Hurricane Forecast Models
 

Two days ago the NHC forecast Ernesto to become a "major" hurricane. Yesterday the NHC dropped the "major" hurricane forecast. Discover the challenges facing hurricane models and why the Euro model is the best of them all ... Monday (Aug 19) at 10 AM at the Everglades -- for the Science & Technology Club (south). PS ... it was almost chilly this morning.

Remember Ian? Find out why this problem still exists ... Aug 19 at 10 AM at Everglades.

Earlier this year Michael Mann claimed there would be 33 named storms this year. So far we only had 7 ... so we only need another 26 more storms ... because so far Mr Mann has not updated his forecast.

Dunning-Kruger, party of two, Dunning-Kruger LOL

People who never studied STEM with an opinion...That is just laughable.

Heh.

In other breaking news, the sun came up this morning…

Here we are at the peak of hurricane season, and we're promised a record-breaking hurricane season ... and guess what ... the Atlantic is not cooperating. Maybe the oceans need to boil even hotter -- or maybe there's not enough CO2.

I don’t give much credence to the paid doom-and-gloomers. Their job is to spread fear and thus generate hits. They do it well.

I likewise don’t doubt the sincerity of those who take what they hear from the doom-and-bloomers as gospel. But it has been nearly two decades now and that avalanche of super hurricanes has yet to happen, and those sincere folks seem just as ready to swallow the avalanche of excuses generated by the aforesaid doom-and-bloomers as they were/are to swallow the super hurricane predictions in the first place.

Illogical, to say the least.

There have many quite destructive storms over the past few decades. Luck has been factor with many of them not being worse.

The "destruction" is not weather or climate -- it's a direct reflection of more people choosing to live in severe weather prone locations -- plus there's the increasing costs of construction -- and they all add up the false belief that storms are getting stronger. It's a popular scare-mongering tool.

Do you give credence to the paid big oil minions that claim everything is just peachy?
And, to clarify, a prediction is a guess, not a promise. Someone likes to claim we were "promised" a certain number of hurricanes. I'm glad that situations didn't happen as expected.

Which just takes me back to my belief of 6o years ago, which is that the root of mankind's problems all stem from overpopulation.
But, like the song says, "don't worry, be happy".

Mike's Weather Page thinks things are starting to fire up.

Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment!

Wait and see. This may be interesting ... or not. Patience, patience.

Facts
 

Pardon me if I just chirp in with a little science and fact. The Earth has been warming for quite some time. Underwater cities, some more than 10,000 years old riddle our seas across the globe. Their fates sealed by melting ice that initiated long, long, long ago before “recorded” history. The poles and glaciers have been continuously melting many millennia prior to mankind’s big Industrial Revolution.

It has been getting warmer, but man has had little to do with it.

The models are still all over the place but all are showing potential for a Cat 3/4/5...

All But 1 of the Nation's strongest 150 MPH or Greater events Were Tropical Storms 3 Days Before Landfall.

Mike's Weather Page...