Those are the people who are trying to get double the price they paid 2-3 years ago...

You will fall in love with TV on your lifestyle visit, I did this past summer. Hopefully I’ll be buying a new home this coming Monday (fingers crossed)

A very large percentage of buyers in The Villages pay cash which is another reason property values tend to stay higher than most of the country.

I first started following home prices in TV around 2007, when friends of mine bought a home in the brand new (then brand new) Village of Largo. When the "Big Housing Bubble" burst in 2008, there was a modest downturn in prices, but it didn't last long, and wasn't nearly as drastic as in other parts of Florida, or many other parts of the country.
I did know a lady who, in her late 70s, overly leveraged herself financially, buying multiple properties in TV, and then she got scared and sold them all at the bottom....a very bad outcome for her.
But as a person interested in buying at the bottom, there really wasn't that much of a bottom in TV. Not like Las Vegas, or even Cape Coral.
TV is unique. Property values, and what people are willing to pay for homes in TV, aren't as tied to things like whether or not there is work to be found, as, say, a suburb of Chicago. There is some upward effect when there has been 10 years of historically positive stock market returns, and historically low mortgage rates, along with an unusually high number of early retirements, fueled by the stock market wealth and COVID. Corrections there will have an effect on demand, but historically, if you are looking for a 30% or 40% crash in prices in TV, that hasn't happened. You could wait for it to happen, and if it does, you can swoop in and buy at the bottom. Or, you can wait for it to happen, and if it never does, well, you just won't ever live in TV.

You ask why home prices haven’t crashed?

How do you define crash?

A stock market crash is usually described as a double-digit percentage drop in a stock index over the course of a few days.

I think that many resale prices have dropped at least 10% from the initial listing but they were way overpriced to begin with. Is that a crash?

I have seen homes that were bought last year going on the market this year with a 50% increase in price. A lot of them are not moving. I think the 2021 bubble is over.

We bought last year. I probably could have sold for 25% profit earlier this year. Some neighbors sold for about 33% profit. I think I could still sell at a profit of maybe 10-15% but after commissions and moving costs, it would be a wash.

So is that a crash?

Unless the economy really tanks - think 1929 crash, I think my home will hold its value. Wish I could say the same about my 401(k).

Well said!

I would think that as interest rates rise, new retirees will be able to get less for their homes up north and therefore have less to spend on their home in The Villages and that will have a downward effect on prices.

Agreed

That is a very good point.

According to Zillow, our house has doubled in value, but it has taken six years. Recently, it has even decreased in value. Such is life.

Great posts everyone. I appreciate the insight. Personally, I need more margin of safety when purchasing a high ticket item in these interesting economic times. The Fed is clearly raising interest rates, which will impact the housing markets. Many folks may pay cash for properties in TV, however I tend to believe just as many don’t. The Ocala region is certainly chuck-full of mortgage lenders. Developers and builders always manipulate supply and demand to protect their interests, however one thing is clear, if homes aren't selling, prices and profits will be impacted, potentially leading to economic domino effects. Unless Tinker-bell files overhead sprinkling magic dust, my internal gauge for risk is flashing “Patience & Defense”.

I have so many questions, too many for this thread. Most revolve around true TV living costs and increase of such over time, home construction quality, overgrowth, living among renters, labor market staffing availability, and on a grander scale, sustainability of the whole TV business model (Is it a boomer driven fad? High dollar area folks from the coasts pricing out everyone else? Will TV be targeted by powerful political interests bent on destroying conservative values?).

Perhaps I’m demanding the impossible, seeking objectivity in a world of subjectivity. I understand the pride of folks that buy into TV; they have skin-in-the-game, that said, despite past performance, TV is not immune from economic reality. Since I’m a proof-is-in-the-pudding type of guy, my lifestyle visit is still on for 2023. I’m hoping to fall in love too.

Great posts everyone. I appreciate the insight. Personally, I need more margin of safety when purchasing a high ticket item in these interesting economic times. The Fed is clearly raising interest rates, which will impact the housing markets. Many folks may pay cash for properties in TV, however I tend to believe just as many don’t. The Ocala region is certainly chuck-full of mortgage lenders. Developers and builders always manipulate supply and demand to protect their interests, however one thing is clear, if homes aren't selling, prices and profits will be impacted, potentially leading to economic domino effects. Unless Tinker-bell files overhead sprinkling magic dust, my internal gauge for risk is flashing “Patience & Defense”.

I have so many questions, too many for this thread. Most revolve around true TV living costs and increase of such over time, home construction quality, overgrowth, living among renters, labor market staffing availability, and on a grander scale, sustainability of the whole TV business model (Is it a boomer driven fad? High dollar area folks from the coasts pricing out everyone else? Will TV be targeted by powerful political interests bent on destroying conservative values?).

Perhaps I’m demanding the impossible, seeking objectivity in a world of subjectivity. I understand the pride of folks that buy into TV; they have skin-in-the-game, that said, despite past performance, TV is not immune from economic reality. Since I’m a proof-is-in-the-pudding type of guy, my lifestyle visit is still on for 2023. I’m hoping to fall in love too.

You aren't anyone else. There are billions of people different than you.

and where were you three years ago when the houses were cheap compared to today, and you could have made lots of money on the build and sale in two years?

So what? the stock market is an investment place. Homes aren't investments, so why are you relating the two? There is a significant portion of the population who can afford to do it, likewise given the events of hurricanes, there may be some peeps taking their insurance money are relocating to a now nicer inland house, could be in the villages, or not.

You aren't taking into consideration downsizing effects from high cost of living areas to here.

Looks like you were looking at IBIS. Lived in area. At one point you could buy in other country clubs(such as Boca West) for next to nothing since demand in golf was at a low point and buyers were not paying equity cost and the minimum(20-25K) yearly costs. These were REAL country clubs with all of the amenities.

Yup...