Value Of Real Estate In TV

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  #1  
Old 03-21-2015, 10:37 AM
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Default Value Of Real Estate In TV

If one bought a home in TV for aprroximately 200K, (using a round number), in 2015 and for the sake of of discussion, build-out was finally completed in 2020,
what would the value of your home be going forward?

I know real estate has increased approximately 27% in the last year and a half but I am curious as to what may happen to home values, going into the future.

Some people have stated they think values will decrease, as the developer may not support TV, any longer. I don't believe that type of thinking.

I think prices will continue to go upward as they will more demand than supply, going forward, with a lot more people entering the retirement years.

BTW - I don't have a dog in what may turn into a disagreement, as I am a frog and don't plan, on ever leaving.
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Old 03-21-2015, 10:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2BNTV View Post
If one bought a home in TV for aprroximately 200K, (using a round number), in 2015 and for the sake of of discussion, build-out was finally completed in 2020,
what would the value of your home be going forward?

I know real estate has increased approximately 27% in the last year and a half but I am curious as to what may happen to home values, going into the future.

Some people have stated they think values will decrease, as the developer may not support TV, any longer. I don't believe that type of thinking.

I think prices will continue to go upward as they will more demand than supply, going forward, with a lot more people entering the retirement years.

BTW - I don't have a dog in what may turn into a disagreement, as I am a frog and don't plan, on ever leaving.
If we knew the answer to this...................we all could become millionaire's!
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  #3  
Old 03-21-2015, 11:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bogie Shooter View Post
If we knew the answer to this...................we all could become millionaire's!
I'll wager a number of Villagers were already millionaires when they moved here. They knew a good thing when they saw it!
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Old 03-21-2015, 11:07 AM
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The answer is nobody knows. There are so many variables that even Mark Morse has no control over. For instance; what will the IRS finally decide and who will pay the penalty and interest? Other factors that are outside of the developers control are sinkholes and sinkhole insurance, water supply, new road construction.

Also, what will happen when Morse turns over all the amenities south of CR466 and at what price? The next few years could be interesting.
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Old 03-21-2015, 12:39 PM
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My observation for the past 4 years the home we own has appreciated around 25 to 30 % of our original purchase price
If we were to sell I would say the amount we have paid in taxes amenity fees insurance the past 4 years would equal break even.
If we had a mortgage and paid monthly interest would amount to a loss.
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Old 03-21-2015, 01:33 PM
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My opinion only. The Villages will still own all the commercial real estate along 441, 466 and 466A, Spanish Springs, Lake Sumter Landing, and Brownwood. What do you think the annual revenue from all that commercial space equals? I would guess somewhere around 75 to 100 million? This is only a guess doing a very limited sample and extrapolation. As long as they own that or any entity has that kind of cash flow, it will always be in their best interest to maintain the things that cause the residential market to retain value. Landscape, cleanliness, amenities, Country Clubs, golf trails, and anything else that keeps The Villages in high demand.

So IMHO my best guess is that when build out is complete there will still be a high demand for fewer available homes. So far that formula has always caused prices to go higher.
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Old 03-21-2015, 02:51 PM
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[QUOTE=2BNTV;1032185
I know real estate has increased approximately 27% in the last year and a half but I am curious as to what may happen to home values, going into the future.
[/QUOTE]
That's when I bought my house. How can I find out if it went up 27%? How did you find out? Did you look at comps? Did all the houses go up or just the villas?
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Old 03-21-2015, 03:50 PM
mgcsooner mgcsooner is offline
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Just my guess but the demand would far outstrip the supply of homes. There are going to be more retirements in the next 5-8 years than ever, and there are just too many headed for FL. So for the next 5-8 years, I'd guess annual appreciation of 6-10% a year, slightly higher than it's been for the last 5-8.

For many that lease for 4 or more months, they're already at the break even point of just buying now and forgoing the appreciation. That's why so many rent out, to help defray the costs until they can finally make the big move.

I doubt sinkholes etc will factor in much as they are sporatic and throughout FL. The nation's economy is most likely the biggest threat, should a recession hit lots of second homes historically go on the market.

The other factor is continued expansion of TV. While it seems like it's boxed in, there are lots of large properties adjacent or close to TV that people are not going to hold onto for ever. TV would probably pay more for it than anyone else, but then many of them are unrealistic in asking prices. A recession or property inheritance may move up those properties sooner than many think too. Given the opportunity, I find it very difficult to image why TV would not continue to expand as long as it could acquire property for fair values. But to buy land at outrageous prices only further increases the per property cost they'd have to pass along.

Once TV buildout is reached, adjacent undeveloped property is not likely to increase, but instead decrease. Being right next to TV is not worth any more than being 5 minutes away if all other factors such as shopping and major road access are just as good. And 5 minutes away the $/Acre is much lower. Holdouts will not be happy they did so. Again, just my opinion and marketing 101.
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