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-   -   Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/just-remainder-there-years-negative-stock-index-returns-337690/)

CoachKandSportsguy 12-26-2022 10:07 AM

Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns
 
Years worth of gains wiped out on some individual names:

TSLA -68%
META -66%
NFLX -51%
AMZN -50%
NVDA -50%
GOOGL -39%
MSFT -30%
AAPL -27%


DIS at 2014 levels
META at 2017 levels
NFLX at 2018 levels
CRM at 2018 levels
ADBE at 2020 levels
AMZN at 2018 levels
PYPL at 2017 levels
TWLO at 2018 levels
CRWD at 2020 levels
ROKU at 2018 levels
SHOP at 2019 levels
SQ at 2018 levels
DOCU at 2018 levels
OKTA at 2018 levels


The 2000 bear market lasted THREE years, with the worst year being year THREE.
2000: -10%
2001: -13%
2002: -23%

"The best thing that could happen to Equities is a CRASH
because we can just move on. Quickly, like in March 2020.
But no!

This time you have to suffer:
You have to pay for 10 years of federal reserve / government excesses
And by the end of this, you will be begging for a Crash."

- Marquis de Shrub

Keep your capital safe!

finance trader guy

manaboutown 12-26-2022 10:16 AM

:popcorn::popcorn::popcorn:

ureout 12-26-2022 01:48 PM

I hope your advice is much better than your spelling


Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns

Robbb 12-26-2022 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ureout (Post 2170090)
I hope your advice is much better than your spelling


Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns

Yea but who cares, he makes some good points.

Babubhat 12-26-2022 03:11 PM

If you don’t have a longer timeframe you shouldn’t own stocks. It’s okay to bet against using ETF. Highly profitable this year.

coralway 12-26-2022 03:49 PM

There is always a bull market somewhere.

manaboutown 12-26-2022 04:18 PM

"More Market Pain Ahead" - Jason Trennert

WEALTHTRACK | Listen to Podcasts On Demand Free | TuneIn

CoachKandSportsguy 12-26-2022 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ureout (Post 2170090)
I hope your advice is much better than your spelling


Just a remainder that there are years of negative stock / index returns

Ackshuahlee, i am at the end of my W-2 career, there are no more promotions, I almost told the VP for f* off with his full of crap lies, so the same goes for anyone else here. . i am not going to school, so i don't really care about spelling or spell check changes, or grades, or professors in prior lives thinking this is still a class room . .

so live with an extra a or other letter in a random word or two. . . besides, sometimes i spell words with Bahston ahkcents

Babubhat 12-26-2022 06:28 PM

Well a financial advisory firm in the villages news today seems to be doing well during the decline. Etfs are all you need.

No advisor should be a paid a cent if they can’t provide positive risk adjusted returns.

manaboutown 12-26-2022 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Babubhat (Post 2170171)
Well a financial advisory firm in the villages news today seems to be doing well during the decline. Etfs are all you need.

No advisor should be a paid a cent if they can’t provide positive risk adjusted returns.

You mean Skip West?

rsmurano 12-27-2022 05:39 AM

A lot of bad information in this thread.
For 1, if you are suffering, it’s your own fault. Everybody saw this coming. I got out last January when it was at its high. I hope this market crashes in 2023 because it’s going to be 1 heck of a buying opportunity later on. I do my own investing. If you are worried about riding the bad times out, you could have put trailing stop losses on your equities so if they go down X amount or X%, they would be sold. This takes the emotion out of buying and selling.
Or you could have sold everything.

As for the comment about all etfs being good or that’s all you need, is false. There are thousands of etfs and I bet right now most have fallen the same % as the market has. What is an etf but a collection of individual company stocks and the stock market is 10-30% down overall. Sure, there are some etfs making money because the company stocks that make up the etf are making money, but they are the minority.

This year, cash is king. I invested in 1 fund 2 different times this year and made close to 30% in 2 months each time then got out.

Some investors will tell you you can’t time the market which I agree. Like I said early on that I saw a disaster coming a year ago and acted on it. Now when things turn around, maybe the end of 2023 or maybe 2024, when I get back in, I will make a 30% or more profit instead of waiting for the market to make back 30% just to get even from the late 2021 highs.

skarra 12-27-2022 05:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsmurano (Post 2170212)
A lot of bad information in this thread.
For 1, if you are suffering, it’s your own fault. Everybody saw this coming. I got out last January when it was at its high. I hope this market crashes in 2023 because it’s going to be 1 heck of a buying opportunity later on. I do my own investing. If you are worried about riding the bad times out, you could have put trailing stop losses on your equities so if they go down X amount or X%, they would be sold. This takes the emotion out of buying and selling.
Or you could have sold everything.

As for the comment about all etfs being good or that’s all you need, is false. There are thousands of etfs and I bet right now most have fallen the same % as the market has. What is an etf but a collection of individual company stocks and the stock market is 10-30% down overall. Sure, there are some etfs making money because the company stocks that make up the etf are making money, but they are the minority.

This year, cash is king. I invested in 1 fund 2 different times this year and made close to 30% in 2 months each time then got out.

Some investors will tell you you can’t time the market which I agree. Like I said early on that I saw a disaster coming a year ago and acted on it. Now when things turn around, maybe the end of 2023 or maybe 2024, when I get back in, I will make a 30% or more profit instead of waiting for the market to make back 30% just to get even from the late 2021 highs.


You mention how you cannot time the market, and then talk about your gains when you time it just right. That’s BS.

Stick with stocks for the long term (preferably in index funds), and keep cash for short term bumps like this. Then gradually sell stocks at other times to maintain your life style.

Babubhat 12-27-2022 05:53 AM

In the long term we are all dead. Another meaningless term that should be banished. Life events can change quickly.

retiredguy123 12-27-2022 06:07 AM

Most financial advisors are hypocritical. They will tell you that "no one can time the market" and that "past returns are not an indication of future results". But, they totally ignore those concepts when providing investment advice.

skarra 12-27-2022 06:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Babubhat (Post 2170215)
In the long term we are all dead. Another meaningless term that should be banished. Life events can change quickly.

Nah … long term is 20-30 years. I’ll still be alive by then if I’m lucky/unlucky.

I plan for the worst case - living a long life into my 90’s. Not that I necessarily want that.


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