[b]Getting that [color=red]crashy [/color]feeling tonight. . [/b]
 

Today closed below my cyclical wave support level, where now waves close lower than they start.

Fed Atlanta downgraded CY25 Q1 growth to -2.8% with a very good accuracy rate, like +/- 0.2%. Um, that's very abnormal and very large
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

middle of the page

Canada imported wholesale fuel prices going up 20 cents minimum, Irving Oil
Canada to halt nickel shipments to US. .
we might be able to use dimes, but not for very long.
Doug Ford, Premiere of Ontario on TV today, not sure which channel: "I will shut down the electricity to NY, MI and MN if I have to!"

The exit door may be very small, if one can even get through.

Good luck everyone, we will need it this week. .

If one is always predicting a bear market, or a crash, one will eventually be correct.
Same as if one is always predicting a bull market, one will eventually be correct.
Maybe if one is always predicting that cost of living will go up, they will be correct.
Same as if one is always predicting that one day they will not wake up, they will eventually be correct.

Sooner or later, they will all happen. Fretting that it is imminent and being correct does not necessarily mean one is a seer. It simply serves less a warning and more a downer in consumer enthusiam.

That's just my opinion, take it for the two cents it cost you.

I will have to trust in our broker. Current events in 2025 are very worrisome.

general common knowledge. . . definition of complacency

The market has been overheated for some time so a correction is in order. Shiller CAPE ratio was 37.97 in February. It has historically averaged in the 15 - 16 range.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Monthly Analysis: Shiller S&P 500 PE 10 | YCharts.

Marcus Goldman Sacks has a 14 month CD at 4.5% - looking good now!

Marcus Goldman Sacks has a 14 month CD at 4.5%. Looking good now

But on a lighter note, Duke is doing greeeaat!

Not wanting a crash, for sure, just the economic backdrop with tariffs, counter tariffs, govt cost savings, (which decreases from economic growth) , a junk drawer instead of a cabinet, gives a grim picture. . . going back to 2016, when Mexican tariffs were lifted, the market has a very nice rally. . . So the market can be very volatile, and i welcome good news. . just the backdrop is net very growth friendly.

good luck to us!

pffft

$BIL is 5.0%, its tax efficient, ie, dividends versus bank interest,
and you can buy and sell any day for any amount if needed.

I am feeling very happy, confident and positive about how things are going and looking forward to benefitting from new opportunities when they arise; and they will, they always do.

Completely totally enthusiastically agree. Wish I had a bundle to invest right now....

I'm not sure what position you are on, but I believe if some rational people do not sit down without emotions and egos getting in the way this could go from bad to worst. I spent five years negotiating contracts, I have a copy of the last contract which has 27 signatures 26 were from their side the 27 was mine. Though you expect posturing on both sides at the end you hope that both sides of the table will come to an equitable agreement to protect the people you are there to represent. If either side cannot resolve the issue, then it's time for the people on both sides to reevaluate who is negotiating on their behalf

All the GDP growth over the last 4 years was government deficit spending. GDP is just a measure of total spending and has little to do with producing things. GDP will go down for a while as $2T+/year is removed from Government spending. Real GDP growth (or a better indicator private sector GNI) will rise eventually. Mass import tariffs are going to be disruptive but probably necessary to bring private sector growth to the USA. Things are going to get expensive but better a tax on consumption than a tax on income/production.

Agree.
Many people never negotiated "a deal" and follow the emotion and hype of the media.
Yes there will be swings, Yes there will be losses, but there will be greater gains.
Timing the market "never wins."
:mornincoffee: