It all depends on where you live in the USA. Global warming brings drought to some areas and lots of precipitation to others. Extreme heat and humidity during the summer months for some. Massive snowfall in the winter for others. Throughout comes landslides, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados, sinkholes, floods, and disease. If you have found a spot void of all of this, I would stay put too.

Where did I say the Developer is not going to survive? I said, he has quite a bit of inventory and will have to make choices. None of the choices will affect his wallet sufficiently. The choices he makes will most likely affect buyers'wallets.

Will he continue to drop prices on homes? Great! Buyers save money!

Will he sell off some of his land? Or, build on it differently? Great! Pre-owned home prices will go up! And/or, buyers will have new and different types of homes to choose from.

Will he slow the pace of construction? Not so great.This may force workers to leave the area. And, finding companies interested in commercial use will be difficult.

I named the three things the developer could do with his inventory. Slash prices, rethink his future plans, or slow the pace of construction. The only other option is to raise prices.(He made that decision. It didn't go well. I cannot see him choosing this avenue, again. Or, not soon ) I believe it is best to wait and observe what route he chooses. Again, everyone has different situations. Do what you believe is best for you. Me? I do not have a problem with waiting a few months.

Oh good, this turned into a climate change thread

You know why there is a record number of listings, not enough electric car charging stations.

Same old thing...
 

None of this is new. I've purchased a home when The Villages was in a downturn and sold in an up-market twice. There was a time that nearly all new builds were discounted. One thing is for sure, the developer never suffered even in a down market. They watch for the smallest sign of sales decreasing and they take action to boost sales. They have discounted prices, added incentives and focused on building less expensive homes to meet the market in the past. They used to include all appliances including washer and dryer and had furniture packages. They took things away one at a time to lower prices to meet the market demand. The last 2 market downturns developed the same way. New homes sales decreased, and The Villages started lowering prices to keep their quota up. Eventually, you could buy a new home for the same price or just a little more than a new home. Resales started to suffer because people bought new homes instead and the market became flooded with resales. Then the prices of resales stated to plummet. It started with people who had to sell and investors who couldn't cover their expenses. The entire resale market was eventually affected. I've seen it happen two times and it will happen again. It recovered both times and it will cycle again. I'm always amused when people think The Villages is immune to market downturns. It's clear they haven't been around very long.

I think this concern is about personal investments and different scenarios were presented about the developers moves. I don't think anyone gives a rat's butt if the developers are successful, they have enough to float any boat. It's personal income and investments on which some people are basing their choices and concerns.

Yep.
 

I thought the point was clear. Resales are always on the losing end. The developer will maintain their new home sales no matter what it takes. Buying a home in The Villages for personal use and lifestyle enjoyment is smart. Renting your home to off-set your costs until you retire is safe enough. Buying strictly for investment and income is a future hard lesson. Hang on and watch.

Population of The Villages is over 150,000 now.

I've been hanging on for 17+ years and you missed the point again. If people are working with a limited income and looking to buy in TV, choose carefully and plan cautiously. Expenses are rising quickly and there are many costs new home owners in TV are unaware of when buying here. Stating that resales are always on the losing end is a joke, we couldn't have been the only couple who made money on resales.

Large Pirchase
 

A home is a large purchase and many have gotten hit or bit with problems in the past. Always be cautious with the large purchase and be aware of other bills that come from maintaining it once you buy.

No one can blame any for holding off in the current housing environment that is currently downturned and shows no sign of going up anytime soon.

sold for $374K in 2022, now asking $312K, subtract fees = haircut

2388 Hill St,
THE VILLAGES, FL 32163

Jan 16, 2024

Date

Price Changed
Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid #U8221470

$312,500
Price

Dec 15, 2023

Date

Price Changed
Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid #U8221470

$320,000
Price

Dec 9, 2023

Date

Price Changed
Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid #U8221470

$327,500
Price

Nov 16, 2023

Date

Listed (Active)
Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid #U8221470

$335,000
Price

Jul 2022, Sold for $374,000
Jul 15, 2022

Date

Sold (Public Records)
Public Records

$374,000
Price


2388 Hill St, THE VILLAGES, FL 32163 | MLS# U8221470 | Redfin

Drove from Soulliere to Lake Dedham a while back to look at open house didn’t seem to far.

Thank you for posting this. I figured it had passed the 130,000 that is so often quoted!

May I ask your source (so that I can quote it to others)?

(Former newspaper reporter here!)

Yes, that is what happened in past years. This time, there are several new factors that are coming into play. Interest rates are much higher, prices of homes have soared, and amenities are lacking. Everywhere I go, it is crowded.

After the Covid lockdown, we had a large influx of younger residents. Will this continue or have they been forced back to their home offices?

This is the first time I have seen the developer working on 3 town centers simultaneously: East Port, Middleton, and the revitalization of Spanish Springs. This makes me wonder how all the store fronts and office space are going to get filled. It took years for Brownwood to reach full merchant capacity.

Outside building is booming. Apartments, town homes, homes, you name it! They are popping up everywhere. It won't be long before a 55+ community offering something unique will come along.

The prison is on federal land. Now that a city is being built, will they keep the prison? Or, will they build something different? It is their land. They can do as they please.

The times are a changing.....

Flat Fee
 

“Flat Fee” sales are helping many save thousands when selling their homes. I already see several moves right here in the Villages as several ask why get a realtor when I’m selling.

Zero closing costs are much better and help the seller control the situation. They can charge less and move their property quickly. Realtor costs in many situations for resale here can be 40 k and up. Just think how much quicker you could sell your house using that margin for some mark down.

Use Zillow, for free or…flat fee places like Home Coin and Clever. There’s nothing wrong with you walking away with a new car instead of just blindly handing it over to a real estate seller and in most cases they do all title work and closing!

The information/internet era is here! The day will soon come when everyone will wonder why anyone used a realtor. If you have ever looked at Zillow, you have already helped the process.

The increasing use will of course bring prices down more to a reality level.

It was in the Daily Sun yesterday or the day before.

It’s less than a half hour cart ride. 10 minutes to Sawgrass by cart.

I see The Villages housing market as being several different markets.
1. You have "the flippers". They know going into it they aren't buying their "forever" home. Timing the market is paramount for these buyers. Initial purchase price, interest rates (now and over the next few years) are critically important. Proximity to what makes "The Villages Lifestyle" what it is is less important, figuring that while they get a discount for the current remoteness of the new neighborhood, that remoteness will go away in a few years and raise the desirability of the area.

2. You have the older retiree who is looking at what the area offers now. Being "10 minutes away" from Sawgrass, but on the far side of it relative to Brownwood and LSL and Championship Golf , etc matter NOW. Some folks say the resales are "overpriced". That's not true. They fetch a higher price because of a more favorable and attractive location to this particular market, who likely have more money, don't need a mortgage, and don't want to spend 5 years waiting for amenities and infrastructure to catch up.

3. You have the "soon to be retired"...less bothered by relative remoteness of the area, figuring the amenities and infrastructure will catch up by the time they arrive for retirement. They probably have a mortgage to consider.

4. "The clueless" who think "The Villages is The Villages" and haven't spent enough time here to understand the differences between the older and newer areas. This market is probably less likely to understand why resales seem "over priced". Also, more likely to complain after they have bought, about the remoteness of the squares, and Championship golf etc etc while these things are catching up.

There is a reason, or several reasons, why Richmond was such a hot sell, and Lake Denham is not. The primary reason being proximity to Brownwood and what lies north of 44, compared to being out on the "frontier". These "frontier" towns are more likely to be affected by glitches in the overall housing market because of the type of buyer they are more attractive to, i.e. "The Flipper". If The Developer suddenly announced another village with the same kind of proximity to Brownwood, or LSL as Richmond had, it would also sell hot.

I agree with most of what you said. There are different types of buyers and different types of markets. Right now, we are in a cautionary market. I do not believe anyone can say with certainty what will happen next. Whatever happens, for better or worse, none of us will be surprised. The market can go either way. Be diligent, ask questions, and do your research. If you get a gnawing feeling that something isn't right, it probably isn't. Take your time before jumping in.

I lived on a street that had many rentals and flippers. Flippers do not go to remote areas and wait until a home becomes desirable to sell. They look for areas where they can make $$$$. This is why areas like Richmond sell out quickly. Homes close to squares bring in large, year-round, rental income. The homes are also ridiculously easy to flip for a large profit.

If you are thinking about buying your forever home near a square, be warned. You may be surrounded by rentals and neighbors who have no plans on staying. When they leave, another rental may be added to your neighborhood. AirBnB owners snatch as many homes near the squares that they can get their hands on.

Number is meaningless. No way to quantify the number of unmotivated listings fishing for a bite

Quantify
 

Or discover how many are waiting to sell, but can’t in this competitive buyer’s market.

Definitely not a buyer's market.

Seller is setting the price and really not much negotiation.

Buyer is a great marketer and gives perceived discounts.

The number of days a pre-owned home has been sitting on the market is provided on every MLS listing.
The VLS does not provide this information but you can search a particular model of home to see how many are on the market and compare the prices asked. You will quickly notice the homes that are overpriced.

I generally agree with all of this. I think one thing that is not mentioned enough about the "frontier," though, is that for folks where finances are a consideration, the homes in Newell, Lake Denham and Dabney do have higher costs. Not only are the bond amounts higher, but so is the bond interest rate. There are many average homes down there where the bond approaches $3,000 a year. Add to that Leesburg/Lake County taxes which are higher and higher mortgage interest rates, and the monthly costs may be more than typical Villages buyers have been comfortable paying. Obviously if someone is a cash buyer and a few thousand dollars a year is not a deal-breaker, this won't apply, but it certainly applies to some.

Yeah, I hadn't even considered the effects of the higher bonds and taxes.

Why pay higher monthly expenses when you do not have to? No matter your income, I think that is what buyers are looking at. Five or ten years from now, you may be happy you avoided the higher bonds, taxes, and interest rates. Investment markets change dramatically. Your spouse may die or need expensive medical attention. Your income now may not be the same years down the road. A few hundred dollars per month may make a difference.

I know a widowed man whose monthly expenses are small. Instead of buying a new car or home, he tips extremely well, pays for groceries when he sees a single mom in line, picks up restaurant tabs, and gives to local charities. It places a smile on his face each time. Extra monthly income does make a difference.

Okay
 

Okay, a market where most pay less than listed price! . Exactly 74% sold below listed price. Does that sound more accurate to you? It’s exactly what is listed for December 2023 on records. Or maybe it’s helpful to list all the new and pre owned properties that are at “reduced prices” now? Maybe the lots that were cut by 40%. Wherever I can help. Maybe county records, Zillow, Redfin, Realtors.com and Rocket can help?

No one I know of believes everything is great right now. Do you have any sources for your presumption that things are going well?

Yes, I was also going to ask what he bases his claim on because I don't see that. I've been watching the housing market in TV almost every day for 2 months and like Margaret said, above, I see many over-priced houses, also lots of reduced prices and plenty on the market.

Most definitely not a sellers market right now. Realtor.com shows 6.25 pages of Reduced Price homes for sale. 42 listed per page = over 260. That doesn't include the TV listings and prices are being trimmed on those too and many are sitting.
See The Villages Reduced

(1) Don't forget who sets "list price". Marketing people set retail prices high in order to discount and make the consumer feel like there are getting a deal. Hook, Line & Sinker.

(2) Jus talking to the family...........we'll jus say, the business is doing very well.

2%, 5%, 8% discounting...........is that really discounting, or is it marketing??

$200, $250, $300 per SF is not cheap.

:beer3:

When you say "over-priced" are referring to listings that are asking way more than they will sell for, or are you referring to homes that have actually sold, but for more (in your opinion, anyway) than they should have sold for?

You can only go down in price so it’s listed high. Realtors do it to get the listing. Bidding wars are history.

Seller’s Market
 

In a Seller’s Market bids are received and paid usually above listed price. We aren’t in that market here. Homes are mostly if not all selling at or below listed price. December saw the opposite as more than 70% of homes in the Villages Florida sold BELOW listed price.

Add to the discussion that many in the past have said that people are waiting for Eastport where properties will be more in demand for various reasons. The lots in those areas though generally cheaper at face value are not selling either. As a future villager, I believe what has been lost is an overall affordability that folks look for in retirement. I personally started looking at TV when the top end homes were 400k-500k now a 3br 2bth with a glimpse of a pond is 800k plus. Retirees are not looking to upsize, so it limits the folks that can buy in the current price ranges.

I'm an amateur in this business. Is that some sort of "professional" definition? It seems to me that defined that way, a sellers market would be quite rare. Am I wrong?

If you go to VLS and type in the model of home you like, all available come up. You will see most comparables (same sqft, flooring and the like) are within the same price range. But, there will be one or two who want $50,000 - $200,000 more. Lot is not better, no pool, or extended lanais. They are just asking more. They are hoping a buyer who wants to live in that particular village will pay much more to do that. Sometimes that strategy works.

Neither. But, actually some of the first one. I'm referring to many houses sitting for too long and, very often, the reason for that, in any geographic market, is that they are over-priced. Click the link in my last post...over 260 markdowns. And many of them still sit.

My experience over more than a couple decades is that real estate agents are often late to notice a shift in the market and so don't have their listings priced accordingly when one occurs. One agent did tell me something, years ago, that I have found to be spot-on and all would benefit to realize it. It is that: The first 30 days of a listing is the primo time for sellers to get the most attention and best sales price. After that, the listing starts going stale and the seller is often chasing the price down.

So, the lesson there is: Clean up the property, cull a lot of the excess junk out and price it right if a seller wants it sold without prolonged agony. Example - putting a price that is 30 to 40% higher than the price you paid less than two years prior and you've done no major improvements is pretty much a joke. I've seen many of those recently in TV.

It appears that the county assessor is in on the joke.

A sellers market usually occurs when inventory is low and demand is high. This happened in the Village of Richmond. There was a list of 30 interested buyers for nearly every available home. When this occurs, there will be no discounts given on the price of the home. If it is a preowned home, the asking price could get raised.

This is not what is occurring at the moment. Inventory is sitting and prices of homes are being reduced. Sellers who are asking for more are doing it without concern of the downward.trend. They believe they can find one buyer who is willing to pay much more for the same model of home. Like I said, sometimes this strategy works. However, the buyer will be sitting in a home that is worth less than he/she paid. Buyer Beware!

Not necessarily. The appraiser will use comparable prices of homes when assessing the property for taxes. Usually, the only winner is the seller who received MUCH MORE than the home was worth.

This is why buyers are waiting to see what the real estate market brings. How low will the prices go? No one wants to own a home they paid far too much or be upside down on the mortgage.

Again, as a layman, your definition makes sense to me. Obviously even to me is the dynamic that the higher the supply relative to demand, the more pressure there will be to price lower, and vice versa to all that.
I'd just never heard a seller's market so strictly defined as a market wherein asking price always invites a bidding war. I'm sure that's a sign of an extreme seller's market, but I wouldn't have thought that was, by definition, a requirement.

It seems to me that being "overpriced" would be to ask considerably more than what the recent comps would indicate. I get the impression that some people use the term to mean "more than what I think anyone should pay", or "more than I'm willing to pay".

A new home in the Villages is never negotiated. The price is the price. They will not waiver or ask more even if many buyers are interested in the same home.

Bidding wars can occur with preowned homes. If a seller has several buyers interested in his property, he/she will obviously take the highest offer.

Bidding wars do not happen with every home and are not indicative of a seller's market. It is one or a few homeowners who have a property that has plenty of buyer interest.

The last seller's market occurred when Covid lockdown and restrictions were lifted. As we all know, prices soared. We are now experiencing a softening of home prices. It is a cautionary market. Home prices can continue to decline or they can rise.