Did we blow it with the lockdown?
 

Meet Professor Lockdown. Professor Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London. I'll get to the pretty lady in a sec.

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Professor Ferguson's computer models projected 500k deaths in UK, 2.2 million in USA if strict lockdowns and social distancing were not put in place immediately. UK and USA governments listened. He later lowered his estimates drastically, but damage was done.

He just resigned after being caught having the pretty lady, who is married, over to his house a couple times. This was direct violation of UK rules forbidding intermingling of households. According to the Telegraph, “She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one" LOL Anyway, the Professor apparently believes you should do as I say, not what I do.

So I am watching reports about Sweden, the only country I know that has not enacted a lockdown to see how they are doing. Their death rate per million (282) is higher than their Baltic neighbors, but much lower than UK, Spain, France, Italy. Our death rate per million in USA is 214. So many think this shows their herd immunity approach is not working.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

However, you need to look at the big picture. This is by no means over yet. We were sold the lockdown because it flattens the curve and the main reason to do this is so our hospitals do not get overrun. There are no reports of Sweden's hospitals getting overrun. Their economy has not taken the huge hit that ours has.

The lockdown does not stop the virus from killing people, it just slows it down. Epidemiologists and Dr Fauci predict that we will have successive waves of this virus for 1.5 to 2 years. We may have to lockdown again if it gets really bad.

So let's say Sweden achieves herd immunity in a few months, their death toll will stop growing. Countries who have taken the lockdown approach will continue to have deaths and their numbers will grow, passing Sweden.

The only thing that will change this is if an effective vaccine is produced. That could be in 6 months, two years, or never. At this point, I think if a vaccine is produced in 6 months or less, the lockdown approach is probably better. If not, we may find out Sweden's strategy is the better one.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Good question but hopefully one of the vaccines being tested now will be available by end of the year and stop the virus in its tracks

Just a thought, as the virus mutates, and it is thought that it is already a different strain in Europe and US than it was in Asia, and immunity for one strain does not give immunity for the next strain. So Sweden may well have paid all those deaths in vain.

The problem with herd mentality is it allows others to infect you and kill you, even if you take precautions. The question then becomes a moral one. Is assisted suicide not the same thing? Is abortion not the same thing? All three allow someone else to take your life. At least with assisted suicide, you have given permission to be killed. Just a query.

They are not having corona parties in Sweden so everyone gets infected, they have told seniors and at risk people to stay home. Those that go out are told to practice social distancing. You are not required to go out and mingle, just like here as we relax the rules. Nobody is going to kill you if you stay home and take precautions.

Herd immunity does not require 100% get infected, just enough so that the virus dies out from lack of hosts.

Good thought. At this point we don't know how long immunity lasts or if it works against all strains. I'm sure it will be studied.

There are not widespread reports of large numbers of people getting infected twice, most of those reports are of individuals who have relapsed or possible faulty testing.

The jury is still out on whether the Swedes got it right...but time will certainly tell

I do wonder though if the approach that Sweden took would have actually worked in the States...the two cultures are very different

this takes the post a little off course, but it is about the Swedes, so I'll share:

Back in the 1900's a manufacturing company in central Massachusetts, where I was raised, sent recruiters to Sweden and brought hundreds of Swedes over to America to work in their factory. Their research had indicated that Swedes were much more inclined to adapt and follow direction and far less likely to organize into a union than other nationalities or the local US workers at that time were. This one company wanted to avoid having to deal with a union. That company ended up with a predominant Swedish workforce and to this day never did unionize. All of the other large manufacturing firms in that same city did unionize.

Very true

Swedes are Osjälviska (selfless)

Lots of smart people working on it!

When the vaccine is released and available to the public let us hope the general public is more responsive to it than they have been with flu shots.

In my opinion those who have decided for what ever reason to not get a flu shot will also not get the Covid-19 vaccine.

I don't hate the Swedish approach. They have the advantage of 50% of their population being in single-person households vs. 30% in the U.S. so it makes more sense for them. The question is whether they will get to herd immunity before a vaccine or treatment is developed. If they do, they made the right call. If they don't, well, I won't criticize them because they made a reasonable gamble. At least they have a plan, we're just treading water.

Herd mentality is indeed a problem. However, we are discussing herd immunity which is a good thing.

I feel that folks have far too much time on their hands what with the stay at home guidelines. They read and put together strange hypotheses hoping to save the world. I feel it is healthy to be informed but harmful to try to inflict your beliefs on others.

I hope we develop head immunity and a vaccine, but that doesn’t always work. Think about the common cold. Time will tell.

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred.

Besides, herd immunity to COVID-19 is still only a theory. Nobody knows whether or not there is actually any immunity at all, and if there is, how long it lasts.

Other nations seem to have had very good results with their strict lockdown strategies, such as South Korea & Greece.