Florida Hospitals being overrun?
 

I keep seeing headlines like these in the media:

Florida hospitals are overrun as state fights one of the worst Covid outbreaks in the U.S.

The fear merchants in the media are using the same tricks they deployed during the last surge. They find a few hospitals that are at 100% capacity or beyond, and write the article to imply its all hospitals.

I like to check John Hopkins website for accurate data.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

You can hover your cursor over each week to get the 7 day moving average. For the week ending yesterday (Aug 15) Florida shows 91% of ICU beds occupied, which is busy but they normally run at 85%. The ICU beds occupied by covid patients is less than 50%, so hospitals are busy treating all kinds of patients.

What about the entire US?

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Total ICU beds occupied = 76%

Covid patients occupy 22% of all ICU beds available

The Florida Delta surge will peak fairly soon and then start going down, just like last summer. Now the Delta surge will start happening up north as it gets cooler. We'll see if they write the same panic inducing reports when that happens.

Still a strain on the system
 

ICU beds need to be available for all the people who have other events such as heart attacks and accidents. The FL plot clearly shows how the Covid surge is pushing out other users. FL is blessed with lots of ICU beds due to having lots of old people and many hospitals. But the graph clearly shows that this surge is bigger than those in the past. AND, I have read that Covid ICU patients require more staff. So besides the actual bed and equipment you have to have staff. I think doctors consider running at 91% of total capacity and nearly 50% are Covid a dire situation.

Current covid % of ICU beds available = 47%

The graph only goes back to week ending Aug 2, 2020, when covid % of ICU beds = 40%

Last summer the date of peak cases was mid July 12, that wave hit Florida earlier than this one, so if the graph went back a few more weeks the % of covid ICU beds would be a few points higher, so not that big of a difference from now.

If you look at the graph for all of USA, the peak covid % of ICU beds was larger in January 2021 than it is now.

There is no doubt that the Delta variant is infecting large number of people. The good news is that the Infection Fatality Rate is much lower than in previous waves. The average age of current covid cases is lower, (most older americans are vaccinated and covid kills much less in younger age groups) and we also have better treatments in the hospitals.

Some scientists I read think we are close to peak cases in Florida, deaths will go up at bit more (but never reach previous peaks) and then start to fall

Attachment 90464

The stats do not support that exaggerated statement. A surge of hospitalizations but not greater than the past unless you are suggesting the immediate past. In that case, anything greater is a surge.

Texas hospitals are overrun with Covid infected illegal immigrants who are taking 75% of the beds. CDC says they aren’t following Covid 19 cases on the southern border.

What is the source for this?

ICE Guidance on COVID-19 | ICE

Texas health director was on tv this morning. They tried to avoid this but were blocked by the admin getting an injunction from a friendly judge. With the mess in Afghanistan the border surge will intensify with 13% of illegals tested being Covid positive and over 200,000 illegals entering each month. And now terrorists will be crossing that border.

IF the OPs numbers are correct, then ICU bed occupancy at 91% vs, 85% norm is no big deal. In NY, we were generally at 110-120% ICU occupancy from 1980-2015 (the excess patients had to be held in the ER or the recovery rooms).
And I see no reason why "COVID patients" would require more staff than the usual disasters in the ICU. So this doctor does not consider it a "dire situation", perhaps someone can name a few that do?

What channel? There is news and then there is extremely slanted news.

With the fall of Afghanistan refugees from there would probably go to where there are existing social support systems. Afghan Americans - Wikipedia

The Texas health director interview was on MSNBC.
But they are known to have extremely slanted news.

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

A few more will die and all will be good? Up north they will not complain? Northerners only complain when they come to the south?

Went to one of those stand-alone ERs - I fell and hurt my knee. I drove up - I thought they were closed - totally empty - immediately took me in and was out in less than 30 minutes.

Based on some of the news reports - I was expecting a long long line and a 6 hour wait.

You call them “ panic inducing reports” yet you continue to repost the articles which causes the panic. Read the articles, throw them away. No need to regurgitate everything you read, and some articles have lousy sources

I can tell from reading the responses above that most who have taken time to post are naysayers regarding the gravity of the COVID problem in Florida and nearby. I guess I don’t know why, but that’s not worth discussing.

Yes, there are lots of statistics published by various sources, but not all are easily interpreted or current. But there are reliable anecdotal reports which are also available to each of us

I was personally told by two of my doctors last Thursday that as of the day before, no hospital within 75 miles of The Villages was accepting new patients for ANY reason unless they had a room vacated. They rattled off the names of all the hospitals that I was familiar with from Ocala south to north of Orlando.

They told me that the hospitals in Ocala were sending COVID patients home with a tank of oxygen and a mask, which has now resulted in a shortage of oxygen in the area.

I live nearby The Villages Regional Hospital and I can count the number of sirens I’ve heard going into the ER in the last couple of weeks on one hand. I drove by yesterday and the ER parking lot was more than half empty.

The hospitals have cancelled all but necessary surgeries or procedures of any kind, as have many doctor’s offices. The Villages Health offices were reported to have 26 COVID cases among their staff. My primary care doctor is only doing “tele-health” appointments for the time being.

The 250 doctor statewide Florida Cancer Specialists have cancelled all but required chemo and radiation treatments and mandated that all employees be vaccinated by next Monday as a requirement to work. One of my doctors told me that 4 of his patients died last week from COVID, all male, less than 40 years old, and all unvaccinated.

Is the reported COVID spike in Florida hitting close to home here in The Villages? Use the statistics, but also consider what you’re seeing among your own friends and neighbors.

Call your doctor and ask. That would be a better source of information than any opinion you read here. Then draw your own conclusions.