Up to the min polls
 

I think the first debate on Friday will set the bar for polling, etc for the balance of the campaign. Someone will "win" on Friday (probably more decided by perception rather than content)and become the frontrunner for the balance !

To me, polls are worthless. The raw polling data is subjected to all sorts of manipulation by the polling agency, and these manipulation ("weighting") can throw numbers in all sorts of directions. Even the raw data, depending on the collection technique, is subject to gamesmanship.

A great article from the University of Pennsylvania's Center for Organizational Dynamics describes a study the center did on the 2004 election. Titled, The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy, it gets into how polling does and does not work. http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/Documents/ExitPoll.pdf

In short, when it comes to elections, the old cliche "figures lie, and liars figure" pretty much summarizes this marketing technique.

SteveZ, you continue to impress me! The inaccuracy of polls is almost amusing. :agree:

Just heard a description of "weighting" a few days ago...the process by witch they try and add other ingrediants (or take away) to the polling data and it gave me a headache.

I agree with Steve......but they sure can make for debate :)

Agree, but if these pollsters were really that good with their "analyses" based on raw data, weighting, positioning, etc., they'd all be down the race track making real money....