What happened to the rain?
 

According to the forecast, we were supposed to get 4-5 inches of much needed rain this week. I was looking forward to a few rainy days.

The heaviest rain was supposed to be today. I only got about 1/4 inch yesterday and the current forecast shows very little rain for today. And forecasts for Thursday and Friday are much less than they were on Sunday.

I live in Sawgrass. Any significant rain in other areas of the Villages?

It’s Florida it rains here but not two or three miles away especially in the summer. Watch the weather on television and they generally tell you who got rain and who didn’t. We are currently traveling so I don’t know if it rain in my Village or not unless I talk to a neighbor. It doesn’t matter as my irrigation will take care of the yard anyway.

Surprised we got so little

Don’t give up on it yet, still early.

I’m in the Hammock @ Fenney….we hardly got any.

I turned off my irrigation in anticipation of rain. Sorry! My bad!

What happened???.........it bounced off the bubble.

Hopefully, the hurricane season will treat us the same way.

This is a common result of fast-changing jet-stream patterns -- the models can't handle it -- which is part of the reason why all the climate models are failures. The rains are farther south, but we did get some "relatively" cooler air. This failure to forecast the rain lies in the fact that the models still don't understand how the sun controls our climate -- which explains why the models are unable to see why hurricanes and tornadoes have been decreasing for the past 30 years. This will discussed at 4 PM this Friday (June 14) at Lake Miona for the Philosophy Club.

We’ve been in TV for ten years now. Can’t tell you how many times it was “100% rain” forecast. Checked out radar and, clear - then yellow- then orange - then RED - then clear. So many times watching radar it looked like Moses parting the sea right before it came to us.
Forecast and radar looks like red/orange from 5-6:00. Don’t take that to any bank.
In one word…. Florida.

Not to be confused with the Weather Club?

Weather forecasters often predict more rain than actually occurs. It happens too often to be an error. Personally, I think they do it on purpose. I don't know why, but could it be that, if it rains and they didn't predict it, they will be more heavily criticized?

There has always been a propensity to over-forecast throughout history -- choosing to be better warned than not at all. The bigger problem is lack of data and lack of knowledge about how our atmosphere & climate works -- which is why forecasts quickly deteriorate with time - especially during rapidly changing jet streams.

It went south.

No, it doesn’t work that way. Precipitation forecasts (what you hear and read from people) are driven by the precipitation amounts generated by numerical weather prediction models. If the models are putting 4” of precip on the ground then the folks on television are going to be saying the same thing unless there is some truly compelling reason not to believe it. However, models do have documented biases (and random errors) and adjustments may be made to attempt to deals with those biases. There may also be misinterpretation of the forecasts that people hear. For example, if you hear that there is a 50% chance of showers and it doesn’t rain where you are then you may interpret this as an over forecast of precipitation. Model performance is continually monitored and models are improved regularly to reduce errors.

Thank your God that Philosophers will only be discussing the weather.
Can you imagine how long the weather forecast would last if they were giving it?