sense to me. I would think people would look at the total price of the house - sales price, bond, and taxes.

For example, a $500,000 house with no bond and $5,000 in taxes should sell faster than a $475,000 house next door with a $50,000 bond and $5,000 taxes. The first one appears to cost $25,000 more but is actually $25,000 cheaper.

Or do people look just at the sales price?

One need to look closely on the pay down for bonds. Especially %rate. Our 5 houses the last house the lowest bond % for us. Selling a 5-7 yo house bond amount doesn’t change that much.

My guess is many people just look at the sale price and don't figure out the whole package. It's not much different from those that pick the cheapest airfare and ignore the total cost----like $35-80 extra for a seat, $45 for each bag, $50 for a pilot, $70 for engines, etc.

Lots on the golf courses, preserves, and lake/ponds increase in value much more than interior lots. Something to keep in mind.

That's like saying the price of automobiles, goes up more than the price of bread.

GOOD LUCK ... Your Taxes, Insurance & Bond should considered in the purchase of any house in the United States... Read your Insurance policy, Hurricane deductibles are percentages of Home Value.. Due diligence should include Turnpike noise, along with marsh odors.. Affordability on a Fixed Income is not easy to find.

We don’t see any rooftops from ours. Thanks for the simple comparison. Cheers

There can be a big difference between the asking price you see on real estate ads and what houses actually sell for, and from that sales amount remove 6% for the agent, and taxes, and house insurance, and title insurance, and repairs the buyer may require. My next door neighbors’ house is now “Sale Pending” after six months. They started off asking $465,000 which I thought was way too much for a 1600 sq ft courtyard villa, given that my 1200 sq ft courtyard villa has an estimated price of $313,000. (I bought it two years ago for $310,000.) The last asking price for their home was $375,000, and they may be selling it for less. After all their costs, they may get about $340,000. If they had a mortgage and bought a new house with a mortgage or bridge loan, figure in six months of making dual home payments, taxes, insurance, amenities fees, etc. Ouch!

Four or five years ago, used home prices were going up an amazing amount. But that’s because people could get mortgages at 3.5% interest, so they could afford bigger mortgages, so more homes were selling fast, so sellers raised their prices in a sellers market. However, now interest rates are much higher, and the estimate for this area is a 1% price increase in sales price in the past year. Yes. One percent.

There are many upgrades to your house that you will get back over 100% of what you paid for them. Finishing off your lanai like the house that is heated and cooled, raised floor, double pane windows, insulation that increases your sq footage, pool, extra patio birdcage, and more.
As for buying crap appliances to make a buck when if ever selling: why? You have to live with them, you can take them with you. I upgrade all my appliances paying a few thousand for each of them. I will take the stove, refrigerator, washer and dryer with us and I’ll go down to Lowe’s and get cheap replacements or if I bought a new house and moved in before selling (which I would do) I would remove the cheap stuff in the new house and put them in my existing house before selling

Retiredguy123 “My house was built in 2015, and it has increased in value by an average of 6 percent per year. I have done almost no upgrades. Most people would ask more than it is worth, primarily because people tend to overvalue the upgrades they have paid for. You should only expect to get about 50 to 60 percent of what you paid for upgrades, and definitely not 100 percent like some people think. And, you should get nothing for the real estate commission, which is totally the seller's expense.”

If where you live is a house or an investment, it would make sense (I guess) not to make any improvements. But if you live in a home, I think you should make whatever improvements work for you. And I certainly would get what ever appliances make life easier and convenient for you. Personally, I’ve always lived in a home.

Last time I looked the average increase was around 8% per year.

I have a house on the water that I’m trying to sell cheaper than I bought it for

That good you’re not looking to sell cause market flooded right now and will be for while? Prices will have to come down IMO.

There are alot of variables in play to answer that question precisely.

Keep in mind the following direct and indirect effects:
1) being retirement location, a small but stable percentage of all homes preowned will be up for sale during to the passing of the last living owner. The percentage may be stable, but as the villages grows, the absolute number increases.

2) preowned in a fully developed (older) neighborhood which a buyer can see, and can evaluate current amenities as permanent for the rest of the owner's life has more buyers than newer areas with up and coming amenities and houses. Here the future is more uncertain than the certainty of the older neighborhoods. Therefore the higher premium for older areas, some with extras which are very expensive today, (pools) but estates just want to get rid of the house

3) The size of the under development of the villages acreage ready for unbuilt houses. A new house which may be cheaper is competition. . . and pushed by the villages sales team can influence house prices.

4) external to The Villages, the demand to move in is influenced by the ability to sell and the sale price of the family home being sold in order to move into the villages. . as well as the time of year, which makes a big influence on the number of houses for sale throughout the year.

The point is, there are alot of influences for demand, as well as supply, which can change the rate of increase annually as each year is different. . . .home prices generally increase 4-6 % a year, very close to a multiple of GDP growth. . .

The whims of the buyers also change year to year, based upon the weather, the economy and life situations of buyers and sellers. . . so not sure of the genesis of the question, but don't over analyze the market, make your list of must haves, and nice to haves, and your price point, and just scour the market for your opportunity. You just won't know when it's available until it happens. .

kind of like it won't work, until it does type of event.

and once you buy and move in, the price fluctuations or trends are of no more significance to your lifestyle, the money has been sunk and if you buy well, you won't care about other houses. .

Apparently Villagers just don't understand the real estate market and insist the Villages is different than everyplace else in the USA ... it is not.

Residential property appreciates between 4%-6% per year (as you point out) and that has been consistent for a 100 years. Obviously, there are fluctuations, hills & valleys ... but that's the number.

Trying to guess the peaks & valleys to make a big score, is no different than day trading. Some folks do really well at it ... the majority lose their lunch money.

Op, have you been told if you buy a new home it will greatly increase in value in just one year? And, you can easily sell the house then buy a bigger one with your profit? Just wondering because we were told this when we were looking for a new home. For some, this may have worked out. Others were not so lucky. IMO, the best purchase is the home that will make you happy for many years. Buying with investment in mind can be tricky. Especially, now! Home prices are falling and many (both new construction and preowned) are sitting on the market for months.

I am still pretty sure I could sell it for 2x what I paid for it. It would work out to a bit more than 6% appreciation per year.

Now is the time to buy, because the prices in the Villages are dropping significantly. Actually, prices are dropping all over Florida and some are saying that they will never rebound to the high prices they were a year ago. There is a large inventory of homes for sale in the Villages, right now and one of their agents told me that they have not seen anything like this in over 30 years of being here.

I agree. It's a buyers market for sure.
Values aren't increasing now. Those days are over. But for those who bought pre covid, they're mostly in good shape as far as equity goes, many in real good shape.

For us, we bought a 2/2 ranch in Amelia in 2022 when the market was pretty hot. So we paid top dollar. A year and half later we bought a bigger ranch on a corner lot in Amelia. When we sold the 2/2 we made a little money, but not much.

I would say if we were to sell this one right now, which we have no plans to do, we would be fortunate to break even.
That's just the market right now. Where it goes from here, who knows?

As a new buyer, who almost built last, I can confirm this is true for pre-owned homes. Our offer was based on recent sold prices and what an insurance company would insure the house for. Given that most homes are cash transactions, they don’t go through the normal appraisal process required by mortgage lenders.

Could be a combination of inflated prices, market uncertainty, 2 Hurricanes last year casting shade on Florida and people don’t feel the urge to flee blue state politics with a Republican administration in power.

If you are a seller, hold. Real estate always rebounds.

MLS has recently changed the rules. Now the buyer pays for their realtor fees. However, there is often an agreement that the buyer is compensated by the saler for the buyer's realtor fees, Your case may be different and it depends a lot on the market. Often the buyer will not be shown the home unless there is this agreement. You can google and/or talk to a good realtor about this.

The buyer can refuse to pay any real estate fees. That is clearly an option in the MLS documents. As a buyer, I would never agree to pay any money to a real estate company.

typed like a true real estate sales person. I've seen people take this advice, and continue to lose money. . a friend bought a Myrtle beach condo at $180K after sales rep said same, after drop started. Sold out at 90K when the rentals didn't materialize in the golf course program. . (over saturated) and prices continued to drop.

one buys when the market stops dropping and actually starts to rise, if doing so for an investment, or for buying as cheaply as possible., ,.

If one buys to live, price is important, but timing the market is irrelevant. . . house prices go up and house prices go down, irrelevant unless you are buying or selling. If living in a house, you want zero appreciation to keep insurance and taxes from rising faster than inflation.

Also remember, eventhough it's a buyers market here in the Villages, if you have a home thats different meaning, having a View lot, more than 3 bedrooms or extra bathrooms, larger garage, etc, since there are not a lot of homes with 3+ bedrooms and or bathrooms or 3+ car garage, a View lot, your home will always be worth a lot more and will sell faster. This is fact. There are so many homes with pools and bird cages and closed-in lanai that these upgrade are worth less these days. But the "bones", bedrooms, bathrooms, garages, view lots, much less to choose from so if someone really wants your home, there aren't 10 other homes like yours to choose from so they will pay the price.

We got our home because the view is FANTASTIC. Our garage is wider then a typical 2 car garage and would have liked an additional golf cart gradge for additional storage but we have already spent over a year looking.

PS
We made an offer on a different house but didn't get it and we are happy we got this one. We were interested in a different home but it was overpriced so didn't make an offer. They took it off the market until the next year & sold it for a lot less.