Originally Posted by BrianL99 (Post 2407908)

I disagree, specifically as it pertains to The Villages pre-owned home market.

As people are fond of proclaiming, "The Village market is different than a traditional market". It is, in some ways.

While "Days of Inventory" is one of the most critical considerations when characterizing most any sort of market, consideration has to be given to the historical average vs current conditions. Not an absolute statement that a 4-6 months supply equals a healthy market.

The days of when 4-6 months supply equal a healthy market in a desirable area, are long gone. That might work in Peoria, but it doesn't in Metro Boston, NY, LA, or any other large metro market, that's seen huge appreciation in the post-Covid world. IMO, The Villages falls into that category. 4-6 months supply of inventory in TV, is a harbinger of rapidly declining prices.

Originally Posted by Jayhawk (Post 2407917)

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

Originally Posted by BrianL99 (Post 2407922)

Less than 1% of homes are generally on the market at any given time. 3% for sale, would mean there is a 3 year supply of homes for sale. The sky would fall.

Originally Posted by Jayhawk (Post 2407917)

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

Originally Posted by Jayhawk (Post 2407917)

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

Originally Posted by tophcfa (Post 2407719)

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

Originally Posted by BrianL99 (Post 2407810)

I think it's perfectly clear how it will play out, it's the same basic premises that has defined Economics for centuries, Supply & Demand.

The real estate folks are great at quoting and posting all this noise about how pricing has not changed much over the last year, but where their reasoning falls apart, is they're not looking at "Days Supply", which is really the number that matters. When I bought in TV 4 years ago, I think the Days Supply was in the 30 day range ... now it's probably in the 90 day range.

Homes don't go on the market for "fun" ... they go on the market because people need to sell for one reason or another. The vast majority of homes on the market will eventually sell, for that very reason ... and prices will drop until they do.

Originally Posted by Pairadocs (Post 2407936)

There's also that old saying in the real estate business: it doesn't matter what the owner thinks his/her property is "worth", or what the agent thinks he/her can "get". They all sell eventually regardless of the market, when they are priced at an amount someone will pay ! The amount someone is willing to pay is the only genuine "valuation" of most anything, land, home, auto, or household item !

Originally Posted by Normal (Post 2407939)

And part of the calculus of a home buyer is the lending rate which will stubbornly stick around for a while. Inflation stats for January show a rate of 2.9 percent and more than 50% of the homes purchased here are financed through a mortgage. Dr. Horton has managed to skirt this a little by offering tiered rates for their new construction sales.

Originally Posted by Pairadocs (Post 2407940)

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.

Originally Posted by justjim (Post 2407934)

The number of homes is probably closer to 60,000 rather than 50,000. I read that it is not unusual in a retirement community to have 3% of occupied homes for sale.

Originally Posted by Pairadocs (Post 2407940)

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.