Second coronavirus wave unlikely in Denmark: top expert
 

Denmark apparently has epidemiologists that are smarter than Dr Fauci.


A second wave of the new coronavirus is unlikely in Denmark as the reproduction rate has stayed below a key threshold since restrictions were eased a month ago, a top health expert said Tuesday.

The reproduction rate has fallen from 1.0 at the end of April to 0.7 in the first week in May, according to the state-run infectious disease prevention agency SSI, the nation's top institute of its kind.

A reproduction rate of 1.0 means that one person with COVID-19 infects on average just one other, while a rate of less than 1.0 indicates that the spread is declining.
"If the virus were allowed to spread freely and we were doing nothing, then it would be likely that we would have a second wave of COVID-19 ... but we have learned more about how to handle this illness," SSI expert Kare Molbak told reporters.

Denmark shut down schools, shops, restaurants and businesses in mid-March in a bid to curb the spread of the disease.

It was the first country in Europe to reopen its nursery and primary schools on April 15.
Since then small businesses like hair salons, dentist offices and tattoo parlours have been allowed to reopen, followed this week by shopping centres and department stores.

This progressive return to normal life has not led to an increase in the number of confirmed cases, with the reproduction rate remaining below 1.0.

Second coronavirus wave unlikely in Denmark: top expert

And you read it on a nternet so it must be true

On a nternet? Chuckle

Dr Kare Molbak is the State epidemiologist of Denmark, equivalent to Dr Fauci's position here. See all those quotation marks?

Those are direct quotes from Dr Molbak.

Actually it must be correct because it is what the poster wants to believe....always find an "expert" that suits your agenda right?

I think they call this projection.

Since we are beginning to open here in Florida and other states, I am looking at places like Denmark where they did so earlier to see if the cases are spiking.

As Spock would say, it would be illogical to do otherwise.

Denmark started opening up one month ago. A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection. So a drop in the infection rate over 30 days is good news.

I read that Wuhan China had 6 new cases, but in a city of 11 million that's a thumbtack, not a spike. They are making new tests mandatory for all 11 million citizens, so that should produce some interesting data on possibility of large spikes after opening.

spent over a week in Denmark last summer, roaming around freely interacting with many of the locals (not on a tour)...nice country..

very, very different country, culture, behavior from what we have here in the States

I'm pleased to hear that Denmark may not encounter a serious second wave of the virus...they are good people

I also believe that we should be able to learn from everyone and study what they've done and the results that they achieve regarding covid-19

That said, give the differences and variables between the States and Denmark on so many levels, I just don't see how a comparison of Denmark to the US could be done 'apples to apples'

What differences in Denmark would not make it susceptible to experience a serious second wave of infections after reopening? Denmark has a much higher population density than USA with 88% of citizens living in urban areas and 347 people per square mile. Pretty sure that density is a huge driver of infection rates.

Attachment 84105

Photo of Danish school children in a classroom taken 2 days after Denmark reopened their schools. No masks, desks are spread nicely. This was a month ago. No reports of 1000s of kids catching covid 19.

Maybe Denmark represents a realistic combination of science and common sense.

Here In America there is far too much political and media driven fear and wild a$$ guesstimating.....hence common sense doesn't get much play.

I don't think most countries have people willing to trash their economy in order to gain an advantage.

Totally agree!

hate to say this...and I am not trying to make you wrong...because I've liked many of your posts...but don't you sound like Hillary Clinton "What difference does it make?" LOL

okay so you're in the density camp...the country of Denmark as a whole is no where near as dense as NYC

the difference in the ingrained culture,,, the difference in the human behavior and the difference in the number of people flying into the US from Europe vs. flying into Denmark make all the difference...

Danish people are VERY different from folks in the US....if you had you spent any time there among them you would immediately know this

your professional (non military) career may not have allowed you the opportunity to spend much time overseas, or in an international role...if it had, you'd most likely see this the same way I do (again...not a knock)

Europeans see the world very differently than we do in the US

we've spent a lot of time in Europe for business and for pleasure...I had many Europeans reporting directly to me for decades....they don't look thru life with the same lenses that we do

that said

Denmark has a population of 5.8 million...the US has 328.2
Denmark consists of 16.6 square miles...the US 3.8 Million
Denmark has 4 international airports...the US has 149

maybe comparing Denmark to Rhode Island or Delaware might make sense from some vectors...but don't come back to me with square miles...as I'm just using this as an example for talking points and haven't compared the land mass

I'm all for learning from what Denmark is experiencing....but please, don't try to equate
Denmark to the US...that's just not realistic

in closing...I choose not to continue an online debate with you on this....I've said my piece and I'm totally willing to honor what you choose to believe...and we'll leave it at that

stay safe and continue to enjoy the good life

I'm not in the density camp, it's a proven fact that higher density produces more infections in a pandemic. See NYC data. All the US states are choosing different strategies, continue lockdown, limited reopening etc. So I am not comparing Denmark to the whole country, just to various reopening strategies here. I am not "choosing to believe "something, just looking at data on a reopening process.

I've been to 75 foreign countries, including Denmark.

The virus doesn't care what "lens" you look at life through. It infects you the same way all over the world. The purpose of my post was to look at a country that reopened a month ago to see how they are doing. So far so good. I hope it stays that way.

I don't care to debate this with you any further :icon_wink: