A One Handed Meteorologist For My Kingdom!
 

My working for nephew is a meteorologist NOAA when he was in college and I asked him to give me a weather report for my interstate travel home he was precise and absolute. Once he graduated and began to work in his field these "qualifiers"popped up mostly , probable 50% chance. I asked him why the change when he was working for Accu weather. He replied because he had rich clients who wanted weather forecast before they sailed their yachts.
Please hire one handed meteorologists:D

Increasing forecast length equates to increasing uncertainty. For example, I can tell you with 100% certainty that it will not rain in the next 10 mins at my house (notice there is a time and space qualifier). Time and space are linked. Also, some regimes are more stable then others and this leads to more certainty in the forecast. Fortunately, we can tell which regimes, to a pretty good degree, are inherently less predictable. Forecasting is based on models that solve nonlinear PDEs as an initial value problem, via numerical methods that approximate the continuous equations, where the initial state has uncertainties and the system is inherently chaotic. Plus some of the physics are not well understood and are therefore difficult to accurately model.

All forecasts have either an implicit or explicit probability associated with them. On average, there is little deterministic skill beyond 4-5 days for precip forecasts. It is better in the cold season than the warm season. Seasonal (3 month) outlooks show some skill for regional (time and space again) above or below average precip and temperatures. There are some biases in the forecast the public hears. Forecasts you hear on TV (via the interpretation of model results) tend to be "wetter" than they should be. Progress in modeling tends to be slow and incremental but the increase in the fidelity of forecasts compared to the 70s is nothing short of amazing.

With respect to tropical storm forecasting and tracking, in my opinion forget the "spaghetti" lines of the various computer models, and pay attention to the European model track.

You are better off looking at the Hurricane Center's "envelope" of possible positions with time as it reflects a large amount of information, including ensemble runs. Looking at just one model is not a good idea.

Or just look out your window at the cloud formation and compare it with how those old bones are reacting:D Yep my knee aches its going to rain

Hmmm, there could be a position for you at the Hurricane Center in Miami ;-)

that is why you are not a meteorologist, those are projections for the center of the storm. some of the worst storm effects are on the sides of the storm where turbulence can generate tornadoes and other wind effects....we were well within that zone in all but one projection...the storm is way more than a group of thin lines :)

I grew up in Fla and have lived here for 53 years. TV meteorologists live for hurricane season. It is necessary to be prepared but yes they are HUGE alarmists

yes
 

Plus they keep interrupting my favorite television shows with the same old repeat weather garbage. tell us three or four times then get off the air and come back on later please.

I don't pretend to be any kind of a weather expert. That said, I lived in coastal SC for 12 years and here for 6 years. And as I stated earlier, I tend to pay attention to depressions and named storms. In my experience, the European model (ECMWF) has been consistently the best and most accurate storm forecast model. It was updated in 2006 with the most advanced technology available. Our National Weather Service begs for the funds to upgrade their system to no avail.
I agree, the cone of uncertainty is what we should pay attention to, but a little research will prove the European model is the standard bearer in tropical storm forecasting.

I have undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology and developed numerical prediction models for the National Weather Service so I will chime in. The ECMWF model has been slightly ahead of the other national centers on statistics such as the 500mb anomaly coefficient but like most stories in the media that people feast on that doesn't tell the whole story. The extent of the National Weather Service's obligations is much wider than ECMWF. The National Weather Service is currently soliciting bids for a new infusion of computer power (and I am working on the procurement) so don't believe what you read about not getting upgrades - it simply isn't true.

As previously posted, the prudent thing to do is look at the National Hurricane Center's forecast as the results of many models go into that forecast. On any particular day, any model can be good or bad. Often, different model forecasts are closer to each other than the real world. And, by the way, ECMWF has made many improvements to their forecast model, both resolution, physics, and the generation of initial conditions, as have the other national centers, since 2006. 2006 is an eternity ago.

That's great news about the long over due upgrade being worked on. 2006 was the year when the ECMWF was upgraded and of course there have been many since as you stated. I have high regard for the scientists and meteorologists who work tirelessly to provide us with potential live saving information and forecasts. They deserve the best software/hardware available. In my opinion, they should have had that long ago, an eternity ago even. Thank you for your contribution to this project. For everyones safety, I hope the upgrade is a success.

ECMWF was founded in the 70s and has installed new computer systems on a regular basis - typically every few years or so. There is nothing magic about 2006. The National Weather Service similarly does computer system upgrades every 2-3 years, and has been doing so for a very long time. They just installed a new system last year and will be installing another new system in the first half of 2017 and another system in 2019, under an existing contract. There aren't any "long over due upgrades" - they upgrade on a regular basis as HPC technology warrants. One can argue that the size of the systems should be larger but the frequency of upgrades is pretty much in synch with what makes sense to do based on technology changes. The system are typically tens of thousands of CPUs.

tuccillo so let me get this straight, your putting your undergraduate and graduate degrees up against my arthritic knee:D