My Opinion
 

Every business has a goal to improve "incremental revenue" each year. That is revenue that was not booked the prior year, (e.g. new business or improvements on old, etc).Reducing costs will not bring in incremental revenue but it will improve profit. So, the
question is what will the Villages do long term, e.g. 5 year plan, etc. Example: I just saw a note in the news that there will be a meeting to discuss "trash collection". That is a flag there may be either increase costs which would be new revenue and good for the Trash Company and bad for the residents or altering the methods of collections (fewer) which would most likely alter the contract with the Trash Co. to benefit the Village Mgt. but add costs to the residents. Does anyone think it is for the benefit of the residents? Now take this action and expand it to Landscaping, maintenance, infrastructures, etc and that should provide some idea of the directions of The Villages. Results: More costs..Less Services.. When you bought here you should have considered this as what will be the future? One of the things that is kinda new to the typical Business Model's is the way the Villages were able to influence the Florida Government to develop laws most favorable to their business, such as being able to pack various
Community development Groups, having Statues that are most favorable to the Developer. WE LOVE THE VILLAGES AND PLAN TO BE FROGS HERE BUT DON'T KID OURSELVES REGARDING THE DIRECTIONS IT WILL GO. :popcorn:

Crystal Ball
 

I love a Realtor with a crystal ball! Sure, I would go with that Realtor, not.

Amen

What we've been told from friends in the business, is prices have remained firm but the actual number of sales is down significantly. This is anecdotal, not a study.

Dear tvbound,

I sold real estate for 41 years, which only means that I sold real estate for 41 years but here are my thoughts: as villagetinker suggested, if you are buying for investment you might wait, but if you are buying for convenience, comfort, the home-of-your dreams, or whatever, then buy when you find the home that trips your trigger the most. (That’s what we did) We bought a floor plan that we loved (our number one consideration because of potential family visits) based on “location, location, location” (near where we knew we would spend most of our time). So we bought based on floor plan and future activities and then completely redid the home to our own personal tastes. We couldn’t be happier.

Oh, and one additional thought: you’ll need two Realtors in order to see all that is available, one from The Villages and then an independent broker. Make sure you are comfortable and trust the two with whom you choose to work. It is more important that you trust your Realtors than it is to like them, but best if you have both trust and like.

Best of luck. A good Realtor will make it fun.

I think it is important to understand that real estate agents work for the seller. When a potential buyer refers to an agent as "our realtor" it is not accurate. Buyers should be wary of seeking advice from real estate agents because they are always going to put a positive spin on the housing market, especially during a difficult time such as this. They are being paid by the seller, not the buyer.

Davem, I commend you. This is off the topic of the initial post but bears mentioning. I see many folks that have more money to live on and play with than others do, so they can think about what they leave their children- it’s not hurting their lifestyles now. Some aren’t in that position. My child is doing better financially than we ever did. Material things and brand names have never been important to my daughter (and her husband), which will ultimately help them when they’re in the stage of life that we’re now in. On the other hand, I see how frugal some people live down here: dinner twofers with quantity rather than quality, picking through the racks of discount retail clothing stores and settling for things they may never have chosen at full retail or even on sale; cocktails are too expensive to order when dining out... they eat wherever they have a coupon for, etc., with more money in the bank or invested to leave the children.

I see my adult child and her husband investing in their future independently. Yet I’ve also known young couples who are relying on their future inheritances to make a large purchase or pay off their own kids’ college loans, for example. If we’ve raised them to be, and they have become responsible adults by now, it’s time to for us live life to its fullest- maybe even be frivolous by allowing ourselves some “wants” rather than needs. We’ve earned it.

IMO, doing without or with less, and living very frugally in order to leave our kids with an inheritance has become antiquated. Just saying...and not selfishly... if you can enjoy the remaining years of life with extra available bucks now, rest assured that our children will make it with or without us. If your kids have been spoiled all their lives, given the best of everything, (buying your 14:year old a Louis Vuitton purse?? ), you’ve done them a disservice from the start...no turning back now! At a time that we should be living, living, living, some are still saving, saving saving... for the kids.

North Villages
 

You specifically want North Villages and its my understanding there has been little change in property value over time. There is reason to think this will continue. - - Check this out with an independent (not Villages) agent, because I cannot be sure. - - I can tell you the market price of my North Villages home has not budged in the four years I've owned it. I can also tell you I paid about what those who owned it before me had paid nine years before. Furthermore, I was told that prices in The Villages did not take much of a hit during 2008 - in other words, this is kind of a "real estate island" where little changes. Perhaps not true of new builds south of 466A. You need a professional opinion specific to the North Villages. Again, speak to an independent agent, not a Village employee who sells real estate here. (They are nice, but they do repeat the company line, which is not always strictly accurate.)

Your choice seems may be a bet on whether the current “opening up” will cause a serious spike in new cases of coronavirus or not.

If the coronavirus situation gets worse we can expect the clamp down on travel and human interaction to be reinstated. That would be bad if you’re selling a house but good if you’re a buyer. But that also depends on whether you can travel here yourself. Being locked down up north or coming here and finding no place to stay while house shopping doesn’t help you.

Right now the curves have not completely flattened. President Trump estimates significant increases in deaths and in the next breath claims he’s done a spectacular job. The governors are a bit better but we shouldn’t forget that they’re all politicians running for re-election.

I’d suggest we should all seek information from reliable sources. Drs. Farci and Brix have become accepted sources of reliable information. The New York Times has begun to publish maybe the best and most understandable charts that I’ve seen. They show both daily numbers of new cases and deaths as well as a moving average. All the numbers are searchable down to the county level. Easy to understand and very accurate. By the way, Marion, Sumter and Lake counties are all well down the list of Florida counties which have had problematic numbers of infections and deaths.

So there you go, it’s a gamble. Personally I don’t think you’d save much money on the purchase of a Villages home by betting on some worst case scenario. That’s particularly true for new homes. The Villages will put sales spiffs on but they’re well-known for not panicking on pricing. Existing homeowners may be less disciplined but the new home prices tend to prop up used home prices as well.

I think if it were me, if I saw a home in a location I liked which checked all the boxes of features you want, I’d jump on it.

Good luck.

sometimes the answer to the question needs to go "off post" and be expanded so that one can step back a little and see the bigger picture and both the intended and unintended consequences

I totally agree...just remember, he who hesitates is stuck choosing from what's left

will it make your wife happy ?
 

First congrats , any retirement community in Florida is better than anywhere else. Second, sounds like you'll have some money- buy it now if it makes your wife happy . The money doesn't matter.

Lastly - if you've sold your old place great - why wait to see what drops or not in value !

good luck and enjoy retirement. no stress needed...

“FROGS”? Just recently moved here and haven’t heard that term but I’m guessing it refers to everyone jumping from house to house?

Frogs are here till they croak

Good advice and will take under advisement.

Thanks.

You've somehow made a large leap in assumptions.

We are living our life exactly as we want and are not "doing without" anything, just to provide a larger inheritance.

It was simply an ancillary comment, about having extra money to play with in the market(s).

I would think June. Many may be holding off on selling their home until November because the prices may come up or that is the time snowbirds come down to buy. You may have more choices. Also a realtor may know of some who are interested in selling but are waiting to put the house on the market.
If someone is listing their home now they will probably take best offer.
I met a couple who put their house up for sale in March. Their house sold immediately at ther first open house.
These houses sell fast so I don't think you will get a big price drop. I would think it would depend on what type of home you are looking to buy.
We just moved here. I don't see anything slowing down. Executive golf courses are full. People out driving their golfcarts all over. People meeting their friends at the squares or a nice shaded area visiting. Bikers & walkers are out. This is an unique area for Seniors. There is always going to be your negative comments but I don't see why homes will drop that much in price. Homes that are over priced because of extras in that home versus the same home without the extras may have to drop prices because most people won't pay for the extras. Unless someone really likes that particular home. Many extras can be outdated or not to their liking.
Bottom line is your priorities.

You must consider the $38,000.00 bond on new homes
I live in Sabel Chase (2nd home) and i love it here.

I agree. I read somewhere that since 1985 property values in The Villages have never gone down. Even during the worse downturns and recessions they held their own. I doubt that we're going to see property values drop in the near future. If they were going tho, they would have by now. What real estate is doing in the rest of the country has very little to do with what prices do here.

It's not just inflation, it's supply and demand. It seems that The Villages cannot keep up with the demand. With the baby boomers coming to retirement age, that's not going to change.

HAHAHA. that's exactly what I thought it meant when I moved here in 2009. Thanks for the chuckle !!:welcome:

I bought my home using a reverse purchase. put about half down and will not have a mortgage payment the rest of my life. the bank does not own the home you do and if you pass your kids get any remaining equity and if the mortgage is under water by the time you pass at 150 year of age it can not go after your estate to get the difference

Seriously? You must have way overpaid
 

Both you and the former seller must have way overpaid.
I had my home built 18 years ago on a championship golf course north of 466. It is now worth 3 times what we paid. Neighbors who have sold, got 3 times plus what they paid, even homes not on the golf course here have increased 3X+ up to 4X their original value, so you are totally miss-stating values in general north of 466.

The Villages sales agents are highly incentivized by the developer to sell new homes instead of resales. Not a criticism, just a fact. Of course they’ll say that preowned homes north of 44 will soon drop.

I just checked Zestimates on homes of friends and family in Idaho, New Mexico and Southern California. They have actually increased in valuations since the beginning of the year. Now those as most of you know are Zillow estimates, for whatever they are worth.

Villages agents are of course largely if not primarily working for the developer to sell new homes. They are there to sell all of the new homes it builds as fast as it can build them. In my experience they may put a spin on things to sell new homes.

i think the best people to answer your question would be from the villages real estate

Some Villages agents are better than others. The agent we used when we moved here was honest about preferring to sell us a new home but was fully supportive of us buying a preowned home. Unfortunately for her, the house we bought was through the MLS and she didn’t make any money from us. We felt bad but she understood.

I’ve heard stories from friends where the agent refused to show them any preowned homes.

get inside the bubble. full of useful information about the villages. did you know in 2008 they sold over 2200 homes and in 2009 over 2100. good to know

I've been a real estate investor so I know a little about the game.

I found what I wanted here both in size and, more importantly, in _location_. And bought it two years before I moved here permanently. I did not rent it out.

I overpaid for it after getting into a bidding war. And while I could be happy just about anyplace in TV, I am 'happier' here.

You've heard of the time value of money? There's also the money value of time.

Borrowing to buy stocks sounds riskier than buying real estate. Be careful. The market is more volatile than at any time in our lifetimes.

Not saying we made money, and that was not my point. Was referring to the quick, inflated appreciation for two years, and how quickly it seems to be deflating. And you are assuming we used a realtor and paid a commission.

My first Villages agent evaded showing me even one preowned home.

With the serious situation in the NE and Midwest and C19 I would think the demand for homes here will do nothing but rise on through the Summer (recession or not). FL is a very desired State for many reasons but we have so far weathered the virus pretty well here. My biggest concern is people coming here from the North to rent in the Summer just to get away from those hard hit areas and then bringing the virus down to us.

I wasn't picking on you. I was pointing out "the big question" commonly gets answered with you won't go wrong with real estate. Then the examples come as to I sold my house for twice what I paid. I put myself as the example this time. I happened to buy my house here in TV Jan 2012. It is now worth more than double. Double in eight years (without counting expenses = many) I consider that a poor investment. Don't lose sight of I purchased at rock bottom of the market and we are at peak and the OP was asking should I buy now. I give myself a failing grade if my purpose was investment. I rented here for five years prior to my 2012 purchase. The problem was the insecurity of not knowing if you could have the same place next season. I didn't have to pay taxes, lawn guy, bug guy, amenities fees, homeowners insurance, utilities, on and on. I negotiated with the landlord and cut one check which most times included a golf cart. Money wise I believe the renting was a better deal - certainly less responsibility. This response I predict will get a lot of static because no one I ever met here in TV has made a bad investment except me.

Since I'm not looking at a new home and I've heard from several people that the sales people for The Villages are encouraged to push the new construction on the other side of the freeway harder than resales, I'm not sure they would be the "best people" to make a guess. I'm pretty sure it would be hard to find a single one of the TV paid salesperson that would suggest I should wait, versus "you need to hurry and buy now."

Unless there's some new construction north of 466A and that's not on the far eastern edge (or next to the old garbage dump), that I'm not aware of.

The person who mentioned in a previous post, about having both a TV salesperson and an independent Realtor to hear the pros and cons of each, seems to make the most sense to me.

"Borrowing" to buy stocks?

Since that is something I would never, ever, ever, even think of doing, I'm a little confused where you got that idea from any of my posts?

One only has to do a bit of reading about the Great Depression, to understand that buying stocks on margin was a big contributor to the market crash.

The obvious volatility of the markets (long before this virus thing), with the potential we are only on a temporary plateau before a significant plunge, is the exact reason I was looking for other's opinions on their guesses as to the best time to buy.

The real Estate Agent works for him/herself
 

Nah, real estate agents work for themselves, for their commission. Being paid by seller is true, but if the difference in commission for the re agent is immaterial to them, they will prefer a quick sale versus the sellers ideal sale, especially if the ideal sale is expected in their mind to take 3-6 months longer.

Freakonomics Chapter 2: How Is the Ku Klux Klan Like a Group of Real-Estate Agents? Summary & Analysis | LitCharts

Summary:
Consider a textbook example of information asymmetry: selling a house. When a person sells a house, there are two major dangers: 1) setting the price too low and 2) setting the price too high. The job of a real estate agent is to find the “golden mean” between 1) and 2). But, as we saw in the Introduction to this book, real estate agents don’t always have their client’s best interests in mind: indeed, their monopoly on information about the real estate market may encourage them to sell a house for too cheap.
As we saw in the Introduction, a real estate agent’s incentives don’t always line up with those of the client. Given what we’ve learned about how experts use fear and ignorance to pressure people into changing their behavior, we can start to understand how real estate agents might convince their clients to sell their houses for a lower price than they’d like.

The authors of the book recall a close friend, “K.” K. wanted to buy a house for 450,000 dollars. K. phoned the seller’s agent and asked the agent to name the lowest price the homeowner might accept. The agent scolded K. for asking such an unethical question. But then, the agent said, “My client is willing to sell this house for a lot less than you might think.” After the conversation, K. offered 425,000 dollars for the house. So because of his own real estate agent’s actions, the seller of the house lost 20,000 dollars. Meanwhile, the agent himself lost only 300 dollars (his “cut” of the commission on the house).

Worked with too many sales people with too many incentive plans to modify sales rep behavior to believe that sales agents work for a company or a person. I have seen more than one sales rep hold their big deal as hostage for better commission rates, and other questionable behaviors, such as using the approach, "Danny, if you believe it, its not a lie!"

great theory, not in practice.

sportsguy's experience

The center of the villages is moving. In the not to distant future Fenney will be the center of the villages
Many have said they will not move but the average villager moves three times
Your right you need to buy where your comfortable

Price increase
 

Of course no one can predict the future, but I'm betting that prices are going up! A home near us was listed for $275K more than the selling price a year ago. Golf Course view and pool. It is now pending, but don't know the actual price. The house next door listed for ~$225 more than it sold for 1 year ago. Golf course view but no pool (has room). Both properties had a very significant increase...got my attention!

Take a look at this Wall Street Journal article. It addresses your question pretty well. I hope you can read it without a subscription.

Why Home Prices Are Rising During the Pandemic - WSJ