Property market crash?
 

There are plenty of signs of a severe downturn in US property, with home sales down for 12 straight months in a row, the weakest set of numbers for more than a decade.

If the property market crashes, it will tip the economy into recession.

If there are losses on mortgages, it will threaten the stability of the financial markets and will determine what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates.

In 2008, the collapse of the subprime mortgage market triggered a global financial crisis.

Duh
 

Ain’t be got nuttin do do with declining inventories from all the ny/cali escapees?

In last three years real estate market went up up up and nothing goes up forever.

will be interesting to see what happens next. Rise in interest rates seems to be having a great effect on housing markets and the softening is just beginning.

For most of the country the big selling season is around the corner. People sell and buy in the spring so they can settle in at the end of the school year. That has caused the prices up the last few years.

Why the housing market isn't like 2008:
* Fixed rate mortgages interest rates have been very low and many purchased and refinanced with low rates
* Banks' capital structure is much less leveraged that 2008
* The US is still short homes vs the household formation growth
* There are lots of cash sales from boomers retiring and downsizing
* the energy market is declining and causing less stress on the marginal buyer
* working from home makes workers more immune to energy spikes
* retail product inflation is receding and some are deflating. .

so there will be a lot more pain required in the labor market to start the default spiral again.

Note: The 2008 summer olympics in Bejing caused a multi year increase in commodities and energy to build the massive structures for the opening ceremonies. Check the price of energy right before the olympics started and then several months afterwards. . .

However the spike in energy squeezed a lot of marginal home owners and the some of the defaults started. . . choice between driving to job and paying mortgage, and can't pay mortgage without driving to the job. . . defaults started with the over leveraged home owners.

So that squeeze caused some of the overleveraged home owner mortgage defaults, and the spiral started.. . . the payment equilibrium blew up. . .

finance guy who had transferred all mutual funds to cash in the summer of 2007 and gave a presentation of such at work. . . where people had no idea of what I was presenting. . .

good luck

It's always a good time to buy a house. Ask any real estate agent.

All property markets are local. Period

There will not be another 2008 like housing crash until there is another housing glut and renting makes more financial sense than owning a home.

Home prices can and probably will decline due to a broader economic downturn caused by the Federal Governments fiscal irresponsibility in running up tens of trillions in debt.

Always best during the first half of the calendar year.

As the market 🌎 turns
 

good move

Make a prediction......................you will find "professionals" agreeing with it and disagreeing with it.

:mornincoffee:

1 of the big contributors to the 2007/2008 crash was the over leverage of loans. People who couldn’t afford a home loan was given a loan and investors packaged up these bad loans into packages that they sold all over the world. I know people that had 5 homes being built for them in 2007 because they were going to flip them when finished. When people couldn’t repay their loans because of layoffs or cutbacks from employers and homes started sitting and not selling, people lost all of their down payments and all those investments of junk loans were worthless, financial institutions lost money.
When they loosened up the requirements for home loans and financial institutions knew certain people would have a hard time repaying the loan even if something minor would happen, we were doomed. If you can’t afford a home, you shouldn’t be able to buy 1

Us Business Insider says, The US housing market does not have enough homes to meet current demand — and is short by 3.8 million, according to a new report from mortgage giant Freddie Mac. The supply crunch increased 52% between 2018 and the end of 2020, helping to drive up the price of homes in the US, according to the report, which was released Thursday……

Fyi
 

All you need to know, or as the fonz says
" ayyyyyyyy"