Will TV home prices increase dramatically after buildout is complete?
 

In a reply to a post I made a few days ago about my situation probably not allowing me to buy in TV until after the buildout is complete - 4? years from now - one TOTV member stated (I'm paraphrasing here) that TV home prices will increase dramatically once the buildout is complete. If the TV veterans could peer into their crystal prediction balls -- what do you think will happen to TV prices once the buildout is complete, and only resales are available -- resale prices increase at a moderate pace or increase dramatically? Thanks in advance.

hard to tell, but consider . . .
 

Some people only like new, probably especially for their final place. That will no longer be an option here. Also, with 45,000 plus units, or whatever it's going to be, there will always be plenty of resales - that's the nature of a retirement community.

So - I don't really think we'll see dramatic price increases, may actually be more in line with the wider market than it is right now. TV kind of controls the prices by charging what the market will bear on new construction, and resale tags along.

But - I've been wrong before (once or twice :).

I think it will fall to the old "supply and demand" If the baby boomers keep coming the demand will be there and not enough frogs are croaking....the demand will be greater than the supply.
Four years?? we cannot even predict what will happen next month.

IMHO, if the demand for homes in TV doesn't suffer a downturn, home prices will likely increase since there will be no more new builds happening. By how much? It's really anybody's guess. It'll depend on the available supply of resales.

Bill

I don't think even experts can predict what will happen that far into the future. There are just too many variables that affect the market and any predictions that prove acurate would be little more than lucky guesses!

That's my opinion and you're entitled to it! :D

Will TV home prices increase..
 

Will someone please tell me what IMHO means? As to price increases agree with skyguy too many variables. Presently existing home buyers are people with cash who are buying and either renting or flipping....flipping in this market if you can believe it.

In my humble opinion.

:$:

If you look at how The Villages has evolved it may give a hint as to what prices will do. When they first got going in earnest, they were selling around 400 new homes a month and about 75 resale homes each month. Right now it is 250 a month new and 150 a month resale. Now market dynamics has something to do with the changes, but as they get close to build out, the number of new units will drop until eventually it is zero and the resale units will rise until that is probably in the 400 a month range. People who have to have new will go elsewhere and people who have to have TV will buy resale. I would expect when build out is complete that demand will exceed supply by some amount, (more boomers retiring) so prices will increase. But probably not a lot. I would be more concerned about what inflation and interest rate impact will be then the build out.

After build out, will TV be as desirable as it is now? I hope so. I hope it will remain as manicured and clean as we are used to. I hope we have entertainment on all the squares and all the activities offered. Once there are no more new homes to sell maybe the incentives they provided to make us want to buy will go away. If everything remains the same, then there will be less supply, no more new homes, and the demand will be the same, so I would think the price should go up. JMHO

I've heard more than one similar opinion about people going elsewhere when there are no more new homes on the market, but I feel that TV's big sale point is the lifestyle rather than the availability of newly built homes... and not as many will go looking elsewhere as some might expect. Of course, those who must have new as a priority will still have the choice of going to LWL!

Business is business....
 

If I were a developer, why would I stop building at the beginning of the baby boomer generation retiring? Seems to me, I would be buying up all the adjoining land I could find for future development.

No way would I stop at 44, unless I could not buy more land to develop...

Just my thinking.....

Entension of Build-out Date?
 

I first saw TV about fours years ago and I believe the agent told me they would stop building in 2011. Now, it is 2014.

I plan on buying a resale but I was just wondering of the possibilty that new land would be made available and extend the build-out date for future residents?

I was reading the CDD repsonse to the IRS (statement of facts) which is posted on districtgov.org website, in the reponse to the IRS it stated that buildout is now projected to be 2018! See the latest IRS update. Maybe others are right that more land may be purchased.

http://www.districtgov.org/

Here's the direct link to the document - see top of p.3 for the 2018 quote:

http://www.districtgov.org/images/IR...of%20Facts.pdf

I think you might be right, ljones - perhaps more land purchase is yet to happen!

Bill :)