Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks
 

I will give this talk on Aug 16 at 1 PM at the Everglades Recreation Center. It is sponsored by the Science and Technology Club - South.

The presentation discusses how these predictions are made and replicates the basic process used to arrive at hurricane season outlooks.

Unlike the pseudo-scientific "biorhythms" fad of the 1970s, there are several atmospheric rhythms (or cycles) of the earth that have been proven to be statistically significant at predicting storm potential. However, except for the earth's fixed, 12-month seasonal cycle, all the other cycles have variable periods. These variable period cycles make hurricane outlook predictions very challenging.

The professional forecast agencies (private and government) typically examine 10 or more atmospheric cycles for making hurricane predictions. This presentation will only look at the 6 cycles that are most influential in making hurricane seasonal outlooks.

John Shewchuk

So… what is the hurricane outlook for this season in layman’s terms?

On average the Atlantic has 3 major hurricanes (Cat 3 and higher). NOAA is forecasting 3-5 major hurricanes. Not only do most storms stay out at sea, but the trend for landing-falling hurricanes is decreasing. However, always be prepared.