Agree. Sales in The Villages run counter to what most areas experience. Back home, the highest sales were in Summer while the kids are out of school. Here, a lot of people are gone during these months. There are fewer home-buyer visitors. When the weather cools (right about when this incentive expires), sales will likely uptick. Smart marketing by The Villages.

I respectfully disagree with your assessment.

When they are selling about five hundred a month, hundreds of homes is just inventory. I think you had your home built Dot, one of the last ones to be custom built If I remember correctly. You got to choose exactly WHAT you wanted.

A home in our neighborhood in the last month sold for 30 percent more than what was paid for it just over two years ago.

The sales price on any home here varies according to lot mostly and rear privacy. The same model can vary over 100k on just the lot and view, well over 100k in some instances. So you may be comparing apples to your apple pie.

I am told that over a hundred and fifty folks pulled out after the national coverage of that sinkhole. That is how it goes.

I think your investment and ours is very safe.

There are new houses that have been sitting unsold for over a year. They need to get rid of them, so a golf cart incentive is not a bad idea. TV offers incentives whenever they overbuild. Homes purchased prior to the incentives and discounts quickly regain their value, plus a bit more. That is definitely one of the nicer aspects of purchasing here -- home values quickly recover (at least they have in the three market drops that I've seen in past ten years).

When I bought in Nov of 2011 The Villages was offering 7k off of home price for the first 200 to purchase. Sounds like The Villages has been giving discounts for a while, and not a bad thing either. It convinced me to buy.

I want to be clear that I love the Villages and plan to move there in future. I agree with so many that the community is amazing.

But that said when we came across an open house at a retirement community just up the street I was really surprised at how much more house you got for the money. A house with granite counter tops, top notch appliances, hardwood floors, golf course view, pool etc. was going for a LOT less than the smallest house we looked at in the Villages which had a standard view, builder grade appliances, no pool and was much smaller.

So location wise if selecting between those, I would prefer the smaller home in the Villages but with such substantial differences, it made us wonder if the the home prices in the Villages would continue to climb as they had been. It will be interesting to see how things go in future.

We closed on our home - a resale in Gilchrist - at the end of June. We did look at some of the heavily discounted homes both before we bought and since. In most cases, there is an issue with the house.

For example, VNH 210035 is a fully furnished (not minimally furnished) former model Bridgeport. The location is excellent right on a golf course. The house has a beautiful enclosed pool. BUT - there is only a two car garage and from the front bedroom, you are looking directly at the side of your neighbor's house. The current discount is $61,963.

VNH 2240172 is a lovely Gardenia on a corner lot with a golf car garage. BUT the property has a remediated sink hole. The current discount is $21,633.

When we were looking, these are the type of things we found. While the houses that were discounted were new, they were the ones in a neighborhood were all the other homes were sold. Without much effort, we found reasons for the discounts.

The cost to TV is less than $7k

If Rocketman's information is correct the mark up on homes here is really high.
I know a number of people who bought when TV said take it or leave it and after they bought ended up remodeling to their specifications...some spending really big bucks.

The housing market is spotty around the country. However, initially the draw here was the Villages Lifestyle but perhaps that is not enough any longer due to the increase in size and population etc? In my view there has always been a lot of conceit on the part of the developer but then the developer has always found a way to pull a rabbit from a hat.

Do you mean the margin? or the markup?

Hard to tell, construction prices and materials don't usually go down in price over time and I would guess that over time the great teams here who build homes have gotten raises... and any business anywhere is going to get as much as they can for a hot item.

For instance...what pair of athletic shoes, ANYWHERE is really worth over a hundred dollars?? Or Jimmy Chu shoes, I wouldn't pay those prices??? BUT if you can get it...that is what they will sell for.

A home's price is and always will be what someone is willing to pay for it. They have adjusted their prices before...on the Cottages at Lake Sumter Landing. They are savvy business people and I respect them for that.

One factor beyond their control is the housing market up North. We are in the Maryland suburbs West of Washington, DC, which was very hot in 2013 and early 2014. The market has slowed quite a bit with houses on the market for a much longer time period. We are watching the market very closely as we are getting our house ready to sell and become full time Villagers. Real Estate agents we have interviewed have admitted sales are slowing.

Other variables beyond the developer's control are sinkholes, availability of sinkhole insurance, the final tally from the IRS, businesses choosing to locate in The Villages or not, same with restaurants, golf course conditions (to a certain extent), too much traffic, bad publicity, etc.

1Q14 The Villages Housing Market Analysis

By Builder/Metrostudy

According to first-quarter data from Metrostudy of the Villages, Fl housing market new-home sales are picking up pace annually and new-home prices are on the rise displaying increased demand in one of Florida’s top 20 master planned communities. The Villages, part of the larger Orlando area, is rare in its new-home closings often topping existing home closings per quarter as the planned community is designed for aging in place and is newly built with an added 4,000 homes per year. In the first-quarter of 2014, new-home closings fell just shy of existing with 720 new-home sales versus 794 existing closings. The opposite is true of the fourth-quarter of 2013 in which new-home closings slightly topped existing at 862 versus 843. Although total closings fell between 4Q13 and 1Q14, year-over-year closings are moving on up with a forecast for home sales from Metrostudy approaching 4,000 for 2014. New-home closings in the Villages increased 13 percent between 1Q13 and 1Q14.

Total median closing price in the first-quarter was $244,400, a 15 percent increase from the first-quarter of 2013. Median closing price for new homes also increased to $276,600 from $240, 200 in 1Q13. Price has steadily appreciated for both new and existing homes in the popular active adult market. Price per square foot median is also on a gradual rise peaking for new homes at $193 in the first-quarter.

Increased demand in the Villages is marked by decreased supply. Vacant Developed Lot (VDL) supply decreased from 2,169 to 1,596 from 1Q13 to 1Q14, nearly a 26 percent decrease. This also means a decrease in the VDL months supply from 7.4 to 4.8 months. Additionally, future inventory in the market fell below 31,000 for the first time in four quarters in 1Q14 ending with 29,933. Finally, months supply of housing overall is tight falling from 8.4 in 1Q13 to 5.0 in 1Q14. The rapid demand increase speaks to a the potential for a very good year in sales for the Villages.

1Q14 The Villages Housing Market Analysis - Builder Magazine

Not sure what part of Collier you drove through. Of the approximately 900 houses built here, 9 remain unsold. I am sure there are residents who have not moved in yet and some snowbirds as well resulting in homes that are currently unoccupied. But it is hardly a ghost town.

I'm just curious why you wish you had some equity at this point. You said you paid cash. The value of your equity is the value of your house. Did you mean you wish you had some capital gain at this point?

I'm sure this is a factor as well as there are fewer coming to TV in the summer months. The daily Sun publishes a section 2 or 3 times a week listing homes for sale. On the back page there is a count of homes sold in the past 12 months. In May I noticed the numbers dropping so I started charting it. (Why? beats me...lol)

May 8th
5,236. Total
3,183. New
2053. Pre owned

June 21
5,123
3,104
2,019

July 31
5,071
3,006
2,065

This may be a normal summer trend. I don't know as I have never tracked the data in previous years. It will be interesting to watch.