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-   -   Probability, Prediction, Gambling, Futures Markets (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/probability-prediction-gambling-futures-markets-351205/)

FredMitchell 07-05-2024 05:46 AM
Probability, Prediction, Gambling, Futures Markets
 
The title says it all. Don't want to mislead anyone about the nature of this site. This post is for your enjoyment.

dewilson58 07-05-2024 05:48 AM
:popcorn::popcorn::popcorn:

CoachKandSportsguy 07-05-2024 08:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FredMitchell (Post 2347190)
The title says it all. Don't want to mislead anyone about the nature of this site. This post is for your enjoyment.
LOL! voluntary money gambling crowd sourced opinions. . .
and in most financially based outcomes, the crowd is usually wrong (not always, but usually). . . its what they want, not what will most likely happen. . .

YMMV

Topspinmo 07-05-2024 09:04 AM
I wouldn’t bet penny for whole lot!

FredMitchell 07-05-2024 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Topspinmo (Post 2347324)
I wouldn’t bet penny for whole lot!
Well as of 12:41 PM, the were only 11 candidates that you could bet a penny (to win $1.00). You would have to click the "more contracts" link to see them. But I suspect from your comment, that you did not understand this market.

Dramatic shift today. Biden and Harris were each around 40c last night. Has the interview been leaked? Insider trading?

FredMitchell 07-05-2024 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2347319)
LOL! voluntary money gambling crowd sourced opinions. . .
and in most financially based outcomes, the crowd is usually wrong (not always, but usually). . . its what they want, not what will most likely happen. . .

YMMV
I am not sure what this means. More than half of the crowd will be right on almost all of the available bets, right?

Ken D. 07-06-2024 05:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FredMitchell (Post 2347190)
The title says it all. Don't want to mislead anyone about the nature of this site. This post is for your enjoyment.
Tim Ryan is not on the list, I’ll bet 70 cents on him


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