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There doesn’t appear to be much, if any, impact from anthropogenic climate change on hurricanes. Our ability to observe hurricanes improved in the early 60s when weather satellites went up. Therefore, the reliable record is only for the last 60 years. Some of the climate modeling suggests that the future may bring a reduction in the number of hurricanes but those that do form may be stronger.
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See post #36. The NHC updates their probabilities frequently. We will have a much better idea 24-48 hours in advance. We are still about 84 hours out. You should not focus exclusively on the track of the center of the circulation since the wind field can extend out a considerable distance. Regardless, the NHC’s average track error at 4 days is about 150 miles.
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Milton
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Got notice this AM that Tuesdays Jet Blue flight to Orlando is in Jeopardy. On another note, is it a coincidence that the Villages self appointed weather expert is notoriously absent from this important weather related thread?
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Not always true.
I thought being inland 100 miles would be safe and sound in NC. Our first season we had Hurricane Irene decide to stop right on top of us at tropical storm status. We ended up needing a new roof and work done on some outbuildings. Nearly $30k in damage in 2011. Be safe.
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Not misinformation either. The conclusions are heavily debated (strangely, in my opinion) but the rant cites numbers and facts that can easily be confirmed. Perhaps a response to this would be to post some of the reputable counter-studies. (another option is to ignore the user... that approach works well for me) Please don't respond to the bad behavior with more bad behavior. Besides the fact that two wrongs don't make a right, history has shown that response will only result in a thread being closed or deleted. |
Reality: Stay Safe
This is a great time to invite any neighbors along the coast you may know to ride out this storm. Hudson, Crystal River, Newport Richey, Tarpon Springs, Tampa, and Homosassa all seem to have a fair chance of impact. Fill up your camping bladders or water bottles and make sure you have some low maintenance meal supplies and plans. Move all your outdoor items in. Recharge those rechargeable items you may need and fill up your gas tanks. Above all, stay safe.
This storm could produce surges not seen since 1921 (above 10 feet). Many spaghetti models do not look favorable to our area. Irrelevant to the impact zone, it is forecasted to be at least a Category 3, enhanced by a warm gulf the massive preexisting low which is directly in its path. Inner pressure is dropping at a fantastic rate as the storm became a category 1 at 2 PM. The storm is at 1003MB. For those not necessarily storm savvy, low pressure and warm water feed storms and only increase dangerous conditions. Be prepared now! |
Informative Florida Division of Emergency Management site.
Exhaustive list of great storm resources is from FDEM. Including links to your local county EOC. Tropical Storm Milton | Florida Disaster |
Here is a video, at the end they explain how the hurricane deductible works
https://youtu.be/0gibhWP4hA8?si=PoTwxeK-0UmWUCly Quote:
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