Talk of The Villages Florida

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-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   Decision time, retire or don't retire that is the question. (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/decision-time-retire-dont-retire-question-318967/)

dewilson58 04-27-2021 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gulfcoast (Post 1936203)
But, who knows, maybe in retirement I'll discover naps, too.

Discovered & Perfected by many in retirement.

tophcfa 04-27-2021 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 1935977)
No afternoon nap??? Sometimes, somehow that gets injected into my busy schedule.

I simply can not sleep during the day, not sure why. Perhaps because I am not a dew pusher. That being said, I had one of the first afternoon naps of my life recently, the day after my second Covid shot I was absolutely exhausted all day long. Must have watched 4 movies, snoozing in and out all day. I spent more time in the recliner that day than the last 1/2 year in total.

Laker14 04-27-2021 07:10 PM

For what it's worth, my recommendation is to try to evaluate what you want, and remove money from the equation. I am assuming your money guy knows what he's talking about. So, remove money from the equation and think about what you want to spend your time on. If you don't have a strong pull towards a life of "leisure", vs the life you have now, I'd suggest not retiring. Why fix what ain't broke? In a year, or two years, or a month, you may feel differently. Whey you do feel differently, then act.

Craig Vernon 04-28-2021 06:00 AM

Great comments. Thanks to all who gave their input! Craig

CoachKandSportsguy 04-28-2021 06:05 AM

At 63, and owning in TV with the house paid off, but living in Snow England I have no more desire to work, I am expecting a @tophcfa lifestyle and am having motivational issues at work for a corporate boss. . . . very seriously, I am hoping to get laid off every day. . . . and its all due to this web page reading about all the gloriously warm days of golf and activities. . .

Golf only on weekends is not enough, driving range only at 6PM or later messes with dinner plans. Living an hour from soccer vs walking to field in 5 minutes in TV is too depressing, but healthcare is an issue for us for the moment.

So to the original poster's question: Take the package, move to the villages and rent, find employment which should be easy, look for the home you want, and split time between work and the villages activities offerings. . . in a hot house market, you should be able to relocate in FL without much expense friction.

sportsguy

Boston-Sean 04-28-2021 01:35 PM

My one and only worry about retiring early is running out of money in my 80's/90's.

Having grown up dirt poor I'm pretty sensitive about going back to being dirt poor again.

Maybe I missed them but I haven't seen any posts from people in their 80's/90's advocating for retiring early.

Obviously there are no guarantees that any long term financial plan will play out as expected but for sure I know that the best way to ensure you don't run out of money in retirement is to keep working and delay the day when you start drawing down your nest egg.

karostay 04-28-2021 02:57 PM

Earlier the better time fly's don't hesitate

Gulfcoast 04-28-2021 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boston-Sean (Post 1936694)
My one and only worry about retiring early is running out of money in my 80's/90's.

Having grown up dirt poor I'm pretty sensitive about going back to being dirt poor again.

Maybe I missed them but I haven't seen any posts from people in their 80's/90's advocating for retiring early.

Obviously there are no guarantees that any long term financial plan will play out as expected but for sure I know that the best way to ensure you don't run out of money in retirement is to keep working and delay the day when you start drawing down your nest egg.

If Craig's financial guy says that he is good until he is 94 but wishes to plan until he's 100, he probably can do that without working. He would simply adjust his spending accordingly.

I'm not sure how much Craig's current home will sell for, but if he downsizes into a smaller/less expensive home in TV and pays it off, he could use the remaining proceeds from the sale of his home to help bridge the gap between 55 and 65, too. That, of course, assumes that he has significant equity in his current home and that his current home is significantly more expensive than the home in TV will be.

tghoul 04-28-2021 04:09 PM

I retired at age 51, it has been a great 23 years so far.

Laker14 04-28-2021 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tghoul (Post 1936733)
I retired at age 51, it has been a great 23 years so far.

Yeah, Baby! I'm with you. Unfortunately for me, I couldn't, but would have loved to. But, what's good for you and me, isn't necessarily right for everyone. We all have to find our own answers to this question.

I had a customer (patient) who by the time he retired was too damaged physically to do the things he'd envisioned. Six months after I retired I got up in the middle of the night to drain the bladder, and suddenly, out of nowhere, felt a pain in my right thigh like a flaming arrow to the bone. I was down on the floor, and one of the thoughts I had was "I don't want to be like (that guy). I'm OK now, living my retirement dream and all, but ...I was pretty scared.

We make the decision to continue working, or to retire, often while we feel young and frisky. Most of us worry so much about running out of money that we cut ourselves short on the good years. But man, it's hard to cut that cord. Really hard.

tvbound 04-28-2021 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig Vernon (Post 1934831)
Ready for our month of May visit and there is much on the agenda. Financial guy says we have enough to live at same level until 94 years of age. I turn 55 in September. Not sure I am ready to stop working but a change certainly wouldn't hurt my feelings. Bring on your wisdom and relatable points of view.

A great question, with no real definitive answer(s), given that everyone's situation is different and none of us know how long we will live a 'quality' life. We've all heard of the person who passes away shortly after retiring, which is offset by those who could easily retire, but don't because they feel their life is defined by their work and career. While we are fortunate that finances aren't an issue, I still tended to fall in the latter category. Lo and behold, even after being retired a couple of years now, my old company didn't fold without me - the jerks. lol Now, even before moving to TV, I can't imagine how I even had enough time to work previously.

Mamaderby 04-28-2021 08:33 PM

As soon as you can afford it....do it! Life is too short!

Craig Vernon 04-29-2021 06:03 AM

Thanks, I have caught up on all the comments. Sitting here this morning at my work from home office and getting ready to go out in the field for the day. Hope you all have a great one.

Luv2Bretired 04-29-2021 10:14 AM

One huge factor to consider is the confiscatory taxes we will soon face. I am anxiously awaiting the final legislative outcome as it will definitely affect how I proceed.

Tmarkwald 04-29-2021 10:39 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Luv2Bretired (Post 1937070)
One huge factor to consider is the confiscatory taxes we will soon face. I am anxiously awaiting the final legislative outcome as it will definitely affect how I proceed.

I understand what you mean, but that should not deter a move to TV. In the unlikely event that even happens it will affect so few people here as to be a non-issue.... And, as a word of advice, don't post any of the news articles referencing this as the moderator will ping you for it as being political.

Boomer 04-29-2021 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tmarkwald (Post 1937080)
I understand what you mean, but that should not deter a move to TV. In the unlikely event that even happens it will affect so few people here as to be a non-issue.... And, as a word of advice, don't post any of the news articles referencing this as the moderator will ping you for it as being political.

Thank you, Tmarkwald, for trying to fend off the political bent that tries to infiltrate TOTV wherever an opportunity is perceived for veiled, albeit transparent, messaging.

I am enjoying this discussion and was just thinking about adding to it again, but I do not want to waste my time if the thread comes under siege and ends up getting shut down.

Anyway, thanks for trying.

Boomer

Gulfcoast 04-29-2021 12:56 PM

The economic uncertainty these days actually tends to bolster the idea of getting yourself as best situated as possible to weather any coming storm. A paid off house in TV with lots of friendly people nearby sounds like a pretty good bet to me.

Luv2Bretired 04-29-2021 02:05 PM

n
Quote:

Originally Posted by Gulfcoast (Post 1937130)
The economic uncertainty these days actually tends to bolster the idea of getting yourself as best situated as possible to weather any coming storm. A paid off house in TV with lots of friendly people nearby sounds like a pretty good bet to me.

Yes. Inflation is again upon us going by substantial increases in the cost of gasoline, lumber and beef.

JerryLBell 04-29-2021 07:11 PM

My wife and I had separate finance guys and both strongly recommended the "paychecks and play checks" approach to retiring. That means having enough fixed income each month to cover all your basic bills, with fixed income meaning pensions (and who offers those anymore), Social Security and annuities (which some folks love and some folks loathe). Leave your remaining investments for the "fun" stuff like travel, hobbies, entertainment, etc. We retired at 62 and our pensions and Medicare wouldn't kick in until we hit 65 and our Social Security wouldn't kick in until we hit 66 so we had 3-5 years of living off savings and investments and we found that pretty uncomfortable. Now that we're on the other side of that, we feel extremely comfortable.

Other folks have mentioned the cost of health insurance and they are absolutely right. That stuff is expensive and you cannot live without it. Individual plans can run a thousand or more per person per month pretty easily. That alone will keep many folks working and getting employer-provided insurance.

Ideally, you should be able to buy your retirement house with cash and not have a mortgage. Having to pay a mortgage for a bunch more years while having a fixed and somewhat more limited income can be a real pain. If you haven't paid off your current house (assuming you own one), try paying that off before you retire even if it means working a couple more years and doubling or tripling your mortgage payments.

Other than finances, think about what you want out of retirement. Is it hanging with friends with similar interests? Being a decade younger than most folks here can make you somewhat socially isolated. My niece retired quite early and managed to make new friends through her many, many sports activities but I've heard of some folks who felt very disconnected from other retirees. And even if you live fairly locally already, you won't be hanging with your current friends who are still working. They just won't have the time you do. And, to be honest, some folks simply do not have interests outside of work and are bored to death in retirement (my brother was one). Most of us here in The Villages just love to play all the time, so moving to this Disneyland for Senior Citizens is the coolest thing ever.

Good luck with your decision! It's one of the biggest ones you'll ever make!

Luv2Bretired 04-30-2021 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tmarkwald (Post 1937080)
I understand what you mean, but that should not deter a move to TV. In the unlikely event that even happens it will affect so few people here as to be a non-issue.... And, as a word of advice, don't post any of the news articles referencing this as the moderator will ping you for it as being political.

Thank you for the advice.


My prior post was not directed to what some financially well off current villagers may face tax-wise from assets sold at seven figure gains on an ongoing basis. My post was directed at prospective retirees, likely small business people who have planned to sell their businesses valued say from one to five million dollars and after paying 20% federal capital gains tax plus whatever state income tax might be applicable retire and live off the proceeds until age 94 or 100. It would be a once in a lifetime sale situation. They shall now need to recalculate their plans if LTCG taxes are grossly increased. My post was a heads up to these people and based on their need to face a new reality.

lindaelane 05-01-2021 08:26 AM

As a mathematics professional I can tell you that what your financial advisor did - what a certified FINRA advisor would do - is something called a "Monte Carlo simulation" in which thousands of scenarios and predictions based on past performance are played out. He/she then let you know that "there is 95 percent probability that your savings will last until you are 94 years old".

This is based on how the market has behaved in the past.

What you need to beware of is something called "sequence of return risks". If the market takes a big downturn early in your retirement, then you will very likely be in the "5 percent chance of failure" I believe your advisor will have mentioned at some point

Financial advisors who do Monte Carlo simulations are those who stress "equities and bonds". But I believe you need a more balanced portfolio than the equities and bonds your advisor wants to put you into. There are annuities - - Yes, there are definitely good ones despite fees - they are difficult to find but will worth it when found. There is real estate which will almost surely keep up with inflation in the long run (even group real estate investing if you fear to be a landlord). Precious metals could be a hedge.

So one bottom line is I believe it is very, very important to diversify beyond equities (stocks/ETFs/mutual funds) and bonds if you want a financially secure retirement for the next 40 years or so, no matter what this advisor said. He gets a commission for what you put in stocks and bonds, not for what you put in real estate, annuities, etc.

I have a financial advisor at Wells Fargo who takes a different point of view from "balanced portfolio of bonds and equities" - He has me in funds that use covered call hedging strategies. Only 10 percent of my portfolio is with him but it has been a great investment. (30% portfolio in my home, 30% in an index annuity and I personally invest the rest of my portfolio.)

Lots of financial professionals - certainly not all - believe we are in for another 'lost decade" (like the 2000s) where you have little more at the end of the decade than you did at the beginning. If your advisor is assuming you can withdraw four percent each year, think what that could do to your portfolio and your future returns. (Only about once every 20 years or less, i.e., about five percent of the time, are we on the verge of a lost decade, but this could be it.)

So...I think this "95% chance of success" might hold true at an "average time" but we are in a "risky time". Just my opinions. Google "sequence of return risk" to learn more.

Then...there is inflation. Your financial advisors software did not have the possibility of strong inflation built into the prediction (the software that made the prediction is not set up for that) and it is possible (not certain) your retirement could be spoiled by inflation, depending on how your investments perform if we get a high inflation scenario.

Last, these Monte Carlo simulations are based on the idea you eventually withdraw all funds and "go broke" at the end - so they are saying there is a 95 percent chance you do not go broke until age 94 when you are likely going to be broke if you live that long. If you live to 94, do you really want to be broke? Do you know how horrible Medicaid nursing homes are and how expensive non-Medicaid nursing homes are?

As for retiring at 55, I did at 60 and I'm very happy. But my hobby of traveling beings me great joy. If you have nothing to bring you a lot of joy for 39 years (until 94), maybe you should stay with your career longer, and earn finances for an even more secure retirement.

PS - Do not let a financial advisor talk you into taking out a mortgage because "you will earn more than the 3 percent your mortgage charges by putting it in investments" (They want you to forget that did not happen in the 2000s). You need an investment that is secure from the possibility of extreme market fluctuation, and essentially, the money in your home "earns" the 3 percent annually you do not pay to a mortgage company. Some of your portfolio must be "low risk/low return" to have a good chance of a financially secure retirement. (And...bonds have been terrible for something like 20 years now. I cannot understand why financial advisors use them but that's just me. There are other "lower risk/lower return" investments that don't require you do invest in bonds....though you should probably have some in bonds just for the sake of diversity...but I do not think it should be a lot.)


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