[tuccillo]

Precipitation computations inside of the forecast codes is complicated, difficult, and have significant errors as you get further out in time. Also, convective precipitation, as opposed to the steady rain associated with large cool weather systems, is more difficult. So, that is the number the forecast code is putting out and that is a pretty big number over a pretty large area. I should have prefaced my original comment with "that is a pretty big number". It could be, and probably will be higher. Along the coastal regions, the NWS code is putting out 10-15 inches and the HNC forecasters think the NWS spectral code is too far east so that would argue for higher amounts in our area. I suggest listening to what the forecasters are saying on the Weather Channel or network TV.

Originally Posted by NECHFalcon68

Tuc - how dependable is that precipitation forecast? Recently we had a storm that brought close to 4 inches in 2 hours. 5 inches over 5 days doesnt seem to be an issue.

[NECHFalcon68]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Precipitation computations inside of the forecast codes is complicated, difficult, and has significant errors as you get further out in time. Also, convective precipitation, as opposed to the steady rain associated with large cool weather systems, is more difficult. So, that is the number the forecast code is putting out and that is a pretty big number over a pretty large area. I should have prefaced my original comment with "that is a pretty big number". It could be, and probably will be higher. Along the coastal regions, the NWS code is putting out 10-15 inches. I suggest listening to what the forecasters are saying on the Weather Channel or network TV.

Capisce.
Thanks!

[jimbo2012]

Assuming it passes to the east the wind should start East > NE then north.

It is in a counter clockwise rotation

[larbud]

[QUOTE=jimbo2012;1444720]Assuming it passes to the east the wind should start East > NE then north.

It is in a counter clockwise rotation

[tuccillo]

Here is the latest precipitation forecast from the NHC forecasters. We are in the middle of the 6-10 inch band. If you draw a line between Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, The Villages is not quite half way along that line (slightly west of the middle of the line). This seems like a reasonable estimation from the forecasters based on 5+ inches from the 6Z cycle of the NWS spectral model with an eastward bias on the track.

HURRICANE IRMA

[tuccillo]

The 11AM forecast discussion has the latest maximum wind forecasts. Here they are:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.8N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.7N 80.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.0N 81.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1200Z 29.3N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 34.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

12Z on the 11th (the 72 hour forecast) is Monday at 8AM. The position of Irma is forecasted to be just north of The Villages and the forecast maximum wind is forecasted to be 75 mph.

[villages07]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Here is the latest precipitation forecast from the NHC forecasters. We are in the middle of the 6-10 inch band. If you draw a line between Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, The Villages is not quite half way along that line (slightly west of the middle of the line). This seems like a reasonable estimation from the forecasters based on 5+ inches from the 6Z cycle of the NWS spectral model with an eastward bias on the track.

HURRICANE IRMA

The 11am update shows another significant shift to the west. A trend that started yesterday pm. Do you think this trend will continue and how much further can it shift..enough to greatly reduce our exposure?


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[NECHFalcon68]

Originally Posted by villages07

The 11am update shows another significant shift to the west. A trend that started yesterday pm. Do you think this trend will continue and how much further can it shift..enough to greatly reduce our exposure?


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wouldnt a westerly shift put us in the NE quadrant where tornadoes are a problem?

[villages07]

Originally Posted by NECHFalcon68

wouldnt a westerly shift put us in the NE quadrant where tornadoes are a problem?

True...I was wondering about possibility of a big westward shift into the gulf that takes us out of the eye wall range.


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[tuccillo]

Wow - the storm track has shifted west with the 5PM forecast discussion. Here is the latest:

HURRICANE IRMA

Please watch the Weather Channel or network TV to keep on top of the evolving situation.

[dewilson58]

Shifting West...........I assume it's best if it stays over land and not go out to sea.

Hoping the move West of TV (rather than "over") is an improvement.

THANKS Tucc!!

[ColdNoMore]

Tallahassee better be preparing...just in case.

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Wow - the storm track has shifted west with the 5PM forecast discussion. Here is the latest:

HURRICANE IRMA

Please watch the Weather Channel or network TV to keep on top of the evolving situation.

Tuccillo, your highly educated interpretation of the storm forecasts, as they are updated, is very much appreciated. IMHO, much more informative than watching the weather channel and other news sources. Please keep them coming.

[BostonRich]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Shifting West...........I assume it's best if it stays over land and not go out to sea.

Hoping the move West of TV (rather than "over") is an improvement.

THANKS Tucc!!

I know that the northeast part of the storm is the "dirty" or worst part. Also it's the section that spawns tornadoes. So moving west of us is probably not an improvement but actually could be much worse.

[tuccillo]

Based on the 11PM forecast discussion, we are still in the 6-10 inch range for rainfall:

HURRICANE IRMA

The NHC forecasted path continues up the west coast of FL:

HURRICANE IRMA

The maximum forecasted windspeeds for Irma are about 100 mph as the storm is forecasted to pass to our west on Monday morning. We should experience something less than that.