The end is near?
 

Of the rental market that is. I'm staying in Richmond on a small block, in that block 4 of the 12 homes are rentals, 2 of which are rented. Today on one of the rental sites there are 49 homes for rent in March. With new rentals coming on the market every day, Ya gotta wonder if home rentals in the Villages are the soon to be crash that everyone is fearing.

Going Soft
 

I agree, summer is around the corner and everything points to a rental crash soon. I see prices falling almost daily in the market. The housing supply is in explosion mode.

Good, then house prices will drop to a more reasonable level.

Many people buy before they are ready to retire and rent their house out until they are ready to move in permanently...

Personally, It's not for me, but it's quite common...

Sorely needed.
I think about young people and they're ability to enter the housing market.

Not fearing, hoping.

Right!

It's been said that many new houses were recently bought for the purpose of renting out. If the rental market is softening, then I wonder if houses in the newest areas will sell at a less frenzied pace than recently if the buyers-to-rent are absent from the market.

For fun let's project your statistics to all of TV and see if the old R square correlation exists. 4 of 12 homes are rentals = 33%. 2 of those 4 are not rented = 50% of rentals are available. TV has approximately 80000 homes. 80000 x 33% = 26400 rental homes of which 50% should be not rented, If there is correlation to the Richmond experience then 13200 Villages homes should be available for rent March 2023. Considering you found 49 homes for rent in all of The Villages homes for March it would probably be safe to conclude there is no correlation between Richmond and all of TV.

This data would seem to suggest rentals in March 2023 are in high demand and the Richmound data is not a valid sample size to draw a statistically confident conclusion from and appears to be an anomaly that is worthy of more exploration.

There has always been one truism in the world of real estate. It's always about "location".

Comparing Richmond and points South in The Villages, is an entire different world than the more traditional areas of TV. The South is not the same and never will be.

No matter what the original subject is, it usually ends up north vs south. Makes me laugh.

My thought exactly as I read his last sentence. But he made a good stretch to get there.

Average rentals are under contract usually a year in advance. Our long term unfurnished had inquiries anywhere from 5 months to over a year for next potential occupancy. yearly inquiries sometimes were 15, with some years upwards of 50. Home was under contract 1 day after closing, we turned down 19, the first year, with only 1 week of advertising. Home was rented solid from November 2012 to the day we sold in December of 2021

High season homes are usually booked a year in advance, unless it’s a new close. If 50% of the homes you speak of just went into rental pool just few months ago, they are doing well. We found larger homes seemed to rent quickly, and those with a pool never sat on the rental market for more than a week.

I don't know how one can lump Richmond in as a bad location. It's the closest village to Brownwood south of 44.

When I bought in Hillsborough, new house, in 2014, there were like 40-50 rentals the first few years. I think I counted 8 this year(in Hillsbourgh). Nothing new that there are a bunch of rentals down south. The funniest thing is that all the new Landlords said they were going to get $6000 a month in high season for 2024 (there is a landlord thread on Facebook). I told them they were all nuts. Raised rents on my return renters by 10% for next year to cover my costs (both houses I have are rented about 11 months a year, almost exclusively repeat renters) Yeah, now they are all dropping rents down to where they should be. There is plenty of demand, it will all even out. I have 2 designers I bought for $245 range and they cashflow nicely (never going to get rich). I have no idea how you make money when you buy one at $450.... with a 7% mortgage. The math does not work. Believe me, a lot of them will sell. Look for deals on Patio villas next year, there will be some running.

The way you make money is the renters help pay the mortgage and expenses, and then the home appreciates so you make most of the money when you sell (or finally retire and move in :)). Rentals are an inflation hedge with a very nice tax treatment. Anyone who thinks otherwise in TV is fooling themselves. If high season rents go too high, people will just buy. It is easy math.
Ed