Real Estate Prices with excess supply

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  #16  
Old 10-09-2007, 09:57 PM
union union is offline
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Thanks for the updates, I will be coming down to visit around Christmas and will check in. Does anyone know if lots are developed and not sold if there is a possibility existing owners would have their assessments or fees go up. Who pays for or is responsible for all the loans that the developer has taken out to financing the infrastructure and spec homes? I would not want to be on the hook for more than I thought. Please keep me up on anything you might hear. Thanks, Union
  #17  
Old 10-10-2007, 09:33 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

My view:

If you look at the number of people on this forum (TOTV) you will see that very many of us are non-owners in TV at this time. You can view that as interest. If that many of us are interested enough to spend time on a forum for a development that we do not live in then you can assume that the interest in TV is alive and well.

We (us current non-TVers) will still move into TV in the future despite the slow down. Many of us are just waiting for northern homes to sell at a fair price which may take a few years in some cases but that wont stop the long term goal.

You can rest assured that the Morse family WILL complete TV even if their profit margins go down slightly doing it.
  #18  
Old 10-10-2007, 11:58 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

We did not look at the Villages as an investment property. After retirement we wintered and rented in the Florida Keys, Stuart, Jupiter, Naples and Singer Island for three years, we decided that the Villages was a wonderful place to spend the winters (7 months a year) in our golden years. We have not been disappointed. Most of all, our new friends and neighbors add so much to our lives. The lifestyle, amenities and ambiance here is unparalleled anywhere we have been.

You can be delightfully active seven days or just kick back and enjoy the sweet clean air and sunshine. We golf, play softball, ride our Harley, visit friends and love every minute here.

We are here for the distance run and really are not bothered by real estate market fluctuations. If you are a speculator who bought high, wait it out. If you are thinking about buying, now is the time because when the market reverses, it will, you won't be able to get these homes at the current bargain prices. If you want to enjoy life to the fullest....this is it.

We have found the developer to be a class act. Our friends who were impacted by the tornado have nothing but accolades for the assistance he has given. Being modestly familiar with builders, I can say that without hesitation, The Villages is the most responsive when it comes to hassle free warranty work and followup. The construction here is superior to anything I've seen in other developments. I guess you can always find someone who disagrees but that is human nature and not the consensus.

  #19  
Old 10-10-2007, 01:28 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

The earlier comments in this thread indicate that during September prices were down from 2005-2006 levels. Now that another month has passed, anyone know whether prices are holding low, moving lower, inching upward? Also, do you think the developer is "dealing" on new home prices-- other than the "...by November 5th..." offer I received, which gives 10% of any Ranch/Designer/Premier price to be used toward furniture or golf carts. Well, that's not exactly Give, but it's their offer. Also, when TV quotes a monthly amenity fee, is there some other fee tacked on that I should ask about? Other than the bond? Today I'm making calls to find a rental for the last week of October. Any recommendations for a good realtor? Thanks!
  #20  
Old 10-10-2007, 09:30 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Having spent weeks,days and hours looking at resales & new homes, etc.,in TV my wife and I decided on new because most resales seemed overpriced compared to the costs and discounts of new.

Until the resellers rethink and lower the prices, homes are going to sit for the most part. It might be wise for them to wait till 2009/10 or later to put it on the market if they need to get the most out of it.

As for myself we own a beach front shore house in Ocean City, NJ. In the fall of 2006 were offered 3.2 M and said no thanks. Now that same house when we tried to sell it this year having gotten tired of it got offered 2.1 M.

So it's gonna sit awhile.
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  #21  
Old 10-11-2007, 06:31 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

When comparing the new and resale homes be sure not to overlook all the up grades and additional work that has been put into the resale home. Some of the new ones are basic and it could cost lots of $$$ to put in needed items. Also check the quality. We bought a resale and found many additional items included. Just make sure you are comparing apples to apples.
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  #22  
Old 10-11-2007, 08:12 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

So true, Sandy. You can spend a fortune making your new home a home. Landscaping, window treatments, gutters, pavers, surge protection....the list goes on. In a preowned home many of those items are done, bonds may be paid, and builders closing has been paid.
Your first year in a new home will be accompanied by the loud sucking noise of money flowing out of your wallet!!
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  #23  
Old 10-12-2007, 11:44 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Another thing to consider as well, is the bond. I've heard the bond in Duval is in the $20,000 range. In Ashland, near Palmer, the bond was only $5000. As you mentioned, the landscaping is a big thing too. It takes years for the landscaping to be come established.
  #24  
Old 10-14-2007, 10:10 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Thanks, good information - trying to pick the bottom of the market is not always the best thing to do but from what I have read recently we have another round of rate resets that will in many causes double mortgage payments next year. My guess is that about Sept of next year we will be close to the bottom. I notice from reading replies that there are a lot of renters in TV. This is also a sign that many homes were purchased on spec. which when the mortgages are reset along with the non-owner homestead added property tax will make them very non profitable to owners giving them incentive to sell. As you can see from the previous entry there are other developments in the Central Florida area in the same situation. Florida is notorious for boom and bust cycles in real estate dating back to the 1930s looks like we just have to work through one more. Hold in there and we will get through it. Please keep us posted on new developments in TV.
  #25  
Old 10-14-2007, 10:14 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Union....don't know if I would equate rentals in Villages with spec investors. Many people buy homes here several years in advance of retirement and rent it out in the interim to cover expenses until they move here more permanently. Also, purchasing (new) requires a 20% down payment which will scare off pure speculators. TV IS much more renter friendly than most developments, I believe. I had looked at Solivita and they put restrictions on rentals...had to be a minimum of 6 months.
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  #26  
Old 10-14-2007, 10:56 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

There are great buys to be had .We just purchase a Camden II for $230,000 and will receive $23,000 in free furniture. Can't wait.
  #27  
Old 10-14-2007, 11:02 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Quote:
Originally Posted by villages07
Union....don't know if I would equate rentals in Villages with spec investors. Many people buy homes here several years in advance of retirement and rent it out in the interim to cover expenses until they move here more permanently. Also, purchasing (new) requires a 20% down payment which will scare off pure speculators.
I agree with Villages07 that rentals in TV are not necessarily caused by spec investors. As she mentioned, some people buy in advance of retirement. Also, there are many buyers who use their homes only seasonally and rent the rest of the time.

As far as trying to "time the market", I was a real estate broker for many years, and I've noticed that the market usually doesn't bottom out and then stay flat. It is like a bouncing ball, it hits bottom and bounces back up. As Union said, the real estate market is notorious for cycles. By the time the general public has been advised by the media that the market has bottomed out and is starting to rise, the smart investors have purchased and are waiting for the inevitable boom. It is all a cycle.
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  #28  
Old 10-14-2007, 11:35 AM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply



Those are very good points. It is always difficult to say how long a downturn will last and many times its turned around before you know it. According to what I have read this has the potential to be fairly severe if fact much more severe than in the early '90's when the government set up the RTC to liquidate properties like developments for pennies on the dollar - you probably remember that. One thing I dont understand if anyone knows. When a developer spends hundreds of millions to build infrastructure and amenities like golf courses how is that paid for if homes dont sell. They typically issue bonds and borrow from banks to raise the capital -- just the interest on those loans must be staggering. If I purchase a home am I responsible, do I know exactly the most I will have to pay??? Can they raise maintenance or property tax?? I would like to know how this works from residences of TV. I have never bought in a development but have heard some pretty awful stories (not in TV). My family lives in Ocala so I may move down there but I am not sure I want to take on the liabilities of a development without knowing the most I would have to pay. Does anyone know?????
  #29  
Old 10-14-2007, 12:57 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

Quote:
Originally Posted by mzmom3
I most certainly would not feel "completely" comfortable with THE DEVELOPER aka The Morse family. Keep your eyes open and listen carefully. Don't be fooled. The Villages is a nice place to live; it is not utopia nor is it run by an altruist.
Glad to see SOMEBODY out there has a firm grasp on REALITY and is not totally overawed with all the "fairy dust" (aka: Disneyland for Adults!!!!!) floating around here. "The Family" is in this for ONE thing...$$$$$$ Get real people and quit buying into the "Utopia" theme they want you to believe. Like we really live in a "Gated Community"....yea right!!!
  #30  
Old 10-14-2007, 01:34 PM
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Default Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply

[quote=az2fla ]
Hi Darbyduff,

Just spoke with a colleague who is moving to TV within the month (or so). Like you, he will be purchasing a new build from the developer. He had his Realtor, in fact Realtors, show him many resales. He checked out both VLS and MLS and determined that the resales were currently very overpriced due to the discounts being offered by the developer. Until those with houses to sell price them to market conditions, they will have strangers marching through their homes for quite a long time only to see the buyers doing what you did.....BUYING NEW.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

REGARDING THE ABOVE QUOTE: I have to jump in here and put in my 2 cents worth regarding resales. You talk about resales being OVERPRICED and emphasized that until the resellers get real they'll have a lot of strangers through their homes....On behalf of most of us who ARE those resellers, let me say that MOST of us have put a considerable amount of time, money and effort into improving our homes and lots from what the developers sells. We basically bought a "shell" and have had to bring it up to our personal standards at great time and expense. Do we want to recoup those expenses???? You betcha!!!! In NO way do I think the resales are all overpriced. I hope that all you people out there buying the "good deals" new from TV developers can see through all the hype and realize that you NEVER get "something for nothing"...ie: FREE furniture!!!! Consider the costs of putting in even DECENT landscaping instead of the cheap weedy crap that comes with the house, blinds on the windows, fans, painting all of the concrete (ALL concrete in TV is stained when you buy and gets worse over time...no warranty covers concrete), flooring & upgrading in your lanai (or you'll be overrun by bugs and geckos taking up residence there...and INSIDE your house when you leave the doors open), painting (white is sooooo blah and institutionalizing), upgrading all the flooring in the house to something that doesn't fall apart, re-caulking any area where water is (ie: all ceramic areas)....I think we're up to the $10K + now that we've put into our house since moving in. NOW...consider the BONDS on the new homes. I'll bet you dollars to donuts that any of you who have recently purchased a NEW home in TV or are about to are looking at a bond in the neighborhood of $28,000.00 !!!! Right???? The bond on homes built and sold in 2005 is in the neighborhood of $10,000.00 to $12,000.00. NOW we're up to about a $24,000.00 difference in price from new to 2 year old pre-owned AND that's NOT putting a price on the hassle of all the calls to Home Warranty and Contractors to come and do the work...and then come back and re-do the work...and then you call again and get a message that says, "...I'm sorry, the number you have dialed has been disconnected..." WHOA, surprise, surprise, the guy has gone out of business and all your expensive, long awaited for, new landscaping is dying. Oh well, back to the phone and checkbook???? No, I don't think so.

To ALL future Village Homeowners: THINK about ALL your options and ALL your expenses, BEFORE you buy new. Remember the ole "Caveat Emptor" or in plain English..."Buyer Beware".

I'm definitely NOT saying that The Villages is not a WONDERFUL place to live, because it is...I'm just saying that what all the Realtors and Ads say is true..."You are buying a LIFESTYLE". In order to provide you with all the amenities of that "Lifestyle" something has to give and that "something" is a quality home. Soooooo check out a previously owned home and buy peace of mind and your free time and quality upgrades from a previous homeowner who loved living here and who has already put in all the quality and upgrades that you're going to have to put in within the first few months plus, you won't have to put up with all the hassles of getting it done.

Are pre-owned homes overpriced????? No, I don't think so...in the whole scheme of things...THEY are the TRUE BARGAINS here. Consider that you're getting all the extra "owner installed quality & upgrades", and the fact that a lot of them even come furnished (free furniture?) AND with a golf cart (free golf cart?)...now THAT'S a BARGAIN!!!!!!!

AND...don't forget that in the case of "most" previously-owned homes...they are previously-LOVED homes. Some of us are selling because of reasons beyond our control...like ailing & dying family members (parents) up north that we have to go back to and take care of. We put the extra money and care into our homes thinking we were going to be "Frogs" (here till we croaked!!!) We're not out to make a $$ killing...those were the people who sold & moved OUT 2 years ago...we're just trying to recoup what we've spent (MINUS the sales commission even).

God Bless and Good Luck to all of you.
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