PPI Dropped Last Month; Rate Cuts on the Horizon
 

The Federal Reserve is likely to start a series of interest-rate cuts next week and keep going through the end of the year, traders bet on Wednesday after tamer-than-expected producer price inflation last month calmed worries that price pressures would hold the central bank back from policy easing.

Fed seen on course for rate cuts after PPI data

If the cost to produced goods keeps falling, we should see rate cuts. That would be good for everyone!

I doubt it. I'd get my money out of a financial institution in a hurry and invest in real estate. No brainer. Free money, yippee! Why save?

So, you think the rate decrease will be less than.04%?

Rate cut, probably, series of cuts, highly unlikely. .
10 year rate likely to drop? doubtful. .

That's the headline number, under the surface, more signs of inflation. .
I would listen to Ernie Tedeschi before I read anyone at Yahoo finance.

https://x.com/BloombergTV/status/1965851494894186629
https://x.com/ernietedeschi/status/1965757668892573865

Inflation
 

Inflation is down and lowering both here and globally. Japan just posted some great numbers. This whole pandemic problem may finally be in the rear view mirror. More numbers come out here today, and if they look good, we are all off to the races once again!

Interest rates will be cut at least a couple times this year. I know the .04 decrease in treasuries isn’t anything to write home about, but it could be the start to a much larger decline?

Inflation is up again this month. Might want to take that crystal ball in for a tune up.

Down in the PPI, up in the CPI.

Summary.... Stock Futures are up.

If only I paid wholesale prices at WinnDixie and Amazon.

Actually, it’s not even wholesale prices, it is component prices. Plus, if you look into the PPI number you see that the goods portion is up and the services portion is down. Meaning: things will cost more to make and will possibly (likely?) cause prices (CPI) to increase next month as well.

I hope stock trading follows stock futures but we’ll have to see.

way too confident in the data pointing the certain future results . .

First, the federal reserve just prioritized labor markets over inflation.
Second the labor market is showing more weakening. . however, the weekly labor stats are very noisy when there is a holiday in the data. . so the interest rates may be lowered for the labor market, and the inflation may run higher than historical targets. .

Looking under the data for CPI, there are some very large increases, which should be concerning. .

1) Unrounded core is +0.346% so *barely* avoided rounding up

2) Between CPI and PPI it seems that retailers are eating a decent chunk of tariffs for the moment, to avoid big price swings on every whimsical change of tariff rates, and the potential refunds based upon the SC decision on who owns the tariff rate policy. Big refunds could look like price gouging to retailers or retail suppliers.

3) food and energy the major rises, which are cash living expenses as compared to owners equivalent rent (OER)

4) Getting closer to the SS cost of living increase calculation, and if they increase closer to core or PCE, and food/energy going up much faster, our disposable income will go down, slowing growth, not easing labor issues.

5) https://x.com/ISABELNET_SA/status/1960626144056881179

🇺🇸 Inflation

The US ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads US CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends.

US ISM services prices paid is going up . . not looking good for the disinflation scenario. .


good luck to us!

former finance guy

My stocks are up 0.25%. Not exactly worth running to the bank.

Inflation is down? Yeah, and gasoline is $1.98 a gallon.

Good grief

By the way, stay away from windmills, they cause cancer

What time period? The S&P and Nasdaq set record highs todays.

Good for everyone? How many people in TV have a mortgage or borrow money to get something? How many of them like guaranteed 4-5% returns on their money?

Sounds like need new investment firm…..:wave:

Since Thursday morning.

Many indices seem to be up over two days but the S&P and Dow are in the 0.3% range. NASDAQ did better. Up, yes, but not “off to the races.”

Record highs? Sure, those indices closed higher than the day before but isn’t that what we should expect in general? More ups than downs mean highs occur several times per month. Technically, each high is a new record even if only a 0.01% increase. Anyone in the market for the long term is planning on seeing record highs on a regular basis.