Is now REALLY the time to buy
 

Wife and I were in FL on business, and took a day-trip to The Villages.
A Salesman showed us homes, and we decided that a Courtyard Villa, 3 BR, frame&vinyl (BONITA) is ideal for us.
The salesman says that NOW is the time to buy, prices may not get lower, and will surely be much higher in 4 years (buildout).
He also suggested we buy now and go with their rental plan until we are both retired. No high pressure sales tactics were involved, just a relaxed conversation with (of course) an invitation to take advantage of the life style preview. Maybe next spring.
I would appreciate any input from this valuable forum.:bowdown:

Hi Kayaker,

Well, you asked for opinions so that's all this is, of course. But keep in mind, that the other "opinion" -- from a TV sales rep -- is also just that.

Or is it?

What else is a sales rep going to say?

And while that might have looked like a fairly substantiated opinion to have a few years back, I think that for the immediate future, all bets are off. I am afraid that this economic fiasco has just started to bare its fangs. And, like all of us, I sure hope its run is at least a short one. But I also do not believe that anybody really knows.

A TV sales rep's motivation is from a completely different angle than yours. I know you know that and you are factoring it in for what it's worth in the equation as you do your own math.

When I make a financial decision, I base it upon what I call "the cost of sleep."

I am a "take my time and gather information" type, too. I can make decisions, but not without my ducks all lined up in a row.

When you really crunch your own numbers to find your own personal cost of sleep, you will have your answer.

You will know how long you would be able to get some sleep while owning two homes and all the associated expenses of doing so. You will know if you want to be a landlord for awhile. And you will know how much you want to do all this right now or if you want to give it some more time and maybe rent for a month or so, here and there, along the way.

So my advice (since you asked) is to just take your time and think about the cost of sleep. That's how it works for me anyway. But I also recognize that individual sleep costs will vary.

Boomer

Every week I see at least one new home and one used home that would fit my lifestyle and the price is the same or lower than the previous 'fit' homes. This gives me reason to believe that the end is not over in terms of price and availability.

Would I buy today? YES if I was moving down today. Although I might still rent for a year in the hopes that I find something better for the same price.

Am I concerned that if i can't get there for 3 years that I'll be able to find something that I like and can afford? NO

But what the heck to I know? I've lost over 100K in my 401(k) in the past 4 months! So I'm no financial genius.

If the name of the game is to get the LOWEST price possible, nobody has access to that crystal ball.

If what you want and can afford is a place which gives you a retreat whenever you want AND will be your retirement home, then that's another story.

My spouse and I bought last year (July) and have been 'commuting' between DC and TV since, with the end of the commute to occur April 2009. The carrying costs haven't been that bad, and the mental freedom is priceless.

So, it all depends on personal choice of how you spend discretionary income, where you would like to be when not fulfilling responsibilities, and if having a retreat from the rat race has value....

It sounds like you met with a sales agent regarding NEW construction, whose prices have indeed dropped because of much diminished sales. We heard recently that TV laid off a huge number of planning and design personnel because of this. But with new construction you have to factor in the bond on new construction, which is commensurately higher than on existing homes, and the fact that you're starting with a basic slate, so to speak, meaning you pay for whatever you want to add to the house.

We bought a resale a year ago; prices on resales, as you can imagine, can be MUCH MORE FLEXIBLE than on new construction. We have followed home prices and have yet to find a price--new or resale--that matches what we bought a year ago (bond already paid and various options, some costly, already installed). Sometimes sellers are under no pressure, while at other times, for different reasons, they are highly motivated (as was our case). I agree about Boomer's 'sleep' factors, but it would seem to me that if you found a resale of the Bonita you're interested in that is an extraordinarily good buy AND your finances allow you to buy it, it's something you might want to consider. But only you can determine that....

Yes, the Bonita was a new home, on Juneberry Ave in (I think) Poinciana Village. The price at under $170K seemed good, and the cheapest used Bonita was $187.5K (not furnished, bond not paid), located in Liberty Park.
It may be that owners are not willing to sell their pre-owned homes for a loss, assuming that new home prices have dropped. But that is only my humble opinion.
I agree with Boomer's sleep factor, it something is going to disrupt my sleep, it is probably not worth doing.
The salesman also noted that renting a home would bring in something between $7K to $10K in net yearly income.
Lots to think about.

A big measuring stick is the time you've spent in TV. If it's only that day trip, I'll bet my socks that within a week of buying that beautiful Bonita you'll find a better home or deal right in your own neighborhood. The advice to "take your time" is huge. Things are not going to change that dramatically in the short term. TV is such a beautiful, exciting place that your vision doesn't really clear until you've spent weeks here.

It's not that you're going to be unhappy with the Bonita, or that you might have saved a little money by catching just the right place at the right moment. There are thousands here who bought after a very short visit and are happy as clams. But by asking if this is the Right Time, you seem like the more deliberate type who needs to look at all sides of the decision very carefully.

So come on back, immerse yourself and talk to lots of folks about where they live and why they like it. I live in a courtyard villa on Nancy Lopez that is miles from where you are looking. It is the most fabulous mid-priced home in all of TV! It's my paradise on earth.

Timing the real estate market is similar to timing the stock market. Hard to catch it at the bottom.

Village agents have been saying for years that "prices for new homes may not get lower". Obviously it is beyond their control and they're giving you the party line.

We bought 1 1/2 years ago and like Sidney Lanier, managed to find a real bargain with the bond paid.

In spite of the fact that prices have been decreasing, it is the best decision we've ever made. How can you put a price on a year in Paradise? None of us are getting any younger.

Amen!

Really? I find that very hard to believe. I'd sure double check those numbers if I were you. You could probably bring in $7-10K gross, but not net.

Have you checked the county appraisers web site? Many people bought at the top of the market, so are trying to sell for more than those that bought prior to the top.

To KayakerNC
I will be closing on a Bonita next week on Hortensia Pl which runs into Juneberry Ave. in the Village of ST Charles. I will be be a full time resident. Thats different than your situation. As far as pricing goes. If the market is down in The Villages and you buy at good price you will more than likly get less money on your current home. If the market goes up it's up in both places. So it's all relative. Good luck what ever you decide
Hey maybe we'll neighbors

We picked out a lot in July and had a house built for us. The combination of picking out the exact lot (golf course front with minimal threat of broken windows plus proximity to rec centers and shopping) plus a house that met our specifications almost to a T plus an unbelievable price convinces us that we did the right thing.

Yes, there were a few sleepless nights driven by the fact that our house was not yet even on the market and months away from even being ready to put on the market. However, in looking at houses like ours that are on the TV web site for a lot more money than we paid back in July that don't meet all of the location issues that ours does, we still look at each other and say, absolutely we made the right decision. Had we waited 20 minutes, the lot would have been sold to someone else. Would there have been another situation where the stars were so perfectly alligned? Possibly, but I'm glad we did not count on it.

Of course this is easier to say as we await an offer on our house after the third visit by our prospective buyers.

Kayacker/NC,
I'm pretty conservative, so I'd discount the rental income and then say.. can I afford this and sleep at night.

We bought this year, I think the timing is right price wise even though we're part timers for a couple/few years. Stretched the finances a bit, but we'll be alright.

So as mentioned above, there are many other factors, such as how much/often will you be able to use it. I would not, personally, buy based on renting it.
Good luck, come join us when you can...

We have had a very simple and workable plan. We want to trade houses. When we started visiting TV in Aug we could sell our house and with the proceeds, pay off the mortgage, buy our new Designer home, furnish it and pay for the move. A home for a home. As long as TV property prices are reduced by the same amount that our house has dropped we will be there soon. If not, I guess we will need a plan "B"