Is Coronavirus Testing Data Flawed?
 

Florida and New York both have about the same population. Both states are testing about the same number of people for the virus per day. But, recently, the data results are showing that Florida has about 10 times as many confirmed cases per day as New York. Is that because people in New York are 10 times more prudent at avoiding the virus? I don't think so. I think that part of the discrepancy can be explained by the fact that the people being tested are not a true representation of the population. Most people are only tested because they chose to be tested, and so they show up at a testing center. In that respect, I believe the data is flawed. I suspect that the circumstances for people who decide to get tested are different in Florida vs New York.

I think the testing is flawed and the sharing of the numbers are misrepresented in favor of the political talking point of the ones reporting. Four weeks ago I was tested for covid by spitting into a sterile cup. Others have Q-tips inserted into their brains. So which test is accurate? Is it necessary to torture people or could everybody just spit in a cup? I have a friend who knows a family in NYC who all came down with the same symptoms. Only two of the four tested positive for covid. A few weeks later, they tested for antibodies. Two the tested positive for covid tested negative for antibodies. And the two who tested negative for covid, tested positive for antibodies. WHAT?

Any patient in the hospital for covid gets tested everyday. So if they were in the hospital for 12 days, they would have 12 positive tests. I have heard these 12 positives are being reported and interpreted as 12 new cases. Reporting is statistically flawed, IMHO, based on the reporting organizations desires to prove more or less. This is just my opinion.

I have heard of both false positive and false negative results. Just went to the doctor earlier this week and asked if there was any point in getting a test if I showed no symptoms and hadn’t been anywhere, and always wore my mask (eg., grocery store). Also, as noted above, is double-counting occurring, if someone has more than one test?

The doctor said don’t bother. I just don’t see the point if the above conditions are met.

New York was hit with the virus earlier and their cases peaked on April 10. Florida was seeded with virus carriers from New York and our cases peaked on July 18. Virus appears to hit different latitudes harder at different times of the year, similar to the flu.

New York appears to have hit the low herd immunity threshold postulated by Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt where virus burns out after infecting 15-25% of population. This is why they have very few new cases now. Florida appears to have peaked July 18 and new cases are going down. We should be in same position as New York by end of September. The tests are fairly accurate with low rates of false results, but they are not perfect.

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"The United States has recorded more than 2,000 coronavirus deaths in 24 hours, the highest number of daily fatalities in three months, Johns Hopkins University's real-time tally showed Thursday.

The country, which has seen a major resurgence in coronavirus since the end of June, added 2,060 deaths in one day as well as more than 58,000 new cases, the Baltimore-based university showed at 8:30 pm (0030 GMT Friday).

The last time the US recorded more than 2,000 deaths in 24 hours was on May 7."

US Records More Than 2,000 Deaths in 24 Hours for First Time in 3 Months

And that's why the testing numbers are a guid and have little meaning. Hospitalizations and deaths are, to me, the true indicators. The other numbers are just noise.

I think you are correct. Flare ups in other parts of the US tend to confirm this.

Maybe add a percentage of the population practicing safe practices. If 50%, the combination approaches 70-80% so as long as safe practices are maintained in that percentage of the population?