Time to get out of stocks?
 

what do you think?? time to get out of stock market?? March 1st is quickly approaching.

Interesting concept, but if you didn't harvest your gains last year when Cap Gains were assured to be taxed at the lower rate why would you consider triggering gains now just two months later when the market is headed in the right direction?? Mr Obama is looking at the cap gain rate and wants it to increase this could cost you a few more %. What is magic about March 1???

I don't see anything in a 5 year history to warrant getting 'out' of stocks.

The DOW is up about 63% under this administration.

Maybe you are not looking at it right. Every March timeframe for the past few years with exception of the 2008 crash shows a drop in stock until about August, than a rise after. Some even say September drop. Nah. Go ahead and stay in it. Than talk to me after this summer.

Before you get out you have to have a plan that will identify the time to get back in if you are a long term investor.

September

I think if cash keeps flowing into the market from bonds and the retail investor starts getting back in the market in ernest, it's time to get out. There is nothing wrong with siting in cash for a while if it's part of your overall strategy. The bottom line for me is you have to have a plan. Work your plan and plan your work. Don't forget you can hedge your investment with options and other instruments.

Count me as someone who thinks you can't time the market in terms of you get out when their might be a dip in the overall value and get back in when it's at it's lowest. Maybe in 2008 when things weren't going so good at the market took a severe hit but I don't see that happening.

Except for the crash in 2008, some people who got out of the market has missed some of the big gains. The market has been doing exceedingly well. One person on Yahoo predicted a 50% drop in the market but I seriously doubt that's going to happen.

I am confused on why you think March 1st is a special event? Please enlighten me.

In previous times I traded on a regular basis---now just buy good dividend paying stocks and hang in there. Trading often---nope---retired!

Think of the long term. March may be a good time to buy if the market dips. You will never get ahead running with the herd.

No one can beat the market using market timing. Most of those who try lose in the end. You need an investment strategy that lays out what you will do when and be very disciplined with execution.

I use an IPS (investment policy statement) that I wrote several years ago and still follow today. It lays out where all investments are located along with account numbers and passwords, how much of an emergency fund to maintain, How to tax manage, how much risk to allow, what my AA (asset allocation) will be, adjusted for age, what my international and emerging market % of total stock investments should be, when I should re-balance, what duration of bond investments I will use, targets for when to sell and when to buy, and what investment vehicles to use. As long as I follow it, it works. Having this you never have to ask is it a good time to sell or other questions that will cause you to make mistakes. A couple examples.

If the S&P falls by 10% (last 60 day high) I will move 25% of stocks to cash. Falls 20% I will move 50% to cash. I will buy again when it rises by 10% from last 60 day low and again when it rises by 20% from the low.

If stocks rise and my asset allocation shifts by 5%, I sell stocks and buy bonds. Same if stocks fall and I am off 5% in the opposite direction, I will sell bonds and buy stocks to get back to balance with my AA. This always forces you to buy low and sell high.

No budget has been passed yet and "Fiscal cliff" right up ahead I'm out Think I timed it perfectly

>>If the S&P falls by 10% (last 60 day high) I will move 25% of stocks to cash. Falls 20% I will move 50% to cash. I will buy again when it rises by 10% from last 60 day low and again when it rises by 20% from the low. <<

This is a form of market timing. These rules are an algorithm for what is referred to as mechanical timing.

Europe is everyone's concern at this time. They have more debt than we do with no chance of ever paying it down. Both countries just kicking the can down the road. This is what will be the next market killer.