[tuccillo]

We are really too far out in time for an accurate projection of where Irma is going but the latest NWS spectral model forecast does shed some light on the issues involved. In many ways this is a similar setup to Hurricane Sandy in that the timing of a short wave from the west is important.

There is a long wave trough in the eastern US at the moment and a short wave coming out of the upper Plains states is simulated to form a cutoff low over the Great Lakes. There is a blocking ridge over the western Atlantic. As this cutoff lifts northward, the steering flow will direct Irma northward with landfall over Delaware/Eastern Shore of Maryland on Sunday September 10. With the path of the hurricane aligned with the north/south coastline, small differences in the path can translate into large differences in where landfall takes place. If the cutoff low lifts out sooner or later (or doesn't form), the path of Irma will be dramatically different. The latest ECMWF model forecast takes a much more southerly route with Irma (with landfall around South Carolina) as it handles the short wave from the west differently (it moves the short wave out much faster). While these global models are run out to 15 days, the real limits on predictability is more like 3-4 days in these situations. The path of Irma is dependent on how well the larger scale flow in the higher latitudes is handled.

[Taltarzac725]

HURRICANE IRMA

I have not watched the Weather Channel this much since 2004-2005. I miss the woman who went up with the people who fly into the storms. A good change from Jim Cantore and crew. http://kstp.com/news/nicole-mitchell/4520122/

[TommyT]

[tuccillo]

Yes, this will be a ratings bonanza for the Weather Channel as we will be seeing this thing bearing down on the east coast for the next week. Start paying serious attention around Wednesday and until there is compelling evidence that it will stay out to sea. New solutions from the NWS spectral model are available every 6 hours and new solutions from the ECMWF spectral code are available every 12 hours.

Originally Posted by Taltarzac725

HURRICANE IRMA

I have not watched the Weather Channel this much since 2004-2005. I miss the woman who went up with the people who fly into the storms. A good change from Jim Cantore and crew. http://kstp.com/news/nicole-mitchell/4520122/

[Sandtrap328]

Go to the app store and just pick a hurricane tracker app from the choices (either free or paid) and put it on your device.

Works good. The tracks are all from NOAA and the National Hurricane Center.

[JoMar]

Which ever way it goes the surfers will have a fun time

[justjim]

Remember last years hurricane Matthew? They had mandatory evacuation along several Florida eastern coastal counties including Brevard county where Port Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, and Kennedy Space Center are located. There was virtually no damage in Brevard county but the hurricane did a lot of damage further north along the coast of Florida. It is difficult to track a hurricane even up to the last three days before it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Florida. Irma's current location is too far away to know where it "might" make landfall in the United States.

[Bogie Shooter]

buy you water today

[tuccillo]

The latest 00Z runs of the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes are looking closer to each other than previous cycles with the NWS code agreeing with the more southerly track of the ECMWF code. The ensembles from the NWS code look pretty consistent through 144 hours so I would put that at the current limit of believability. Both codes show landfall around the South Carolina/North Carolina border area on Monday morning September 11. The forecast length at landfall is about 200 hours - that is really too far out for much confidence, however.

The ridge over the western Atlantic has stayed strong which is forcing a southerly route. The associated trough in the eastern US starts to lift out on Friday September 8 - the ECMWF code appears to have been more consistent in this regard.

We need to wait a few of more days to have more confidence in the model solutions in the time frame of a possible strike on the east coast. The trend for a more southerly route is troubling but we probably aren't in the picture.

[villages07]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

The latest 00Z runs of the NWS and ECMWF spectral codes are looking closer to each other than previous cycles with the NWS code agreeing with the more southerly track of the ECMWF code. The ensembles from the NWS code look pretty consistent through 144 hours so I would put that at the current limit of believability. Both codes show landfall around the South Carolina/North Carolina border area on Monday morning September 11. The forecast length at landfall is about 200 hours - that is really too far out for much confidence, however.



The ridge over the western Atlantic has stayed strong which is forcing a southerly route. The associated trough in the eastern US starts to lift out on Friday September 8 - the ECMWF code appears to have been more consistent in this regard.



We need to wait a few of more days to have more confidence in the model solutions in the time frame of a possible strike on the east coast. The trend for a more southerly route is troubling but we probably aren't in the picture.

Tuccillo....thanks for sharing your expertise, especially potential impacts here in TV. I find your explanations technical but very understandable. Let's all hope it turns out to sea and doesn't affect the east coast.


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[Schaumburger]

Originally Posted by villages07

Tuccillo....thanks for sharing your expertise, especially potential impacts here in TV. I find your explanations technical but very understandable. Let's all hope it turns out to sea and doesn't affect the east coast.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I echo villages07 comments...my flight back to Chicago is Saturday night, 9/9 so I am keeping an eye on the situation with Irma. I also hope Irma turns out to sea!

[Abby10]

Originally Posted by Schaumburger

I echo villages07 comments...my flight back to Chicago is Saturday night, 9/9 so I am keeping an eye on the situation with Irma. I also hope Irma turns out to sea!

I hear ya, Schaumburger. We are looking to fly down on Sept 12 to enjoy 3 weeks with the good folks in TV and will be watching carefully how this all plays out on this end as well.

In the meantime, praying for safe travels for your return home.

[Sgroemm]

After living through Superstorm Sandy, Irma or any of Sandy's other friends are not welcome here on the Jersey Shore!

[Dan9871]

Ryan Maue's latest simulation of Irma shows it turning back into the Atlantic without making US landfall. Based on latest data from ECWMF (European weather service). Of course this could all change in the next day or two...

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[tuccillo]

The NCEP global spectral model still has landfall on the east coast based on on 12Z cycle. It is still way too early to make any reliable predications.

Originally Posted by Dan9871

Ryan Maue's latest simulation of Irma shows it turning back into the Atlantic without making US landfall. Based on latest data from ECWMF (European weather service). Of course this could all change in the next day or two...

Twitter