[Kazmi]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Good question. The issue is what is going in with the larger scale flow well north of the storm. With Irma, there was a substantial blocking ridge over the western Atlantic which maintained a southern track. With Maria, the longer term model solutions suggest a deep trough in the western US with ridges in the eastern US and over the Atlantic at about 55W. [B]The weakness in between the ridges may allow Maria to curve north and miss the US[/B].

Jose's position and speed heading north?

[$EGeownz]

Has all the electrical power been restored @ The Villages? I have a new portable generator capable of running everything in a house and then some.Prior to Irma I was thinking of selling it w/my house here in CT. when I come down, due to many stating the Villages hasn't lost power [I]since for ever [/but now I don't know.

[tuccillo]

Yes, some of the lower heights in the upper levels, say 500 millibars, is due to Jose. However, a ridge building in the eastern US is simulated to form regardless of Jose. The simulations are still pretty far out in time.

Originally Posted by Kazmi

Jose's position and speed heading north?

[Schaumburger]

Hope Maria turns out to be a fish storm.

From The Sound of Music: Lyrics Excerpt: How Do You Solve A Problem Like Maria

Music: Richard Rodgers
Lyrics: Oscar Hammerstein II

How do you solve a problem like Maria?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means Maria?
A flibbertigibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Many a thing you know you'd like to tell her
Many a thing she ought to understand
But how do you make her stay
And listen to all you say
How do you keep a wave upon the sand

Oh, how do you solve a problem like Maria?
How do you hold a moonbeam in your hand?

[billethkid]

Originally Posted by $EGeownz

Has all the electrical power been restored @ The Villages? I have a new portable generator capable of running everything in a house and then some.Prior to Irma I was thinking of selling it w/my house here in CT. when I come down, due to many stating the Villages hasn't lost power [I]since for ever [/but now I don't know.

I treat my generator cost(s) as if they were home owners insurance.
Hoping to never use either one.
If I had one in Connecticut or any place else it would be coming to TV....
Ya just never know!

[patfla06]

Unfortunately it reminds me of the early 2000's when we had one scare after another.

Hurricane Charlie was really a nail biter.
Didn't know where it would hit and was a Cat 4.

[justjim]

The Weather Channel is now showing models that takes Maria out to the North Atlantic. This is very good news.

[Taltarzac725]

Originally Posted by justjim

The Weather Channel is now showing models that takes Maria out to the North Atlantic. This is very good news.

Hurricane Maria Takes Aim at Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands - NBC News

Why do I keep thinking of The Sound of Music? How do u solve - YouTube

National Hurricane Center

Maria looks prone to hit the Carolinas to me and not Florida.

[justjim]

Originally Posted by justjim

The Weather Channel is now showing models that takes Maria out to the North Atlantic. This is very good news.

Whoa! I didn't mean to downplay Maria hitting those folks in the Caribbean who have already suffered more than their share. However, hurricane Maria missing the U.S. mainland is good news.

[Kazmi]

I just hope that she doesn't bounce around like Irma did that led her in our direction. All the models are still based on Jose impacting her direction and he's losing strength (Mike's Weather Page).

[tuccillo]

The latest cycle of the NWS spectral code has Maria coming pretty close to the Outer Banks but the ECMWF code has it well out to sea. The solutions are quite different past about 8 days. It is still very early.

Originally Posted by Kazmi

I just hope that she doesn't bounce around like Irma did that led her in our direction. All the models are still based on Jose impacting her direction and he's losing strength (Mike's Weather Page).

[Taltarzac725]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

The latest cycle of the NWS spectral code has Maria coming pretty close to the Outer Banks but the ECMWF code has it well out to sea. The solutions are quite different past about 8 days. It is still very early.

I hope you will keep us informed tuccillo of your insights into these storms. Thank You!

[dewilson58]

Maria,

We are not open for business.

Sincerely,
The Villages

[Dan9871]

The latest GFS model track for Maria has it a bit further from the east coast 7 days from now than the one from this morning. The European track shows about the same thing. Maria is still a problem for PR. Model tracks for 7 days out can end up being different from what the final track is but for now both the US GFS and the European models show no east coast landfall.

[Kazmi]

My prayers go out to all in St Croix/US VI/PR. Maria is a Cat 5 175 MPH winds.