Speaking of the cement factory.......Hubby and I took a drive down south for a look see. OMG......the cement factory looms over some of the homes. What an awful awful view.

It doesn’t mean the facility won’t eventually move farther south, as buildings in the general area will be completed.

Move a Cement Factory?
 

Why would they do that? How could it be moved? You are likely talking in millions of tons of weight. Ash Grove Cement is the sixth largest cement plant in the country. Besides, even if it was attempted, there still lies the adjacent Coleman Federal Prison which will never close and is of course located on federally owned government land.

People with too much money
 

There is not a glut of new homes, there is a lot of too many people with too much money.

The villages is a great place but you paying 300% more per square foot than many other established communities.
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Homes in established villages are only 200% more per square foot than other communities and yet someone always wants new. I can tell you from experience it doesn't cost $300,000 more to get a new kitchen and new floor coverings and repaint.

A fool and his money are soon parted. And Florida will have its ups and downs, the cycle goes on and on

So true. We have a 3/2 corner lot veranda and it’s been on the market for four months. Little interest. Gutters, lanai shades, updated landscape, three car garage, water softener etc. the issue is the developer has these half million dollar fixer uppers for a seemingly bargain but aren’t when you factor in all the improvements

Inventory Explosion
 

We are undergoing an inventory explosion like the Villages has never, ever seen. There isn’t any good news on that front until at least early March for now. Lending rates are staying the same and insurance is only going up. We will likely see many homes at 75 days on market and a lot more sold homes will have actual pricing at 200 per square foot. Indicators of all this are the actual numbers which are still climbing. Zillow, real estate.com and others all paint the same picture on inventory. An MLS with nearly a thousand homes and the scaling back of new construction are staring boldly at all of us.

There is a possible amelioration? Labor tightening because of deportations could come into play? It is still too early to know that though. Perhaps a ray of sunshine shine on the market after the Fed meeting in mid March?

Now is neither the time to sell or buy. The market is saturated and prices haven’t decreased enough. If I was a buyer, I would focus on the trending reaction after the Fed meeting in March.

I dont think any home in the village is worth what they are charging. They create a frenzy and people follow. there are plenty of homes for sale dont fall for the frenzy. For me I would buy outside the village with some land and more south its warmer.

Lock in Effect
 

Your choice. An interesting phenomenon in all real estate markets right now is the lock-in effect. People who were reluctant to sell or move because of their existing low mortgage rate are finally starting to sell. The pandemic is over.

Most of the north especially homes north of 466 have their bonds paid off.

You're right, purchased 10 years ago and the value has more than doubled.

Oh wait, nevermind.

Guest
 

If you look back historically, IMO, hasn't that always been the investor’s goal?

Goal, absolutely. My goal is to win a $500M lottery. Reasonable expectation?

My home sold to me with an increase of about 40% over 36 months. According to Zillo it has increased another 60% over the last 72 months. 100% over 24 months seems unrealistic.

Not Fast Cash, but reasonable
 

Certainly not the fast cash some try to achieve, but reasonable just like a 10 year bond. Maybe just a little more risk and maintenance though.

No fast cash for me.....................my children will get it and whatever value there be, unless I need money for bail.

Sale of new homes in The Villages by year
Year Homes Sold (Home and Lot) Average Sale Price
1986 511 *
1987 543 *
1988 517 *
1989 542 $ 74,000
1990 502 79,000
1991 430 81,000
1992 562 87,000
1993 567 93,000
1994 686 98,000
1995 700 106,000
1996 753 115,000
1997 1,054 119,000
1998 1,321 129,000
1999 1,544 139,000
2000 1,776 151,000
2001 2,074 156,000
2002 2,260 163,000
2003 3,329 168,000
2004 3,955 204,000
2005 4,263 232,000
2006 3,935 257,000
2007 2,403 251,000
2008 2,236 231,000
2009 2,115 229,000
2010 2,208 231,000
2011 2,307 241,000
2012 2,850 244,000
2013 3,419 271,000
2014 2,601 304,000
2015 2,294 304,000
2016 1,966
2017 2,231
2018 2,134 281,000
2019 2,429 307,000
2020 2,452
2021 4,004
2022 3,923
2023 3,029 410,000
2024 3,208
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