There are about 10,000 people turning 65 every day and TV only needs to sell homes to 7 of them to maintain their current level of sales. Keep an eye on Bradford if they put them up as fast as Chitty Chatty they are not concerned.

I agree. Most pre-owned houses I have viewed are overpriced. A decline in values will be a good thing.

When the market was straight lining up all my acquaintances were High Fiving and it wasn't 30% in. But all of a sudden the silence is deafening. I'll give you free advice from my broker who I never listen too - actually he thinks he is my broker. Don't pull out - it will pass. Of course he doesn't make a dime if my money is not his firm.

Real Estate Value movement
 

Thankfully, my lot was very low, $12K, and then we built a Begonia, with a little stretch, but I couldn't have done this house without the low plot value. So I do believe that the expensive lots will not move and will be reduced. The house has a predetermined margin, not idea what it is, so the plot can be a large profit maker. I suspect that the lots will sit for a while and then get reduced, while the developer slows progress by finishing what has been started on spec. But that is just south of 466.

What may be more impactful is the potential increase in mortality rate north of 466, (not desirable, just predictive) such that beneficiaries who now cant afford to move into parent's house, will opt for a quick sale. Or they can sell their working home, and move into their parent's home for a low cost. Either way, there is a least one house for sale for every house which loses it owners. So the three major model inputs would be increase in mortality rate increasing existing houses for sale and percent going directly to market and the reduction in Fair Market Value to move the house, slowing / reducing new house sales and or profitability.

Friends of ours have been looking for a year or so, waiting for a steal of an existing house. Then during this winter, they were convinced that the best deal is a custom house, now, they will be back to looking for a steal. No worries, they are mostly dreamers.

but I also think that the developer will stop building spec houses, and move back to custom designers, commit to them by buying the plot, and let the market come back to them.

sportsguy musings

Is it possible that if sales slow, the Developer might have time to look into the Sinkhole and Dry Lake problem in the Villages. I'm surprised anyone would by a house from the D if they knew the extent of the Sinkhole and Dry Lakes problems. I live near those condemned houses, and I CANNOT purchase a meaningful 'sinkhole' insurance policy.

Google the following for examples:
"sinkhole at 733 Winifred Way" and "sinkhole at 17092 McLawren Terrace" and "sinkhole at 2536 Botello Ave",
the last one is for sale now: 2536 BOTELLO AVE
Ranch Home:Stetson III
3 bed •2 bath •1575 sqft
Village Alhambra
$234,900
VLS#229297
there are more, but you get the idea, watch out for those waterfront views.
I heard there is a dry lake in Fenney, but that the D has attempted to fix it.

This is the least of anyone's worries at this point

For limited time only will include no extra cost up to a 12 month supply of toilet paper it will be 1 360 sheet roll..
Villages marketing like when Katie Bells was promoted as your restaurant

Don't worry your children may get the same price you pay for it 15 years from now

I like your attitude Craig, the villages is a marvelous place to retire to. Cost of living here is low and the neighbors are fantastic my life in retirement couldn’t be better. :welcome:

[QUOTE=
I heard there is a dry lake in Fenney, but that the D has attempted to fix it.[/QUOTE]
The so called dry lakes throughout The Villages were never really lakes. They were dug to act as drainage ditches when all the land was leveled for homes. There are a few "real" lakes within TV which you can see on earlier maps, i.e. Lake Spencer in Glenbrook.

People die here everyday, it takes a year or better to settle estates. Our preowned was estate with one child, by the time house could go on the market it was 11 months. That was 4 years ago.