Tracking the surge April 28, 2020
 

Several people have referenced an article in the WSJ regarding the coming surge of Covid-19 cases in the villages, so I decided to post a daily update on the surge. Since there is no separate reporting for the Villages specifically, I decided to combine the numbers from the 3 counties that include portions of the villages, as reported by the Daily Sun. It's not perfect, but it’s a pretty good representation of the overall trends in our part of central Florida.

Update for April 28, 2020

Tri-county area:

Total cases: 547
New cases: 3 - up 0.55%
% of population diagnosed with C-19: 0.063%

Fatalities: 26
New: 0 (this is the 4th day in a row with no new fatalities - good news indeed)
Total fatalities as a % of total population: 0.003%


Sumter county:

Total cases: 173
New cases: 2 - up 1.16%
% of population diagnosed with C-19: 0.13%

Total fatalities: 12
New fatalities: 0
Total fatalities as a % of the population: 0.01%

Someone yesterday pointed out that a relatively large number of cases in the Sumter county numbers were from prisons (Coleman and Sumter County Correctional or SCC). Thanks for pointing that out, and in fact the Sun reported today that 47 of the cases in Sumter county were from SCC (44) and Coleman(3). IF we adjusted the Sumter county numbers for the prisons, the total infections as a % of the total population would look a lot more like the Tri-county area.

Stay safe and be reasonable

16 people a day die in the 3 counties under normal circumstances.
8.2 of those are from traffic accidents
We haven't taken people's cars away yet, but we continue the lockdown of the general population.
The peak for Florida was April 17 - April 23.
As Moses said: "Let My People Go"

Good point
 

Interesting concept. About 38,000 Americans die every year from traffic accidents. If we lower the speed limit to 5 mph, that number would be 0, so why don't we do that as well?

Where do you get your facts from????

Fortunately 8.2 people DO NOT die in traffic accidents in the tri-county area each day.

Here are the official vehicle fatalities for 2016 - 2018 (2019 is not available)

'18 '17 '16

Lake 63 48 55
Marion 84 90 70
Sumter 25 23 17

Total 192 161 142

Per Day 0.53 0.44 0.39

Source: https://www.flhsmv.gov/pdf/crashrepo...facts_2018.pdf