[actor]

We received an e-mail from our sales rep yesterday and was informed that the current 3% incentive on home prices will be discontinued on 1/1/2010. We're still trying to sell our house up north, and only have a deposit on a lot in TV. Maybe we'll get lucky and sell before the end of the year which will allow me to send in the 20% deposit and lock in the incentive. Anyone else hear anything about where new home prices in TV are headed?

[Barefoot]

Originally Posted by actor

We received an e-mail from our sales rep yesterday and was informed that the current 3% incentive on home prices will be discontinued on 1/1/2010. We're still trying to sell our house up north, and only have a deposit on a lot in TV. Maybe we'll get lucky and sell before the end of the year which will allow me to send in the 20% deposit and lock in the incentive. Anyone else hear anything about where new home prices in TV are headed?

Village agents will tell you that building supply costs are increasing and therefore TV is increasing the price of new homes.

[l2ridehd]

Tracking the resale market, home prices have moved up in October and November. I have a long complicated formula that I use that looks a lot size, house size, freatures, and a few other items and gets it down to $$ per square foot for home and lot. Then assign a percentage to each for average cost per square foot. I throw out the top and bottom 5% and any where the name transfer is the same last name. 100% accurate, no. A great indicator yes. And I use asking price and selling price. However selling price I am delayed for about 60 days in getting the information. But take it to the bank that homes prices in TV are moving in a positive direction. Also the gap between asking price and selling price for the resale market is starting to close.

[BobKat1]

Originally Posted by l2ridehd

Tracking the resale market, home prices have moved up in October and November. I have a long complicated formula that I use that looks a lot size, house size, freatures, and a few other items and gets it down to $$ per square foot for home and lot. Then assign a percentage to each for average cost per square foot. I throw out the top and bottom 5% and any where the name transfer is the same last name. 100% accurate, no. A great indicator yes. And I use asking price and selling price. However selling price I am delayed for about 60 days in getting the information. But take it to the bank that homes prices in TV are moving in a positive direction. Also the gap between asking price and selling price for the resale market is starting to close.

Interesting system. Thanks for sharing.

In general (high/low) what is the gap between asking and selling price on resales.

[CountingDown]

Originally Posted by l2ridehd

Tracking the resale market, home prices have moved up in October and November. I have a long complicated formula that I use that looks a lot size, house size, freatures, and a few other items and gets it down to $$ per square foot for home and lot. Then assign a percentage to each for average cost per square foot. I throw out the top and bottom 5% and any where the name transfer is the same last name. 100% accurate, no. A great indicator yes. And I use asking price and selling price. However selling price I am delayed for about 60 days in getting the information. But take it to the bank that homes prices in TV are moving in a positive direction. Also the gap between asking price and selling price for the resale market is starting to close.

We just purchased a home and will make settlement in January. I was doing something similar. I began tracking asking/selling prices from the listings offered through "The Villages Properties." I agree that the gap is closing. The Zillow site is also showing the Village Homes on the rise. Although I am grateful for the recovery, I sympathize with anyone who is still having trouble selling their properties elsewhere! Good luck to all.

[l2ridehd]

Bobkat1 The gap is different between MLS and VLS. It has has varied from a high of about 7% on MLS to a low of 3% on VLS over the past two years. Right now the latest data shows MLS at 4.35% and VLS at 1.87%. Remember I throw out the top and bottom 5% because there is always some that just don't meet the smell test of reality. An example in the last couple months was a home listed at $269K and the final closing price was $291K. Did they sell it furnished? With a new car or golf cart? With another house lot someplace? With a paid off bond? Who knows. But you know something had to happen with this transaction that was not normal. and there are examples in the other direction as well.

But consistently the MLS homes have had a larger gap between asking and selling price then the VLS homes. I suspect that VLS prices them closer to reality because they can show potential sellers the competition they have with new homes. However final selling price between the two is almost identical.

[villages07]

L2.... very interesting analysis that you do.

Just curious, since you look at MLS and VLS, what's the volume and trendline on resales? i.e. total number of units sold each month and recent trend (increasing, descreasing, or flat # of sales). Thanks.

[l2ridehd]

07 I know my data is not accurate as to total number of homes as I throw out all abnormal transactions, home types I have no interest in and I miss many FSBO. Trends would be meaningful though. It reached a bottom in March of 2008, remained flat for about a year, then started moving up. It has moved up significantly in the last few months. Started in mid to late August. In fact volume has almost doubled from the very bottom to the latest high. Also remember this is just a portion of the resale market only. I do nothing with new. And selling price is moving up as well. As soon as the inventory is reduced, probably about 90 to 180 days based on current available homes, I would expect to see sharpe price increases. Again this would be dependant on what TV does with new homes. But history says they will sell at what the market will accept.

I do this analysis as I occasionally buy homes to flip, buy homes to rent, and to track home value. So my scope of interest is not the total market. I focus mainly on Designer homes, patio villas and ranches. I ignore CYV and Premiers as I have no interest in them for my use. So trends have valuable information, total volumes I track is just a segment of the market I want to understand.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by l2ridehd

07 I know my data is not accurate as to total number of homes as I throw out all abnormal transactions, home types I have no interest in and I miss many FSBO. Trends would be meaningful though. It reached a bottom in March of 2008, remained flat for about a year, then started moving up. It has moved up significantly in the last few months. Started in mid to late August. In fact volume has almost doubled from the very bottom to the latest high. Also remember this is just a portion of the resale market only. I do nothing with new. And selling price is moving up as well. As soon as the inventory is reduced, probably about 90 to 180 days based on current available homes, I would expect to see sharpe price increases. Again this would be dependant on what TV does with new homes. But history says they will sell at what the market will accept.

I do this analysis as I occasionally buy homes to flip, buy homes to rent, and to track home value. So my scope of interest is not the total market. I focus mainly on Designer homes, patio villas and ranches. I ignore CYV and Premiers as I have no interest in them for my use. So trends have valuable information, total volumes I track is just a segment of the market I want to understand.

Wow. I have always been interested in your assessments. Very good information and I thank you.

I have a strange ability to remember prices of homes. I am more interested in Premiers and Designers, but I agree that Designers are slowly heading up in TV. Our comparable home on a comparable lot has gone up about 5K in price in about 15 months.

[villages07]

Thanks, L2, that is very insightful. My interest is more academic than real as I hope to never move again, but, I find the Villages real estate market cycles fascinating. I'm sure others in the market to buy or sell will gain great benefit from your independent analysis.

[graciegirl]

And yet another thread from 2009 on price increases. I think that no one needs to panic.

Is it o.k. Talk Host if I reactivate these threads? Just trying to have people see that it has been discussed before.

[batman911]

Anyone know what the average days on market is now for resale homes in TV. That figure and trend will tell you if demand is increasing.