[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by Garywt

You have to remember that today there are more homes in the Villages than ever before so it makes sense that there would be more homes for sale. Anyone looking should be able to find what they want. Interesting that there are over 400 new homes for sale giving not long ago there were lotteries just for people to put a deposit down and now over 400 new homes for sale, different times.

For pre-owned homes, it definitely "makes sense that there would be more homes for sale." However, I don't think you can make the same argument for NEW homes, which would have the DEVELOPER trying to maintain a % of newly built to existing. The real issue is how quickly inventory has increased over the last 12 months and even more so in the last 30 days. We are finally getting to a healthier level of inventory, which should keep home value appreciation in check. 2024 will be a VERY telling year. TV expansion is in hyper mode and it will be interesting to see if the demand will remain constant.

[justjim]

Originally Posted by RICH1

INSURANCE RATES AND TAXES are running people out! Nobody's wants in either...

Got to love sarcasm. In ‘23 only 3,000 plus new homes were sold in TV… Nobody wants to come here now.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by Craig Vernon

I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

Supply and demand. Good for buyers for those who do not need to sell, except for people who own in a better sellers market.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by Laker14

you will never know the exact perfect time to buy until it has passed.

Easier in the housing market vs the stock market.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

Meaningless statistic. So many south of 44 flippers asking absurd prices

Timing is everything in the flipping market.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by RICH1

INSURANCE RATES AND TAXES are running people out! Nobody's wants in either...

Insurance? Anywhere near the more desirable locations(near the coast and further south) in Florida insurance is 3-4X more expensive than in TV. They will continue to go up in TV but not like other areas of Florida. We have a 350K home in TV and taxes are less than 2K and are capped on future raises. If someone can not afford taxes and insurance in TV they need to consider living elsewhere.

[MrChip72]

For most of 2023, many people were delaying selling until interest rates started backing down and resale prices were stabilizing. It seems like that time is now.

At the very least, average time on the market is a better indicator of what's going on than number of homes on the market.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by MrChip72

For most of 2023, many people were delaying selling until interest rates started backing down and resale prices were stabilizing. It seems like that time is now.

At the very least, average time on the market is a better indicator of what's going on than number of homes on the market.

Not according to Treasury’s. The market is still way from the bottom. December median sales price in the Villages is 377,262, down 7,751 off of December the year before. Also, the number of homes sold is down 21.5% from November to December. 74.2 % of homes ended up selling for below asking. It is definitely a very poor choice to buy right now.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by asianthree

So not really much of a change considering how many homes are closing per month. But my suggestion to separate stats per village may help your research for a new home. Stats are great, but in the long run, you really need to make decisions on what home you want, do you want a new home or a preowned.

In 07 houses were selling before final touches were in place. Why because rumor was it was the end. Well that didn’t happen. In 2010 we bought in Pennacamp, basically 90% of this site told us we were so stupid buying so close to end of TV we would never sell. Took 15 days to sell,

Then we bought in Fernandina, again many on this site couldn’t believe we were buying so far far away from a town square. Sold that house in 5 days. Due to wanting a larger garage, we moved to a preowned near Seabreeze. Loved the house but not the location. However in 2014 didn’t want to move farther south, because my mom’s family was 3 minutes from that house.

A year before Richmond was a twinkling to residents we knew that was where we wanted to build. Yes we have a turnpike 3 streets over, and the normal amount of rentals that every new village has due to flippers.

But when we choose to move from LSL area, for this last house we made a why and why not list.
1. how many times into SS…three times a year.
2. How many times into LSL which was 12 minutes away….about 6 times a year.
3. How many times into Brownwood area 20 minutes away once a week.

So our determination on the fourth house was about would the lot fit our house and still leave room for a pool. Did it have a view out back, and how close to turnpike so we could quickly get on for travel to Gainesville, Orlando, and Disney.

Not at any time was what homes were selling, and where, or the cost of homes Our need for certain things is what made the final decision.

Sometimes all the planning and stats can go right out the window when you find what will work for you. As you can see we have lived in multiple areas of TV, No attachment to any house. I really think coming here and staying in multiple areas might change your entire strategy

It appears your strategy works well for you but not everyone has unlimited funds so there are many areas in The Villages that work well for people within a budget.

[Altavia]

Maybe the precast walls construction accelerated building new home construction inventory.


Also, the very limited customization options have kept potential buyers from building new.

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by Altavia

Maybe the precast walls construction accelerated building new home construction inventory.


Also, the very limited customization options have kept potential buyers from building new.

Possibly. But new frame homes are also sitting. I received an updated list of new homes that have reduced prices. The count is now 200+. About a month ago, 75 new construction homes had a discounted price.

I agree with the posters on this thread. It is not a good to buy. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the next few months.

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by Randall55

Possibly. But new frame homes are also sitting. I received an updated list of new homes that have reduced prices. The count is now 200+. About a month ago, 75 new construction homes had a discounted price.

I agree with the posters on this thread. It is not a good to buy. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the next few months.

The counter intuitive part is they still appear to be selling 50-70 new homes a week..

[Laker14]

[QUOTE=Randall55;2290954]Possibly. But new frame homes are also sitting. I received an updated list of new homes that have reduced prices. The count is now 200+. About a month ago, 75 new construction homes had a discounted price.

I agree with the posters on this thread. It is not a good to buy. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the next few months.[/QUOTE]

Then how do you know it is not a good time to buy?

How do you know this is not the bottom? When will you know it is?

If your only concern is making sure you don't buy at anytime BUT the bottom, and you don't mind missing out on the home you want at a decent price, then you can wait until that perfect moment, assuming you recognize it when you see it, however, if you are retiring, or planning on buying a home that you will live in long-term, then does it really matter if you hit the absolute perfect moment?

Unless your intention is flipping, why wait? We aren't getting any younger.

[spinner1001]

Home sales are down nationally from one year earlier except for higher-end homes. It’s associated with higher mortgage interest rates. Similar sales slow down here. It’s the economy.

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defaul...4xNzA1MjM3ODUz

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Laker14

Unless your intention is flipping, why wait? We aren't getting any younger.

If you are looking for an exact time, you would need data in retrospect. Since we don’t have that, you need to examine the market and its tendencies. The market IS by ALL indicators still trending downward. Why buy when in essence you are losing money?

Just look at the local market here! More than 70% of homes last month were purchased BELOW ASKING. Look at The Villages new home prices, or perhaps their lot prices. View lots in Moultrie are down 40%. It’s a buyers market officially this month.

Yes, if you just want to burn money, buy. If not, it may be best to wait till the bottom hits.

Examining forces on price are the key to determining local market values: Mortgage rates, building costs, inventory, regulation, future costs including annual taxes, location and comparable comps are the tip of the iceberg. They are influenced by the more macroeconomic engines such as treasury note pricing , hourly wages, shadowed property values, local annexations and even square footage pricing on pre owned homes.

Then there is the entire demand side which is changing constantly. Inflation has made higher prices unaffordable PARTICULARLY in the Villages. The purchasing demographic are or will be forecasted to retire on a median fixed income. The number has decreased for this group significantly as indicated by employment of those once retired but now forced to work.

RETIREMENT IS THE SINGLE LARGEST FINANCIAL MOVE IN LIFE, followed by…you guessed it, BUYING a HOME.