Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion
 

Below is the summary of the latest Dorian Forecast Discussion from The National Hurricane Center (11PM Tuesday). Item #4 is particularly noteworthy as the forecasted tracks are usually better than the forecasted intensity. Tropical storm/hurricane tracks typically respond to the larger scale forcing and errors in the numerical models at 5 days can be substantial. The latest official forecast has landfall along the Florida coast as a Cat 1 hurricane on Sunday evening but the "cone" of possibilities extends from Miami to Savannah, GA. The last 3 cycles of the NWS Global Model have been taking Dorian further and further to the north with the latest cycle (00Z Wed initial time) having landfall in North Carolina. The latest cycle of the ECMWF Global Model (12Z Tues initial time) takes Dorian through central Florida and into the Gulf. Still early to have a handle on things.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due a large spread in model guidance.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Here's a good link.

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I couldn't agree more.

The latest (12Z Wed) cycle of the NWS Global Model has a more southerly track than the previous cycles and has Dorian making landfall on the central/northcentral Florida coast on Sunday evening before moving northward into Georgia. It is still early and there is considerable spread on the numerical guidance. I am curious to see the 12Z runs of the NWS hurricane codes (in a little while).

The latest discussion and official forecast track(essentially an integration of model results) from the National Hurricane Center can be found at:

National Hurricane Center

Thanks for doing this.

Already got water and some canned goods in case we lose power for any extent of time.

And of course The Weather Channel has all the latest storm info 24/7.

Look The Weather Channel has all the Blah Blah Blah and is pretty accurate...then the local TV Channels so if you want they have the Hype and Drama, the local certainly have that ..as in WOW!

So the choice is The Weather Channel ( No Drama ) or The Local TV Station who actually get all the information from the ...wait for it...

The Weather Channel...

Drama vs No Drama

Me? I watch out of curiosity how they The Channels ( Meteorologist Portray ) themselves. Especially Channel 2's Aimee Sweezy Adore Me

Tucillo, your vast information and training in meteorology is a comfort to us again. You were such a help to us during Irma. It is good to have someone who lives here with your knowledge.