[Bjeanj]

Ok, I have a question, as I'm from Indiana and only been here a couple of years. How does a hurricane go up the middle of Florida? I thought when it went inland, it lost all its "fuel" more or less, which makes it die out. Tuccillo seems the expert here ... Can you help me understand?

[Colts Fan]

Anybody able to suggest what we should expect from a hurricane that would travel over land as far as from the tip of FL to TV? Wouldn't it diminish substantially? I know it is still uncertain as to the path, and that landfall could be closer.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by Bjeanj

Ok, I have a question, as I'm from Indiana and only been here a couple of years. How does a hurricane go up the middle of Florida? I thought when it went inland, it lost all its "fuel" more or less, which makes it die out. Tuccillo seems the expert here ... Can you help me understand?

Originally Posted by Colts Fan

Anybody able to suggest what we should expect from a hurricane that would travel over land as far as from the tip of FL to TV? Wouldn't it diminish substantially? I know it is still uncertain as to the path, and that landfall could be closer.

Worst case scenario would be for it to go all the way up the length of Florida slowly...while sucking moisture from both the Gulf AND Atlantic.

Just imagine rain like Houston received...from Miami to Jax.

While us in the middle of the state are not as vulnerable as say a flood prone location like Houston/NOLA/Miami/Etc....it could still be a nightmare.

Most people think of the wind damage from a hurricane, but it's the flooding...that causes much more damage and fatalities.

Hurricane Preparedness - Hazards

Heavy Rainfall & Inland Flooding

Tropical cyclones often produce widespread, torrential rains in excess of 6 inches, which may result in deadly and destructive floods. In fact, flooding is the major threat from tropical cyclones for people living inland. Flash flooding, defined as a rapid rise in water levels, can occur quickly due to intense rainfall. Longer term flooding on rivers and streams can persist for several days after the storm. When approaching water on a roadway, always remember Turn Around Don't Drown.

Rainfall amounts are not directly related to the strength of tropical cyclones but rather to the speed and size of the storm, as well as the geography of the area. Slower moving and larger storms produce more rainfall. In addition, mountainous terrain enhances rainfall from a tropical cyclone.

[Carl in Tampa]

Originally Posted by justjim

The biggest reason to not panic is to remember where The Villages is located. Those living along coastal areas evacuate to our area. Twice we had friends and relatives over from Brevard County and we had a great "Hurricane party". The last was hurricane Matthew last year in the first week of October. Unfortunately, we will miss the party as we will be in Illinois for wife's high school class reunion. However, our home will still be available if needed.

Folks, for Florida, the center of the state is the safe place.

Here is how you prepare for a hurricane.

1. Have an adequate supply of drinking water. Depending upon how many people are in your household, go out and buy a few cases of bottled water. Enough for several days. Just in case.

2. Have an adequate supply of canned food for the entire family for several days.

3. Plan on losing household electricity. Have some candles, and perhaps a Coleman camp lantern for illumination. Have a couple of flashlights and fresh batteries.

Have a battery operated radio for the likelihood that you will lose cable or satellite TV due to losing electricity.

You can go for days without electricity. Pretend you are out camping in the woods, except you have a nice house to stay in instead of a tent.

The odds are you will still be able to cook on your gas stoves.

(I have camp stoves and a propane gas grill. Cooking is no problem. Mainly I heat up soups and other canned goods.)

4. Fill up the gas tanks on your car and your golf cart. After a few days you may need to go get water or groceries.

You can handle this.

[patfla06]

Originally Posted by ColdNoMore

Worst case scenario would be for it to go all the way up the length of Florida slowly...while sucking moisture from both the Gulf AND Atlantic.

Just imagine rain like Houston received...from Miami to Jax.

While us in the middle of the state are not as vulnerable as say a flood prone location like Houston/NOLA/Miami/Etc....it could still be a nightmare.

Most people think of the wind damage from a hurricane, but it's the flooding...that causes much more damage and fatalities.

Hurricane Preparedness - Hazards

This is exactly the scenario we would worry about.

Being inland you obviously don't get storm surge like the coasts. But if you get rain stalled will be a big problem. Yes going over land helps but Florida is flat and doesn't slow it as much.

Wind over 100 mph is a frightening thought.
All those loose items in your yards should be taken in.
(A reason I don't like all those rocks people put in their
Landscaping).

Praying it does not hit us or anyone else.

[tuccillo]

Once over land, the increase in boundary layer friction and less evaporation of water from the surface will begin to weaken the circulation. However, there will still be a lot of rainfall and wind. At some point, it will no longer have hurricane force winds.

Originally Posted by Bjeanj

Ok, I have a question, as I'm from Indiana and only been here a couple of years. How does a hurricane go up the middle of Florida? I thought when it went inland, it lost all its "fuel" more or less, which makes it die out. Tuccillo seems the expert here ... Can you help me understand?

[tuccillo]

Yes, the wind speeds will start dropping once over land. If this does happen, the NHC is pretty good at estimating when the winds will drop below cat 1 hurricane levels.

Originally Posted by Colts Fan

Anybody able to suggest what we should expect from a hurricane that would travel over land as far as from the tip of FL to TV? Wouldn't it diminish substantially? I know it is still uncertain as to the path, and that landfall could be closer.

[tuccillo]

The 00Z runs of the NWS and ECMWF models have essentially the same solution; Irma coming up the spine of FL, albeit the ECMWF code is about 12 hours faster than the NWS code. The official forecast from the NHC at 126 hours is very close to the NWS model with the position just south of the FL keys (2AM Sunday). One saving grace is the typical track errors at that forecast length are 200 miles. Staying out over water in the Atlantic, however, is appearing to be less likely. The forecasts from Wednesday onward should start to become much more reliable. Essentially, the NHC only puts out a 5 day track forecast (with an envelope) because there is little or no accuracy beyond that point. The global numerical model is run out to 15 days 4 times per day - often there is not a lot of skill beyond about 5 or 6 days, depending on the situation. Ensembles, based on slightly altered initial states, are run to provide some feel for when accuracy starts to diminish.

Here is the latest track, with an envelope, from the NHC.

HURRICANE IRMA

[tuccillo]

The 06Z NWS Spectral model run takes Irma up the east coast of FL and then makes landfall in SC. Still way too early for any accuracy on the track.

[fl boomer]

I lived on the East Coast of Florida during all the hurricanes in 2004, and I have a few suggestions for a "just in case" scenario. Clean out your freezer and throw away all that frozen food that you'll probably never use this week. Trying to get the smell out of a freezer after no power for several days is very difficult. Clean out your refrigerator too.

MAKE ICE!! You can buy the plastic Blue Ice containers that you freeze & use in your coolers or even put water in metal pans & freeze it. I keep several of the Blue Ice packs on hand, & only put them in the freezer during Hurricane season. You can use these to keep your food frozen longer. I like ice in my drinks, so put ice cubes in freezer bags. They won't last as long if the power goes off, but there's nothing better than an ice cold drink when it's hot & you don't have power.

Cell phones may not work, nor your home phone if it is connected to you internet/tv provider. A land line phone works best so you can connect to friends and relatives to let them know you're OK.

If you have a bath tub, put water in it in case you don't have water available. It can be used for flushing toilets, etc. Of course, most of the homes in TV do not have these.

Ladies, remember, if there is no power, then your hair dryer, flat iron, curling iron, etc. will not work!

Remove any furniture lawn ornaments, etc that you have on your porch, open lanai, etc. & put in your garage or house.

Lower your flag pole or remove your flag....in a strong wind, it will be in tatters.

Check any of the Hurricane Preparedness sites for additional information.

Let's hope we get "lucky"

[Chi33]

I was wondered from those with experience what the chances of flooding is? I feel our windows are strongly rated, but unlike from where I am from, there is no 2nd floor homes.

[jsw14]

I'll be gas'in up my Kipor Digital Generator. Run's for 8 hours on 5 gal's of gas. Plus we have a Freeplay Bay-Gen radio self powered. Just wind it up & it will play for 30 minute's. No battery's needed!!

I'll be fire'in-up the generator today, just too warm it up. Hopefully we won't have to use it....

[affald]

Fill any empty space in your refrigerator and freezer with ice. Fill plastic containers 3/4 to allow for expansion.

[patfla06]

Irma is now a Category 5. Right now winds of 175 mph.

They still are speculating on the parh.

We all need to watch this storm and have a plan in place.

I have never evacuated in 20 years but I would in a
Category 5!

[Lottoguy]

Just fill up your bath tub if you have to. It's fresh water!