[barb1191]

Just received the following from a "brainiac" friend of mine who lives not far from TV. He dabbles (oh sure) in the storm patterns, etc and has just sent me the latest on a threatening storm.....Hope you find it helpful; I sure do especially having an empty home there (well maybe I understand a teenie-weenie bit of it.) Sheez....Carry on ...barb

Hurricane Diatribe
(possibly some good info)

10 degrees above the equator and 10 degrees below is a zone called the intertropical zone and this is a area of perpetual lows. While there are many factors that can effect a hurricane, willi willi, typhoon, tornado (all termed cyclonics) we do know that it all starts with a counterrotating low (above the equator) usually from the african desert.

As the cyclonics travel westward they are acted upon by several factors -- all well known. First there is the temp of the water which feeds and strengthens the rotation. Then there is the jet stream 300 mbs which steers and can sheer the top off a cyclonic and also there is land mass, where mountains (none in FL thus explaining 2005 Wilma’s damage) which slows down the travel and weakens the cyclonic action due to cooler land mass. Since the oceans are in a warming cycle (prob. a 10-20 yr. cycle) we can expect stronger and more cyclonic action.

As the cyclonic approaches the US the position of highs and lows and their speed from west to east will determine the ultimate path of the cyclonic, as will the winds aloft (300mbs) .

Generally speaking a strong high that encompasses FL (extending below the tip of FL) means the cyclonic will pass under FL (remember the cyclonic rotates counterclockwise and thehigh (anti-cyclonic) rotates clockwise, thus the combination like rotating gears spins the cyclonic west) this means it will probably end up in the Gulf of Mexico. If the cyclonic (hurricane) meets a trough of low pressure prior to getting to Fl it will probably turn east. If it happens prior to the cyclonic reaching FL then it will end up in the Atlantic (hopefully not Bermuda).

In the Gulf of Mexico the hurricane will usually strengthen due to hotter water temps and continue west till landfall near TX. However, behind every high is a trough emanating from a low. The trough moving east will effect the cyclonic in the Gulf of Mexico by causing it to turn eastward (called hooking in the case of cyclonics).

Thus surface analysis (500-850 mbs is critical in trying to predict the cyclonics path.

Remember that cyclonics can be 250 miles in diameter with hurricane winds out 100 miles, with winds 40-60 knots, and spawn cyclones and or tornados. Thus, those in it's approximate path need to be prepared.

Well this is more info than most of you needed or wanted, but some have shown an interest in how it all works, thus the diatribe.

Peter Terletzky