I think the available housing stock in the villages is probably growing faster than the net migration rate of old people into Florida. I have no data, just a guess.

Most of this has little effect on those of us who moved here, paid cash for our homes, and hope to remain in the same house the rest of our lives.

That's true everywhere but what you make in the sell, you give up in the purchase.
We are set to buy here in the villages as soon as our home up in Atlanta sells.. been on the market too long now. :(

ONLY if you don't change the market areas involved.

I believe those that have view sites are gaining more equity than the interior lots. With list/sale prices up so high on preowned homes since 2021 it makes it much more difficult to afford two homes and it is hurting the market. Investors both for rentals and flippers who purchased as they had been from 2021 until now have lost money if they took out a mortgage and many of those homes are now flooding the market. I also believe from watching the market that the builder has slowed way down on construction of spec homes which have stayed on the market for too long and it has forced people to build providing a steady flow of new sales. The developer is historically educated, they know the market and play it like a fiddle!

Problem with build lots there are 40+ names per lot

This sounds quite "sky is falling" -- high inventory is not a problem for me at all, since I'm not selling and have no intention of selling for the very foreseeable future. It could well be a "problem" for sellers to the extent they don't get as much gain as they'd like, and can be seen as a real problem for someone who is selling at a loss, which so far has not been demonstrated as a real problem (if I've overlooked data proving this wrong, so be it). In sum, this thread seems to have created a crisis mentality in some.

Only view lots...because flippers are still competing for them.

Circumstances
 

We were interested in selling but discovered we would get less than what we paid for our home because we live in Dabney and the home was done in 2023. There is no crisis for us though because we have a home in Clearwater for our boat and we can bounce back and forth. The “crisis mentality “ would be for those who have to sell. We don’t have to. We were a little disappointed in our location but it really is inconsequential when we don’t have to sell and the market isn’t doing that well in our area right now. Hey, it could be worse. We have friends with a condo who are basically looking fairly distressed over their situation.

I think this is a key point, for a few friends/neighbors, their homes for sale are listed at a "make me move" price.

Otherwise they're fine as is.

Sad, but we knew it was coming. The Villages continued growth (down south) kills the housing market with a huge supply vs demand. The value of everyone's house goes down until they're done building.

They will never be done building in our lifetime. Why should they when there is money to be made.

Wouldn’t think a flipper would wait for a new build, tying up money for 4-6 months to close, then wait for 12 more months to flip, especially with today’s interest rate. Out of the 20 plus build lots we tried for all still have the original owners going on 3 years. Specs with a view started selling @ 6 months with 6 months extended close.

Every new village gets the usual spec buy/rental, since we first came in 07. Our neighborhood in 2010, had far more % of rentals/flippers then any of the next 4 villages.

No explosion of inventory in TV.

This could cause an expansion.
(no click bait here)

Powell raises an alarm on housing: As the conversation turned to housing affordability, senators heard pointed commentary from the chair, who warned that in "10 or 15 years," there would be parts of the country where residents would be unable to get mortgages as insurers continue to pull out of flood and fire-prone regions that are too expensive to insure — a requirement of most mortgages. Something, Powell added, the Fed has no power to fix.

This is actually the case for people who bought in the peak buying frenzy (2022-ish). Prices exploded. If those people have to sell now for one reason or another, I have seen numerous cases of the house selling for less than what they paid. But again, this is very specific to those who bought at the peak and MUST sell now. The market has been correcting for the last year, but it will find its level again.

If the percentage of houses for sale stays relatively constant, the inventory will always go up, because the number of total houses in TV always goes up.