My Mother, who currently resides in Heaven, just reminded me that if you make the bed and have on clean undies, no harm will come to you. It has worked for 65 years so who am I to argue with logic!?

Are the Keys being evacuated?

Not yet

The 12Z cycle of the NWS Spectral code takes Irma up the east coast of FL with landfall near the GA/SC border. This is consistent with the 06Z cycle. The simulation puts Irma directly east of The Villages (on the east coast) around 5AM Monday Morning. This is still out at 6 days into the future so there can be substantial uncertainties. Everything considered, this would be a good outcome for The Villages (windy with several inches of rain), less so for others. The 5PM Forecast discussion by the NHC should be an interesting read. The ECMWF code runs a bit later than the NWS code.

For those who are wondering what a "model" is, here is brief description. Essentially a "model" is a computer code that solves the 3-dimensional equations for fluid motion that describe the atmosphere. These are basically conservation equations for momentum, pressure, temperature, and several moisture variables. These are time dependent partial differential equations so they can be numerically integrated from an initial state to simulate the future state of momentum, pressure, temperature, and moisture. For the NWS code, the initial state is created every 6 hours using various data sources around the globe. Forecasters will then look at the solutions and create the "worded" forecast that you hear/read on various media sources.

Up through center of State
 

Don't panic! If Irma comes up through the center of Florida, it will be much weaker by the time it gets to The Villages. Start planning for a "hurricane party"! My friends just went shopping and no bottled water left. Some people panic yesterday and carried most of it out of the stores. Selfish and greed... No problem---just fill up containers with tap water. Cheaper and better for the environment anyway.

For those with enclosed lanais with slider/stackable windows, depending on your design, consider leaving them open to avoid pressure build up.

Ours for example has stackable sliders on three sides.....the manufacturer and installer state they are designed for 70 mph....and recommend leaving them open at higher wind speeds.

Our plan is to move the furniture toward the backside of the house and leave the sliders stacked open.

I am usually the one who ignores the weather people and all their hype. At least I haven't heard the "hunker down" phrase yet!

Thank you for your kind words!

Even though I've been through this many times it gets worse as you get older.

Hurricane myths
 

With all due respect, leaving a window open or even cracked is one of those hurricane myths. Google this to find out what it says about leaving a window open.

We have been through 3 hurricanes while living in Central Florida and The Villages is one of the safest places to live. That said, there could be some damage. Power failure, some roof shingles, tree damage, and flooding low areas such as tunnels etc. Hurricanes do sometimes spawn tornadoes and that could be more dangerous than the hurricane itself.

Bottom line, nobody knows for sure where this is going to make landfall---too early to know. By the end of this week, we will have a better idea about the path of Irma.

Clean the bathtub with Clorox and if Irma comes this way fill it with water. Good to flush and drink if need be.

What undies ? Commando mode is always the way to go. [emoji3]

🙂

just tried to find D batteries in Walgreens--none to be had. I have Amazon Prime so was able to order some that will be delivered Thurs. while we are pretty safe where we are I remember when Hugo hit SC which affected people 200 miles inland. so losing power would be a concern. and when Charlie hit Ft. Myers it cut thru central Florida. People who went to Orlando got caught up in it. But over all, we're still safest here.

Hurricane prep
 

Does anyone think we need to get plywood for our windows?

It's unlikely Irma goes into the gulf and then comes at the villages from the west. Less likely it comes from the east.

If it hits the villages it will most likely from south after it loses strength over land.

Imo, No plywood needed.

Irma's path
 

Well, this helps!