Take Gains / Buy Puts
 

Macro regime change with several monthly reported Fed series, the big one is Retail sales this week, and after adjusted for inflation, its negative year over year.

Sentiment is way too bullish with AAII bullish reading at the near record levels in the last 5 years

Fundamentals are very poor with the Equity Risk Premium very, very low and credit spreads very tight.

My 97 year old mom's 5% SPY went to cash on Tuesday, the remainder sits in 2 year mostly Treasury Bond Fund

My accounts are 90% cash, 5% rare earth metals and 5% Sept SPY puts (cash value, Notional value = 100% account short) as of yesterday noon

Fed
 

Good planning. There is nothing wrong with cash getting 5%. Many indicators are indicating the downturn in the market. The FED isn’t budging anytime soon on interest rates. They have a stubborn 3% mark that can’t seem to get to or move below the 2% metric.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/real...ps/ar-BB1oAw0a

Take Gains / Buy Puts

Played local course yesterday, and I couldn't buy a putt either.

If I took gains I would pay enormous taxes and end up about where I would be if the market took a serious dump as most of my holdings are in taxable accounts. Plus once taxes are paid that money has gone bye bye forever to be squandered by the government. I am not a trader. Mostly I have invested in stocks to buy into solid businesses. I am about 60-40 stocks to T bills at present. More than 3/4 of my net worth remains in real estate anyway. Stocks have always been a bit of a sideline for me.

best for you to do if you don't need the money is to just wait and pass it on at the death date mark up. . .

Advice is more for the tax free accounts and when to move money from IRAs to taxable rollovers to ROTH IRAs. Always pays best to move the money when the account is large versus when the account is small.

Yes, I am hoping for a stepped up basis to benefit my RLT beneficiaries and devisees. The law could change, though.

I never had much in my IRA but in a very low taxable income year (2002?) I moved it all into a Roth IRA.

Inheritance taxes may soon become a serious problem for more people if and when the base exemption amount drops from $13.61M back down to $5M in 2026. That is very, very scary.

With market timing, timing is everything.

:evil6:

Exactly.

Lots of research studies show underperformance of market timers over the long run compared to buy and hold. We hear stories from market timers when they make winning bets and almost never when they make losing bets.

You have to get a better hobby!

Market timing is a fools game. You have to be right on both ends....getting out, then getting back in.

Time to fine new golf partners.