Tracking the surge April 23, 2020
 

Several people have referenced an article in the WSJ regarding the coming surge of Covid-19 cases in the villages, so I decided to post a daily update on the surge. Since there is no separate reporting for the Villages specifically, I decided to combine the numbers from the 3 counties that include portions of the villages, as reported by the Daily Sun. It's not perfect, but its a pretty good representation of the overall trends in our part of central Florida.

As of today, we have 507 reported cases in Lake, Marion and Sumter county. Dividing by total deaths of 21 gives us a case fatality rate of 4.1%. That is higher that the state average of 3%, I assume in part due to the fact that Sumter county has the highest average age of any county in Florida, so a higher percentage of the population is at risk. On the other hand, it appears that the case fatality rate of new infections is much lower, possibly due to more widespread testing and better treatment.

Update 4/24/20

Tri county area:

New cases: 1 an increase of 0.19%
New fatalities: 0
Total cases: 507

Sumter county:

New cases: 1, an increase of 0.6% of total cases, and a decrease of 90% in the growth rate, although the numbers were likely skewed (see below)
New fatalities: 0
Total cases: 164

Someone mentioned on the last thread that most of the new cases likely came from the correctional facility in Bushnell, and looking into the numbers that seems to be true.

A good source for current numbers by state and country, as well as a series of charts showing projected numbers can be found on the IHME website:

COVID-19

It shows the total projected deaths in the United States from C-19 during this pandemic to be 67,641. As a point of reference, the CDC estimates that the US had 61,000 fatalities during the seasonal flu season of 2018.

Stay safe and be reasonable

Glad to hear about the data. That new death data may change with the opening of the counties. It would be interesting to know the cumulative deaths by age. I notice that data is usually grouped in decades 70-79, 80 plus. Yet the rate is very different for a 72 year old vs a 78 year old vs an 82 year old and also hospitalization and death rate by zip code. This type of information would be more helpful than a guess at how many might have Covid with the small percentage of people actually tested. I also think we need to test for antibodies randomly like California, to get any accuracy for how many people had it.

I appreciate the data you provide. The first post seemed to minimize the impact of this virus and the what I’m trying to say that a 10 year old faces a very small probability as compared to a 70 year old so just throwing the data together is actually meaningless.

The data is what it is. How you choose to interpret it or what weight to put on it is your call.

Same for me, and I appreciate a voice of reason that gives us the big picture.

Data is what they choose to publish. However, each of us has only one life.