The stock market is off the rails
 

According to this person's opinion anyway.

So what's your point ??

There are some who will use anything in order to gain an advantage. Pandemics, race wars, crashing the economy, doesn't matter how many are hurt or killed.

Then there are others who panicked and sold their portfolios at a loss and are now confused by a market that keeps going back up.

Irrational exuberance. :ho:

Dow rallies 900 points for the first time since early April amid historic jobs surge

U.S. employers added a shocking 2.5 million jobs last month — the largest gain on record — while the unemployment rate slid to 13.3%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a drop of more than 8 million jobs and the unemployment rate to nearly reach 20%, which would have been the highest since the 1930s.

Attachment 84445

As Yogi said - It's not over till it's over - still have a long, long way to go including a vaccine and treatment for virus that did not go away

The only reason for the "historic job surge" is the "historic job plunge" last month. So basically - we're still at a significant loss.

But hey, if you had 10 widgets, lost 9 of them and then get 1 back, it's a better headline saying "widgets increased by 100%"...than "widgets are up to 20% of what they were at one point." :1rotfl:

An assessment that any recovery in the economy will take until "2025 or 2030" seems incredibly pessimistic to me.

People sitting at home unable to work is bound to cause unemployment numbers to rise and production to fall, yet the media is announcing these things as if they were unexpected.

Once people get back to work, which most of them will have done before the end of 2020, these numbers will be back to close to pre-covid levels. Add in the pent up demand from consumers (not just products, but services, too) and the likelihood that, having been caught out by "just in time" stocking, companies will adopt "just in case" levels of stock and you have a recipe for a quick recovery in the economy.

As already pointed out, the stock market is evaluating the future not the present and, in my opinion, that future is 2021, not 2025 or 2030.

Bull vs Bear, Bear takes a 15 yd penalty today!
 

Although a valid opinion, the supply chains coming from around the world might have different or less solvable issues that will constrain the US re-stocking. The urban exodus with the work from home movement may require a different distribution system. Houses in suburbia are selling fast. A close friends daughter mid 20's came out of a Friday meeting where it was determined that everyone will WFH for now, maybe office visit 1-2 a quarter, and she bought a house the next Monday 3 hours from the city, prior to the house being on the market, from the builder at list price, with a one hour time limit on the offer, with a real estate agent who had an idea for that type of person's requirements.

Another example, company's discussing return to office plans are seeing huge elevator restrictions, so high rise offices will be out of favor for a while. Both mine and coachk's have these restrictions.

So retail supply and distribution systems will be changed, and that won't be without pain of deflation in real estate in some areas and abrupt inflation in another, and debt repayment issues, will hopefully be avoided.

Workforce turnover with age discrimination will be another, where older white collar workers who aren't ready or able to retire early will be forced to accept lower wages, which will cause a drag on disposable income sales, and older toy sales, ie deflation.

So, the stock market is not the economy, WFH relocation may cause more unintended consequences than are currently expected. Debt issues have been deferred, not solved, and so while the news is good, its just for today, as the future is uncertain, with some days more than others.

So glad that the TV house is fully WFH secure with high speed internet available with hard wired outlets in every room for a secure environment. Multiple monitor space available at the desks. So good we are driving down to WFH in TV for the rest of june!

Good points and...have a safe trip. :thumbup:

An interesting point to consider
 

Employers needed the “hire back” furloughed employees, to qualify for loan forgiveness.
But they can fire them again in August, but keep the money borrowed.

So, the theory is that this money is to hold them over until an expected recovery later this summer, and that the money will be spent on prior employees.

Reality may be different, such as not spending the money and limited clawback attempts. Also, not sure if there will be any recourse for hiring different / new employees.

will be interesting

sportsguy

You are concerned about working from home and using Wi-Fi? That is one reason to use a VPN. Virtually all companies that allow people to work from home will require a VPN to access internal systems.

It takes a team effort to hit the bulls eye.
Those who shoots the arrows.
Those who paints a bullseye around where ever the arrows land.

The bullseye special interest group and the media report....

"SEE" the number of bulls eye hits they made.

Whoops, "misclassification error," jobless numbers a "mistake" and likely three percentage points higher than the touted 13.3%.

The May jobs report had 'misclassification error' that made the unemployment rate look lower than it is. Here's what happened - StamfordAdvocate