Real Estate Prices with excess supply

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  #1  
Old 09-09-2007, 12:02 PM
union union is offline
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Default Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Hi Everyone, As you probably have heard real estate is in a big downturn -- in fact many homebuilders are facing their toughest times yet. Check out BZH stock listing down from 80. There has been a tremendous amount of new home building in the area. What is the general feeling about home prices in the Villages and will charges for amenities be burdensome to pay for the long term debt issued? Thank you for your thoughts -- a potential homebuyer.
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Old 09-09-2007, 12:51 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Hi,
There are a number of threads on this forum covering recent prices etc.. If you drill down you'll find them. We're getting ready to buy and my take is that TV IS dealing on their new homes. Their deals are dragging down resale prices notably. Also, purchasing a resale thru MLS is going to permit more flexibility on pricing. Good news for buyers in general I would say!

On the flip side, as an owner/seller, over the long term, I think The Villages is a good investment because of all the many desireable features lacking in many other communities. No matter how low the prices go, they will recover sooner at TV I believe.

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Old 09-09-2007, 02:15 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Thanks, my concerns with developments are-- if amenities are built and not all the property is sold who covers the remaining assessments on unsold property and can they be reallocated to existing home owners under any circumstance? Are there any circumstances that additional assessments can be levied? If the property developer is on the hook what happens if he walks away? Does anyone know what the total debt of the development is verses the current assessed value of the property?? -- The Villages is a nice place but you should always know what you are buying.
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Old 09-09-2007, 07:40 PM
darbyduff darbyduff is offline
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Captain -

We just found the same thing in TV. There are really good deals to be had. Drove around Duval, for instance, and there is just about every type of home you may want that have fab. deals attached. Lots of just built ones. But, for instance, the house across from ours was just put on the market (new) and in 4 days there was a buyer. Not that they will all be snapped up like that, but people are realizing the good deals.
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Old 09-10-2007, 01:07 PM
az2fla az2fla is offline
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Hi Darbyduff,

Just spoke with a colleague who is moving to TV within the month (or so). Like you, he will be purchasing a new build from the developer. He had his Realtor, in fact Realtors, show him many resales. He checked out both VLS and MLS and determined that the resales were currently very overpriced due to the discounts being offered by the developer. Until those with houses to sell price them to market conditions, they will have strangers marching through their homes for quite a long time only to see the buyers doing what you did.....BUYING NEW.

So happy for you that things have worked out better than you could have expected. Now I can't sign off without commenting on that great Broncos' victory yesterday. How exciting! Even the television play-by-play crew said that they wouldn't be able to get the kick off in time....wrong! Jason still has the leg. Lodo must have been hopping last night....spent way to many evenings down there. Take care.
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Old 09-10-2007, 01:21 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

I've been looking at 2 sites lately, one the official Villages website's pre-owned homes, and the other the Sumter County tax assesor office website ( I found the address here).
Very interestingly, you can plug in an address (if it's in Sumter Co) and get LOTS of information including the names of the owners, the general design of the home (sq ft under air, etc) and the sale prices of the homes for each sale.
I've noticed homes that were bought within a year or so actually selling (asking) for LESS than the price paid last year. Homes bought earlier have appreciated.
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Old 09-10-2007, 02:39 PM
az2fla az2fla is offline
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

SteveFromNY ... The Sumter County Tax Assessor website is a helpful site SteveFromNY. I would have to say that almost any home purchase in FL, CA, NV, AZ and a few other markets is upside down or very close to flat if that house was purchased from late 2005 to early 2007. It may be ego or foolishness for sellers of resales not to price to market conditions. Many folk watched in awe as the value of their homes escalated over the past few years. They want to sell now for what their home was valued at 18 months ago....ain't gonna happen (as they say). The builders and developers are not in love with their products; thus, lowering the prices is not an emotional factor for them. Homeowners need to learn the same lesson or they'll be getting even less next year than they could this year if priced appropriately. In The Villages it's tough competition to sell a resale. Sellers must compete with the discounts offered by the developer as well as reasonably priced MLS and VLS. When the rebound occurs, prices will rise sooner in TV than elsewhere; that's for sure. Question is: "When will the rebound take place?". Continuing to pay bond, r.e. taxes, utilities, insurance, amenity fees, etc. while holding out for the very last nickel is, indeed, penny wise and dollar foolish. All those expenses plus the downward direction of home prices won't be recouped by stubbornly refusing to price to market. As any earlier poster stated: Beazer Homes sold for much more than the $9.33 it fetches today - that's market conditions at work!
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Old 09-10-2007, 03:22 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Az2FL - I am PAINFULLY aware of the realestate market today! I am selling my "big" house in NY right now. It's been on the market since May and I have adjusted the price down a number of times. I've been looking at the interest being paid for both a 1st and 2nd mort and cannot wait for them to be gone! I could buy a new golf cart every other month with the money I'll be saving!!! ;D

When the house was appreciating every month I didn't mind. At the end of the year I could compare the gain with the expenses and see I was ahead. Now it's like I'm burning the money every month. It hurts.

I have a lot of emotional attachment to my house in NY - been there 24 years and raised 3 children - lot's of memories, But I am not letting that get in the way now. And I don't plan on selling the house in TV anytime soon so it'll all work out in the end!
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Old 09-10-2007, 03:42 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Hang in there, Steve!!
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Old 09-10-2007, 03:48 PM
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SteveFromNY -- You can only gain in TV as long as you have no intention of selling anytime soon. Are you located in upstate NY? I was under the impression that the NYC and suburbs were holding up pretty well with prices and that homes were selling relatively quickly. I'm in AZ and the market got way overheated here. I had intended to put it onto the resale market but other considerations are preventing that for now. When/if I do, in fact, put it up for sale, I'll be pricing below neighborhood comps because when it's time to move, it's time to move and I'll be very satisfied with the return on this investment. And, yes, you have plenty of emotional attachments to the house and that makes it all the more painful.

If Freddie and Fannie (FHA) are permitted to raise the amount of home-loan limits, that would help free up this logjam we find ourselves in right now. Currently, FHA loan limit is set at $417,000. When you consider that you can't get much of a house for that amount in places like California, lower New York State, and many large city metropolitan areas there aren't many lenders willing to touch a higher amount mortgage application right now. Currently, H.R. 1427 would allow Freddie and Fannie to guarantee loans up to $625,000.
With the number of adjustable rate mortgages getting ready to reset over the next six months to a year (or more), having access to lower rates on loans up to $625k could help these families keep their homes and allow movement in the real estate sector to get going again. Contact your legislator and ask him/her to support this bill. My sincerest (and I mean that) best wishes for a quick sale of your NY home.

  #11  
Old 09-10-2007, 03:57 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Thanks!

I'm in NYC (Staten Island) and, upon the advice of my crack realtor, over-priced the house by a large amount.

Wife and I had a number in mind, but greed got us, and we went with his recommendation. We've adjusted downward. We are getting decent action on the home now that's it in a more realistic ballpark, but even here, where the prices are doing OK, there is still a lot of inventory and buyers are moving slooooow! We received requests for re-shows weeks after the 1st show, and offers (LOW ones) weeks after that. Not like the days where people made on the spot offers! It's just taking more time than I wanted, and my problem is I need to work for awhile after the sale if I want to do all the fun things I want to do when I finally get to TV (pavers, palm trees, etc). So this house full of memories is quickly becoming my nightmare!

But I am hanging in there and hopefully will be down there within 1 year.

And thanks for your support!
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Old 09-10-2007, 04:14 PM
az2fla az2fla is offline
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Well, fortunately for you, SteveFromNY, employment is still going well in NYC. And with a pleasant ferry ride from lower Manhattan and Wall Street, Staten Island is like living in the burbs but enjoying the lower real estate tax which NYC offers. Just think: you could be out on Long Island and dealing with much higher monthly real estate taxes. I'm hopeful for that once the financial markets calm down and ladies and gentlemen are assured of their continued employment buying a nice home on Staten Island will be something they'll consider. The Staten Island Frerry - what a nice way to commute to work each morning! The bridge provides a nice view while sitting in traffic, though.

Sorry that New York's ONLY football team lost yesterday to the Broncos. The two New Jersey teams didn't fare any better. Just a little kidding from a kid who once lived in NYC. As Samhass said in a previous posting: "Hang in there".
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Old 09-11-2007, 10:48 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

AZ2FLA - I'm hanging in there. And thanks for the good wishes! You're right about the employment - there are some decent jobs here, and the NYC real estate taxes are lower than the surrounding areas (NYC income taxe helps offset that though)

For a visit the ferry is a must see, but after 20-something years of riding the ferry it loses a bit of its charm. I am now working in NJ and doing a reverse commute, and it still takes an hour each way.


I'm more of a Colts-Dolphins fan. I grew up in Baltimore and loved the Colts. When the Dolphins began and Shula went south, I had mixed feelings. Then the Colts moved, and I'm still partial to them. So I kind of like them both still! :dontknow:
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Old 09-11-2007, 03:01 PM
swrinfla swrinfla is offline
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Union:
A lot earlier in this thread, you expressed a kind of broad concern over the eventual health of this development, querying in general whether there was/is any worry about our developer (often referred to as The Developer) and his commitment and/or potential to run-away-from-it-all.
I think I can wholeheartedly assure you, and I think others on TOTV would agree, The Developer will most definitely not run away. He's built a community of 65,000 or more happy seniors and isn't about to abandon them (or, some would say his very lucrative income!) This IS NOT A FLY-BY-NIGHT type place, and you may feel completely comfortable with its continued viability, regardless of what the housing market is!
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Old 09-11-2007, 04:15 PM
mzmom3 mzmom3 is offline
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

I most certainly would not feel "completely" comfortable with THE DEVELOPER aka The Morse family. Keep your eyes open and listen carefully. Don't be fooled. The Villages is a nice place to live; it is not utopia nor is it run by an altruist.
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