Early Indirect evidence preventative measures are working?
 

"Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest
A database of daily fever readings shows that the numbers declined as people disappeared indoors."

Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest - The New York Times


"Social distancing is slowing the spread of feverish illnesses across the country. See the data here. Note: This does not mean that COVID-19 cases are declining. In fact, we expect to see reported cases continue to surge in the near term."

I'm sure these measures are working but it will take a long while plus fully controlling the hot spots of activity from spreading.

It's a shame that so many are not practicing these measures.

And the outside denominator. The travelers that starts the process all over.

Another indirect metric, CDC Flu data is also dropping with the following note:

"Note: The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting healthcare seeking behavior. The number of persons and their reasons for seeking care in the outpatient and ED settings is changing. These changes impact data from ILINet in ways that are difficult to differentiate from changes in illness levels, therefore ILINet data should be interpreted with caution."

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC

Agree, probably not safe to ease up until death rates approach normal again.

COVID19 cases will soar, until the end of April and really slow by mid-May, until September, when they will soar again, until it starts slowing again in December and by February 2021, like magic, it will disappear. Trump was just a little early with his prediction ;-)

This is fact or your prediction?

That a single person, whether clinically ill or asymptomatic but contagious, will potentially be able to reignite an outbreak in the next several months is a real concern. As has been shown it only takes one to unleash Covid. I have no suggestion on how to navigate this difficult fact once we are over the worst of the cases.

I do hope that the decision makers bring a wide number of people from multiple areas of expertise to share their thoughts and come to some consensus. We will only know if they loosen the restrictions too soon as we will see new outbreaks. We will not know if they got it right or waited longer than needed.

We are still taking off our shoes because of one person in 2001who failed in his attempt to blow up a jet with a shoe bomb. If that one incident has altered our life for almost 20 years with no repeated attempt, it is possible that in 2040 we still will be subjected to some virus screen to travel.

You should be on television.

We can all hypothesize or we can refer to the model that the federal government is actually using to predict numbers of deaths in each state and across the country over the next few months. They are predicting that the daily deaths from this will peak on April 15th.

COVID-19