Talk of The Villages Florida

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-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   Evacuating FLA?? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/evacuating-fla-321234/)

Villageswimmer 07-03-2021 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuccillo (Post 1968005)
If you don't like the post then don't read it. I have given current information. You just need to read the posts. And, yes, I am a meteorologist. Undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a research scientist at NASA and the National Weather Service, where I developed numerical weather prediction computer models on supercomputers for research and operational forecasting.

I do try to provide some useful information when things get interesting. However, most of what you need to know you can obtain by watching the news.

You shouldn’t have to defend yourself. You’re the most knowledgeable and intelligent person on this thread. Thank you for sharing your expertise.

And you retain your dignity and don’t stoop so low as to call people names.

tvbound 07-03-2021 06:17 PM

Of all the places to be when a hurricane hits Florida, I would think that with The Villages being pretty much in the middle of the state and knowing how quickly they dissipate over land, it would be one of the safer places. I also recall reading something back when we were researching where to fully retire, that Jacksonville FL. hasn't had a direct hit in a very long time. I recall it because it seemed that being on the coast it would be vulnerable, but apparently there's something kind of unique regarding where it is located. I think it was about 15 or so years ago that I read that, because I believe in the same article it mentioned that just south of there (Daytona Beach area?) did get hit pretty hard from one that barrelled in straight from the east.

JMintzer 07-03-2021 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travelingal702 (Post 1967782)
Oh Oh, time to run out and stock up on water, bread and toilet paper

You forgot milk... Or is that only for when it snows? :icon_wink:

tuccillo 07-03-2021 08:35 PM

Yes, Jacksonville is in a pretty good location. The coastline bends westward and results in Jacksonville having the same longitude as eastern Ohio. Hurricanes are typically moving north around that latitude so it is difficult to get one in there. Not impossible, however. I seem to recall a cat1 getting in there 10 or 15 years ago, or so. I have wondered if the Navy chose that area for the Kings Bay sub base because of the protected nature of the coastline.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tvbound (Post 1968165)
Of all the places to be when a hurricane hits Florida, I would think that with The Villages being pretty much in the middle of the state and knowing how quickly they dissipate over land, it would be one of the safer places. I also recall reading something back when we were researching where to fully retire, that Jacksonville FL. hasn't had a direct hit in a very long time. I recall it because it seemed that being on the coast it would be vulnerable, but apparently there's something kind of unique regarding where it is located. I think it was about 15 or so years ago that I read that, because I believe in the same article it mentioned that just south of there (Daytona Beach area?) did get hit pretty hard from one that barrelled in straight from the east.


OrangeBlossomBaby 07-03-2021 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CFrance (Post 1967723)
How can you just assume he's a moron because he's bicycling with a mask on? I bet he doesn't get any dragonflies in his mouth!

Or maybe he spent much of the last year wearing one and works in a job where he's still required to wear one, and he's just so used to wearing it he's like "screw it" and doesn't bother taking it off til he gets home.

Or he could be a complete absolute genius, but thinks it's a kick to make people think he's a moron by wearing a mask while he rides his bike. He's probably just laughing at the people making the snide remarks.

EdFNJ 07-03-2021 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davephan (Post 1967790)
We also keep about 20 cases of water, about 12 cases of paper towels, and about 12 cases of toilet paper.

If you need to keep so much toilet paper you definitely need to change your eating habits! :1rotfl: I don't think we use 12 cases in a year!

Jean G 07-03-2021 09:28 PM

Haha! New to FL is my guess. This one is a big nothing-burger.

tuccillo 07-03-2021 10:44 PM

11PM Update from Miami
 
There is not much change in the forecasted track and it is likely to stay at tropical storm intensity. Miami has it hitting FL around Tampa, or a bit north of Tampa, on Tuesday evening and then moving to the northeast. That would put the center of the circulation north of us as it moves towards the SE Georgia coast. The GFS suggests 2-4 inches of rain for us and gusty winds.

rogerk 07-03-2021 10:47 PM

Lived in The Villages, which is in Florida the last time I checked, for over 20 years. We have never had an evacuation order or even advised to evacuate. Our part of the state is the safe haven people on the coast evacuate to.

Be careful reading general information provided by even the State. It doesn’t usually apply to the entire state of Florida.

skippy05 07-04-2021 05:51 AM

There are tens of thousands of OLD mobile homes built in 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s that have survived every single "hurricane" that has come to the Central Florida route in all these years. Why wouldn't your friend's block-built or stick-built home in the Villages fare just as well as those? The truth is "hurricanes" that make it to Central Florida are a bunch of hype and worry about nothing. Just take a tour of the abundant 55 and over mobile home parks in Eustis, Tavares, Mount Dora, Leesburg and see for yourself. How is it that all these old things were not blown off the map years ago if these Central Florida "hurricanes" are so dangerous? Answer: They are not.

golfing eagles 07-04-2021 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy05 (Post 1968243)
Tell your friends a better idea than evacuating Florida is maybe to simply rent out one of tens of thousands of mobile homes in any of the 55 age restricted mobile home parks in Central Florida to use as a storm shelter. There are tens of thousands of them built in 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s which have survived every single hurricane that has come the Central Florida route in all these years. Think deeply about the fact that all those are still standing and wonder 'why' and 'how' it is possible that all those still stand today...unscratched and unscathed.

Really??? Well, if it's just the same to you, I'll stay in my newly constructed to structurally survive cat 3 winds home and you can stay in a trailer when a hurricane comes through here. Good luck with that!

NoMoSno 07-04-2021 06:47 AM

Thankfully it's on a path that will not greatly hamper rescue efforts going on in Miami.

davephan 07-04-2021 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 1967941)
You think you have enough tp?

Yes! We have plenty of toilet paper, paper towels, and drinking water. Several months ago, there was a “run” on toilet paper. The prices were jacked up on those items. At the time, I didn’t keep much toilet paper in stock. Once I get “burned”, I never get “burned” again. I don’t believe in living “hand to mouth”. Some people only have a burned out light bulb in their refrigerator!

We ordered a whole house generator in January, and are still waiting for the installation. There’s a backlog on those types of items.

Before moving to Florida in December, I’d watch crowds of people buying water, flashings, gasoline, food, and other supplies at the last minute. Those people live “hand to mouth” and they live their lives being unprepared.

When my gas tank reaches half full, I fill up the tank. I’ve been doing that since high school for over 50 years, when I first started driving. I’ve never run out of gas, except with the test drive of my first car that I bought. During the test drive, the car ran out of gas right in front of a gas station that was next door to the used car dealer. Over the years, I’ve seen many fools that run out of gas. Those fools always wait till their gas tank is empty before they think about filling it up to half full.

tvbound 07-04-2021 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuccillo (Post 1968197)
Yes, Jacksonville is in a pretty good location. The coastline bends westward and results in Jacksonville having the same longitude as eastern Ohio. Hurricanes are typically moving north around that latitude so it is difficult to get one in there. Not impossible, however. I seem to recall a cat1 getting in there 10 or 15 years ago, or so. I have wondered if the Navy chose that area for the Kings Bay sub base because of the protected nature of the coastline.

As I recall, that was part of the explanation on why they have seemed to dodge any direct hits.

vintageogauge 07-04-2021 07:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davephan (Post 1968316)
Yes! We have plenty of toilet paper, paper towels, and drinking water. Several months ago, there was a “run” on toilet paper. The prices were jacked up on those items. At the time, I didn’t keep much toilet paper in stock. Once I get “burned”, I never get “burned” again. I don’t believe in living “hand to mouth”. Some people only have a burned out light bulb in their refrigerator!

We ordered a whole house generator in January, and are still waiting for the installation. There’s a backlog on those types of items.

Before moving to Florida in December, I’d watch crowds of people buying water, flashings, gasoline, food, and other supplies at the last minute. Those people live “hand to mouth” and they live their lives being unprepared.

When my gas tank reaches half full, I fill up the tank. I’ve been doing that since high school for over 50 years, when I first started driving. I’ve never run out of gas, except with the test drive of my first car that I bought. During the test drive, the car ran out of gas right in front of a gas station that was next door to the used car dealer. Over the years, I’ve seen many fools that run out of gas. Those fools always wait till their gas tank is empty before they think about filling it up to half full.

Maybe those "FOOLS" couldn't afford to keep their tanks half full, may someone else was driving the cars that belonged to those "FOOLS" and ran their tank low, maybe those "FOOLS" had a broken gas gauge and couldn't afford to fix it. No reason to call anyone a fool that had the misfortune to run out of gas.

CoachKandSportsguy 07-04-2021 07:54 AM

Hilton Head SC had that same rumor when we visited. Went kayaking and the local guide spun the same story as a pseudo expert on the area pontificating to tourists in rentals. I replied that HH only hasn't been hit yet, and HH took a near direct hit the next month.

Its an historical statistic that really means nothing about the future.

golfing eagles 07-04-2021 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintageogauge (Post 1968330)
Maybe those "FOOLS" couldn't afford to keep their tanks half full, may someone else was driving the cars that belonged to those "FOOLS" and ran their tank low, maybe those "FOOLS" had a broken gas gauge and couldn't afford to fix it. No reason to call anyone a fool that had the misfortune to run out of gas.

And maybe those "FOOLS" didn't want to add to a panic and double the length of the gas line unnecessarily, and maybe those "FOOLS" didn't want to hoard toilet paper and paper towels so as to deprive others while they had hundreds of rolls in their garage, and maybe those "FOOLS" won't be hoarding water, batteries and canned goods as the hurricane approaches. But it's nice to know there are still people with the "me first" attitude:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:. Makes you wonder who the bigger "FOOL" is:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

CoachKandSportsguy 07-04-2021 08:00 AM

tuccillo,

ever run into Joe Sienkoweitz, masters in meteorology studying hurricanes, and worked at NOAA in south FL and Washington DC?

sportsguy

JMintzer 07-04-2021 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1968246)
Really??? Well, if it's just the same to you, I'll stay in my newly constructed to structurally survive cat 3 winds home and you can stay in a trailer when a hurricane comes through here. Good luck with that!

https://www.meme-arsenal.com/memes/d...4f13cc0e4a.jpg

davephan 07-04-2021 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintageogauge (Post 1968330)
Maybe those "FOOLS" couldn't afford to keep their tanks half full, may someone else was driving the cars that belonged to those "FOOLS" and ran their tank low, maybe those "FOOLS" had a broken gas gauge and couldn't afford to fix it. No reason to call anyone a fool that had the misfortune to run out of gas.

If they can’t afford to fill their gas tank, then they need to be responsible people and work longer and harder to earn enough money to live their lives in a responsible manner. If you’re gas gauge is broken, you use your trip odometer, and reset the trip odometer every time you fill up your tank. I’ve been resetting my trip odometer every time I fill my gas tank for at least 40 years. It gives you a redundant means of knowing how much fuel you have.

One time, I tried to help one of those fools on the shoulder of a freeway, that ran out of gas. I could have gotten myself killed doing that for a fool. I never did that again.

During the period of time decades ago, when the gasoline prices rose from 50 cents a gallon to a dollar a gallon, there were pilots of single engine airplanes that ended up running out of fuel. They landed their aircraft on the freeways in the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. The FAA changed the rules for pilots. If they have to land on a road because they ran out of fuel, then they lose their pilots license permanently. Shortly after the rules were changed, the pilots of the single engine planes stopped landing on the freeways because they ran out of fuel. The risk of losing their pilots license permanently caused a change in those pilots behavior, and they no longer had to land away from an airport, due to running out of fuel.

golfing eagles 07-04-2021 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davephan (Post 1968349)
If they can’t afford to fill their gas tank, then they need to be responsible people and work longer and harder to earn enough money to live their lives in a responsible manner.

One time, I tried to help one of those fools on the shoulder of a freeway, that ran out of gas. I could have gotten myself killed doing that for a fool. I never did that again.

During the period of time decades ago, when the gasoline prices rose from 50 cents a gallon to a dollar a gallon, there were pilots of single engine airplanes that ended up running out of fuel. They landed their aircraft on the freeways in the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. The FAA changed the rules for pilots. If they have to land on a road because they ran out of fuel, then they lose their pilots license permanently. Shortly after the rules were changed, the pilots of the single engine planes stopped landing on the freeways because they ran out of fuel. The risk of losing their pilots license permanently caused a change in those pilots behavior, and they no longer had to land away from an airport, due to running out of fuel.

So is your suggestion that anyone who has to call for road service due to an empty tank lose their driver's license permanently?????

davephan 07-04-2021 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1968350)
So is your suggestion that anyone who has to call for road service due to an empty tank lose their driver's license permanently?????

No, I’m not suggesting that people that run out of gasoline on the roads lose their driver’s license permanently. But that rule makes sense for private pilots.

However, I think it would be reasonable for people that run out of fuel in their cars be ticketed by the police. People that are irresponsible and run out of gas on the shoulders of the roads put other drivers on the roads at additional risks.

golfing eagles 07-04-2021 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davephan (Post 1968393)
No, I’m not suggesting that people that run out of gasoline on the roads lose their driver’s license permanently. But that rule makes sense for private pilots.

However, I think it would be reasonable for people that run out of fuel in their cars be ticketed by the police. People that are irresponsible and run out of gas on the shoulders of the roads put other drivers on the roads at additional risks.

Sounds very reasonable. But you KNOW there are those that are going to post that that is regressive taxation, oppression of the lower economic classes and I'm sure there's at least one who will call it racist.:ohdear::ohdear::ohdear:

Stu from NYC 07-04-2021 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1968396)
Sounds very reasonable. But you KNOW there are those that are going to post that that is regressive taxation, oppression of the lower economic classes and I'm sure there's at least one who will call it racist.:ohdear::ohdear::ohdear:

Just one???

golfing eagles 07-04-2021 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 1968405)
Just one???

Well, 1 for sure, 7 or 8 possible

tuccillo 07-04-2021 10:00 AM

No, I don't know him. I have been gone for some time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 1968339)
tuccillo,

ever run into Joe Sienkoweitz, masters in meteorology studying hurricanes, and worked at NOAA in south FL and Washington DC?

sportsguy


fishon 07-04-2021 03:32 PM

If you run away, where will you get your Delta jab?
Or your Epsilon?
Ad infinity jab?

asianthree 07-04-2021 03:57 PM

This tread really jumped the shark fro evacuating FL

Stu from NYC 07-04-2021 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asianthree (Post 1968538)
This tread really jumped the shark fro evacuating FL

All that needed to be said about evacuation was said so it moved into more interesting stuff.

Papa_lecki 07-04-2021 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asianthree (Post 1968538)
This tread really jumped the shark fro evacuating FL

It’s safe to say, somewhere around 90 to 125 posts on a thread and the thread spins off the tracks.
Admins should lock any thread once it hits 100 - at some point, the original question is answered

CFrance 07-04-2021 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 1967938)
What about the guy driving in his car with his mask on? Will he give himself the virus?

I've done that, from sheer laziness. Going from Lowe's to Aldi's to Walgreens, all on 466A. You just don't know why that guy has his mask on. Maybe somebody farted in his car.

Happinow 07-04-2021 08:27 PM

No hype weather info…….
 
You all……please tune in every morning to watch meteorologist Eric Burris at 8:00 on his Facebook page. He tells it like it is, NO HYPE. You will get the most accurate info. He also gives updates as needed. Make your plans from there.

JMintzer 07-05-2021 06:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CFrance (Post 1968610)
I've done that, from sheer laziness. Going from Lowe's to Aldi's to Walgreens, all on 466A. You just don't know why that guy has his mask on. Maybe somebody farted in his car.

A mask won't keep that out!

Don't ask me how I know...

CFrance 07-05-2021 07:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMintzer (Post 1968676)
A mask won't keep that out!

Don't ask me how I know...

:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Tom359 07-06-2021 02:05 PM

Lived through Hurricane Andrew when we were in Miami. My rule of thumb is that anything CAT 3 or above gets my attention. CAT 1 and 2 are just "be prepared to be without power for a few days", anything higher can be significantly different. Tropical Storm or CAT 1 don't even get my attention.

patfla06 07-06-2021 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom359 (Post 1969241)
Lived through Hurricane Andrew when we were in Miami. My rule of thumb is that anything CAT 3 or above gets my attention. CAT 1 and 2 are just "be prepared to be without power for a few days", anything higher can be significantly different. Tropical Storm or CAT 1 don't even get my attention.

Exactly!
I’ve lived in Florida 24 years (17 in Tampa) and I’m storm weary. :ohdear:

Tim C. 07-07-2021 06:35 AM

just rain....for those who evacuated...panic much? :)

billethkid 07-07-2021 08:01 AM

We know the media loves a captive audience and they use fear as an attraction or retainer.

They are very adept at making a banquet out of a ham sandwich!!

skip0358 07-07-2021 09:06 AM

Why in the devil would you even think of evacuating Florida especially from a tropical storm. MAYBE relocate inland IF you were on the coast and the Mother storm was coming. Geez take a step back and relax.

davem4616 07-07-2021 10:21 AM

most of the homes in TV are safe to hunker down in during a hurricane, exception being the modular homes in the historic section

in 2017 we hunkered down here when TV took a direct hit with a hurricane...we had absolutely no damage...our home is block construction, not stick...but even the stick homes held up. The design of the roofs is critical, the developer got it right

back in 2008 we hunkered down during a Cat 5 direct hit from Wilma when we were in Ft Lauderdale, no damage (again in a block house construction)

if you're uncomfortable staying after listening to the Weather Channel on the television then seek higher ground that is away from the projected path....I do sense that the Weather Channel has become far too dramatic over the years and has a tendency to scare the heck out of people.

best job in the world is being a weather forecaster....if you're wrong and the storm misses, you get a pass,...if you nailed it and you get hit, everybody thinks you're great and says thanks. it's a win/win


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